MLB DFS: Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings for May 21

The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.

They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.

Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.

Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.

Bargain Rating Picks

You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?

Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.

Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.

Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.

MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value

Jarred Kelenic ($2,800): Outfielder, Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves avoided a tragic four-game sweep at the hands of the San Diego Padres on Monday night, closing the series with a 3-0 win. They’ll be hoping to carry that momentum into Tuesday’s series opener versus the Chicago Cubs.

Jarred Kelenic didn’t play in Monday night’s win, but he did take to the field in the first half of the double-header. Although he had several hard-hit balls, the Braves outfielder totaled just one base hit in defeat. That’s analogous to Kelenic’s early-season performances, making him a natural progression candidate over the coming weeks.

The left-handed batting Kelenic has a robust analytics profile. He has above-average bat speed, barrel rate, and launch angle, which is contributing to an elite sweet spot percentage. Kelenic rates in the 90th percentile, making optimal contact 40.6% of the time. Still, he has just six extra-base hits this season.

Literally all of Kelenic’s run production has come off of righties, which is bad news for contact pitcher Javier Assad. In the hitter-friendly confines of Wrigley Field, we’re expecting Kelenic to deliver a breakout performance on Tuesday night.

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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks

Pitcher

Yusei Kikuchi ($9,300) vs. Chicago White Sox

After a disappointing start to the campaign, the Toronto Blue Jays are trying to climb back into the AL East race. Thankfully, they can turn to one of the top arms in their rotation, giving the ball to Yusei Kikuchi in tonight’s inter-divisional battle versus the Chicago White Sox.

His record might not reflect it, but Kikuchi has been a calming presence in an otherwise tumultuous period. Through nine starts, the southpaw has a sterling 2.60 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, albeit with a less impressive 2-3 record. Nevertheless, Kikuchi has one of the best analytics profiles on the staff, propping up ongoing success, and we’re expecting more wins to follow his superb efforts.

Kikuchi is walking a sustainable path with his current form. His actual ERA is on par with his expected value of 2.72, while he posts solid underlying metrics. The former All-Star ranks in the 73rd percentile in strikeout rate, 60th percentile in hard-hit rate, and 86th percentile in walk rate.

We’ve seen the best Kikuchi has to offer over his recent sample. He’s allowed just four earned runs and 18 baserunners over his last 18.1 innings pitched, translating to a 1.96 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. More importantly, he’s poised to continue that electric run against the worst-hitting team in the majors.

Kikuchi stands well above the rest of the starting pitchers on the main slate, leading our median and ceiling projections.

Hitter

Shohei Ohtani ($6,500) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

The Los Angeles Dodgers are exactly what we expected them to be this season. Night in and night out, the Dodgers trot out one of the most competitive rosters in the bigs. Led by Shohei Ohtani, we’re anticipating another raucous effort against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Ohtani is poised to break a few records this season. If he maintains his current form he could become just the second player to win the MVP award in both leagues. Further, he could be the first to do so as a designated hitter. Through the first two months of the season, the Japanese national has a career-best 1.077 OPS and shows no signs of slowing down either.

Listen to this MVP-worthy list of analytics: Ohtani ranks in the 100th percentile in five different advanced metrics. Specifically, he’s the best in baseball in expected weighted on-base average, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage, and barrel and hard-hit rates. Naturally, that correlates with elite run production. Ohtani has already accounted for 70 runs, driving in 33 and coming around to score 37 more.

Somehow, the Dodgers slugger has elevated his profile even higher. In the month of May, Ohtani has a mind-numbing 1.207 OPS, including a .729 slugging percentage, with 14 RBI across his first 69 plate appearances. We’re betting that Ohtani bolsters his MVP resume with another strong showing on the main slate.

More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers

One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.

A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.

For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.

MLB DFS Pitcher

Charlie Morton ($8,100) vs. Chicago Cubs

When the dust eventually settles on Charlie Morton’s career, we may be talking about him in the same breath as Jamie Moyer. The 40-year-old remains a relevant force in the Braves’ starting rotation and consistently brings his best stuff to the mound. We’re expecting as much on Tuesday, as Morton corrals an ineffective Cubs squad at Wrigley Field.

Morton has a steady approach from the bump. The two-time All-Star hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in any of his past five starts, tossing four quality starts along the way. Over that stretch, Morton has posted a Cy Young-worthy 2.48 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, with a more modest 2-1 record. We’re anticipating more wins as Morton continues his fine stretch of pitching.

Further, the Cubs don’t possess the offensive wherewithal to knock Morton off his stride. Chicago has the seventh-worst OPS over the past week, totaling a paltry 17 runs in five games. Desperation is starting to set in for the Cubbies, as they pulled of a slew of roster moves to start the week in an attempt to spur growth.

Unfortunately for them, that’s not coming in Tuesday’s showdown against Morton and the Braves. The veteran righty remains a quality arm in his 17th MLB season and presents as the preeminent value arm on the main slate.

Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.

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MLB DFS Hitters

Corbin Carroll ($4,700) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Corbin Carroll has been stuck in a Rookie of the Year slump this season. The 23-year-old has a .529 OPS that would warrant demotion to Triple-A for virtually any other youngster. Still, the Diamondbacks believe in their slugger, and so do we.

Carroll enters Tuesday’s intra-divisional affair on a modest three-game hitting streak, with two of those three hits going for a triple. DFS punters can use that hot streak to their advantage before the rest of the fantasy world catches on to Carroll’s renewed production.

Of course, there’s an analytics perspective to support ongoing success. Carroll is 70 points off of his expecting slugging percentage and even further off his career average of .456. Furthermore, the left-handed batting outfielder gets to tee off righty Gavin Stone and his 3.97 expected ERA.

This is the start of something big for Carroll as he continues his ascent back to fantasy relevancy. Now is the time to back the Diamondbacks’ cornerstone before everyone catches onto his current form.

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Julio Rodriguez ($5,000) vs. New York Yankees

The Seattle Mariners are in the midst of a 10-game East Coast road trip, taking advantage of the hitter-friendly dimensions of Yankee Stadium to start the week. Julio Rodriguez has been an offensive catalyst over the M’s recent sample and should continue swinging his hot bat on Tuesday.

J-Rod has been sensational lately. He enters the AL battle against the New York Yankees on an eight-game hitting streak, totaling 13 hits, five runs, and three RBI over that stretch. That’s without considering his base-stealing ability of power swing, both of which he’s flaunted in 2024. Rodriguez has eight stolen bases since the start of the season, rediscovering his power stroke with a double and a homer over his eight-game sample.

Clarke Schmidt has been less effective at home this season. His ERA jumps from 1.47 on the road to 4.05 at Yankee Stadium, underscoring J-Rod’s fantasy potential on Tuesday night. Schmidt’s troublesome look bodes well for Rodriguez, as he looks to extend his current hitting streak to nine games and end the night as one of the top fantasy performers on the main slate.