The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a five-game slate starting at 6:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Tyler Glasnow ($10,400) Los Angeles Dodgers (-302) vs. Cincinnati Reds
On a short main slate, Tyler Glasnow is the clear model favorite among the top tier pitchers. He has impressed this season for the Dodgers with a 6-1 record, 2.53 ERA, and 0.86 WHIP.
Glasnow continues to post high whiff rates with a 33.6 K% this season, leading the National League at 73 strikeouts. That fantasy scoring upside has produced a +1.56 average Plus/Minus on the season, even with his high salaries.
Durability is always a concern for the righty. His 21 starts last season were by far the most of his nine-year career. Thus far, Glasnow has lasted at least five innings in every start and averages seven completed sides over his last four games.
The model loves Glasnow tonight against a Reds team with very low hit and run projections. Vegas agrees, as Cincinnati has the lowest implied run total on the slate.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Taijuan Walker ($6,300) Philadelphia Phillies (-149) vs. New York Mets
We are low on options on a short slate, so the model likes Taijuan Walker as a bargain play against the Mets. The veteran Phillies starter has amassed a 3-0 record in three starts this season but has been bolstered by strong run support from his teammates.
Walker has a 4.82 ERA and 1.34 WHIP through 18.2 innings in 2024. He joined the team late after a right shoulder injury kept him sidelined to start the season and allowed six earned runs in his first outing on April 28.
The model expects Walker to improve on his .559 xSLG and .379 xwOBA allowed tonight against a Mets team that has struggled against right-handed pitching. Their projected lineup has a .114 ISO and .287 wOBA against righties this season.
Walker is worth a shot at the bottom of the salary chart tonight in all formats.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Cristian Javier ($7,800) Houston Astros (-210) vs. Oakland Athletics
The 27-year-old Astros hurler has been inconsistent out of the gate while missing some time due to injury. Cristian Javier has a 2-1 record with a 4.01 ERA and 1.42 WHIP in five starts this season.
Javier showed incredible strikeout potential with a 33.2 K% in 2022, but those numbers have declined to 23.1% in 2023 and a disappointing 16.7% so far in 2024. The model expects that number to rise against an Athletics lineup with a 25.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching.
In his last start, his first since coming back from injury, Javier lasted just 1.1 innings and allowed seven runs and two long bombs. He’s allowed just four total runs in his other four starts combined. The model likes Javier to get back on track tonight against Oakland. Take advantage of his dip in salary.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Houston Astros:
Houston is a popular stack option on many days throughout the season. With a small five-game main slate tonight, expect the Astros and Dodgers to be heavy stack favorites in fantasy lineups.
The Astros take on 22-year-old rookie Joey Estes making his fourth big league start. The Athletics right-hander was impressive in his lone appearance this season with five solid innings against the Mariners on May 11. He allowed just two hits and one earned run for a 0.40 WHIP.
The Astros lineup will be a different beast tonight. Kyle Tucker continues to mash with a .403 OBP and even 1.000 OPS this season. His outfield mate Yordan Alvarez is among league leaders with a .556 xSLG and 92.8 average exit velocity.
In his 14th season, Jose Altuve is off to one of his best starts, batting .312/.374/.491, and he sits second in the American League with 54 hits. Alex Bregman and Yainer Diaz round out the stack as lower-end values.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Bryce Harper 1B ($5,400) Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (Jose Quintana)
The Phillies have a plus matchup tonight at home against Jose Quintana. The Mets’ left-hander is 1-4 with a 5.44 ERA and 1.55 WHIP on the season. He allowed three home runs in his last start on May 10.
Bryce Harper is a model favorite tonight to take advantage of the matchup. He has 10 home runs on the season and eight of those have come at home. He is hitting .313/.404/.650 at home this season.
Yandy Diaz 1B ($3,900) Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox (Cooper Criswell)
Yandy Diaz set career marks across the board last season. So far, 2024 has not lived up to his gaudy 2023 numbers, but Diaz still has the potential to score fantasy points. He has a +3.14 average Plus/Minus over his last 10 games with at least nine DraftKings points in four of his last five.
Diaz faces Red Sox righty Cooper Criswell on the mound. Criswell is 2-1 with a 2.10 ERA and 1.01 ERA in six appearances this season. He keeps this hit counts down but has allowed three home runs over his last 9.1 innings of work.
Jarren Duran OF ($4,600) Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays (Zack Littell)
Fantasy players looking for a low ownership hitting option could land on Jarren Duran. The Red Sox outfielder brings versatility at the plate and on the base paths for fantasy potential. He ranks in the top 5 of American League hitters with 11 doubles, nine stolen bases, and six triples this season.
The Red Sox face Tampa Bay righty Zack Littell. Littell is 2-2 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. He has one of the lowest hard hit rates in the league, but Duran’s speed trumps the need to hit the ball out of the ballpark for fantasy owners.
