The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Tuesday features an eight-game slate starting at 7:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Yuseki Kikuchi ($9,300) Toronto Blue Jays (-182) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s always nice when the top pitchers also have strong matchups, which is the case with Kikuchi today. He’s been incredible this season, with a 2.60 ERA and similar ERA predictors along with a 26% strikeout rate.
He also gets to face the White Sox, the worst overall offense in baseball with a wRC+ of 74. They’ve managed to be even worse against lefties, with their wRC+ dropping to an absurd 60, and their strikeout rate is slightly higher than against right-handed pitching.
This makes Kikuchi the clear top play today at a relatively affordable salary. Chicago is implied for just 3.1 runs, by far the lowest mark on the slate. While Kikuchi will come in with fairly high ownership, it’s hard to make the case for fading him today.
Kikuchi leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models in median and ceiling projection and is an excellent play for cash games and GPPs. For tournaments, it will be important to get contrarian elsewhere, however.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
MLB DFS Value Pick
Cal Quantrill ($6,000) Colorado Rockies (+115) at Oakland A’s
Pitching for the Rockies has to be one of the worst jobs in baseball. Not only are roughly half of your games at Coors Field, but you also play in the NL West, where all four division rivals rank inside the top-ten offenses in baseball.
Despite that, Quantrill has been remarkably productive this season. He has a 3.66 ERA despite being a pitch-to-contact pitcher with just a 16.7% strikeout rate. That’s translated to a DraftKings points-per-game average of 12.9 — not exciting, but reasonably solid at his current price point.
The big factor for Quantrill here is the massive upgrade in going to Oakland. He now gets a Park Factor of 61 (50 is average) and pitcher-friendly weather on top of the matchup with baseball’s 20th-ranked offense.
Those are both big upgrades and aren’t priced into his salary on DraftKings, where he has a 99% Bargain Rating. He leads both models in Pts/Sal projection.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS GPP Pick
Clarke Schmidt ($8,400) New York Yankees (-161) vs. Seattle Mariners
“Pitchers against Seattle” continues to be a top GPP option thanks to the high-risk, high-reward nature of facing the Mariners offense. Seattle is a roughly league-average unit in terms of run scoring, but their absurd strikeout rate of 27.9% leads the league by a wide margin.
Fortunately, we have a pitcher in Schmidt well suited to take advantage of the Mariners today. He has an excellent 27% strikeout rate of his own, with just a 2.49 ERA. He hasn’t been quite as good in run prevention as his ERA indicated, but his 3.52 xFIP and 3.39 SIERA are also excellent.
He’s also drastically underpriced following his eight shutout innings against the Twins in his last appearance. He’s projecting just behind Kikuchi from a raw projection standpoint, but the $900 in savings makes him a better Pts/Sal option.
He brings slightly more risk than Kikuchi today, but is still an excellent choice for all contest types.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
The biggest story on today’s slate is the weather at Wrigley Field. Forecasts are calling for sustained winds of 25 mph out to left field, and temperatures in the mid 80s.
That’s absurdly good weather for hitters and is a big part of why this game’s total has risen to 11 (and is still trending upwards). Atlanta is now implied for 5.9 runs, but that number may continue to grow as money comes in on the over.
Of course, they’re a solid stack in any weather thanks to their top-ten overall offense and star-studded lineup. It’s not an ideal matchup with the Cubs Javier Assad ($7,700) and his 1.49 ERA, but his xFIP is a more reasonable 3.94.
If you can afford them, the Braves hitters are elite plays tonight.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Seiya Suzuki ($4,800) Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves (Charlie Morton
Obviously, the Cubs also get to play in the ideal hitting weather in Chicago. I’m interested in stacking them as well, which provides both a salary and ownership discount. I used PlateIQ to figure out who the best options are:
We prefer to target righties with the wind blowing out to left field, so it’s fortuitous that Suzuki also has the best numbers among the Cubs. He’s an excellent one-off, or starting point for Cubs stacks.
Danny Jansen C ($4,200) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox (Garret Crochet)
Jansen leads the catcher position in median projection in THE BAT today, slightly edging out the Braves’ D’Arnaud. That’s mostly due to his absurd splits against lefties and the matchup with southpaw Garret Crochet ($9,500).
While Crochet has been very good this year, Jansen is hitting .429 with a 1.042 OPS against lefties this season. Those are absurd numbers, especially considering his modest salary.
Luke Raley 1B/OF ($3,100) Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees (Clarke Schmidt)
In lineups that fade either of the two chalky pitchers today (Kikuchi and Schmidt), I’ll want exposure to opposing hitters. That’s difficult against Kikuchi given the futility of the White Sox but doable with the Mariners against Schmidt.
Considering his salary and positional flexibility, Raley is my favorite option. He’s projected to hit cleanup in the Mariners’ lineup and is batting .311 on the season. He’s easy to fit around Braves/Cubs stacks as well, making him an excellent leverage play.
