On Thursday night, there is just one game on the NBA schedule as the Conference Semifinals continue. The Timberwolves and the Nuggets clash in Game 6 of their series at 8:30 p.m. ET in Minneapolis. The Nuggets are 2.5-point favorites after winning the last three games in the series, including the two in Minnesota, and the game total is 203.5.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.
Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Stud Picks
This series has plenty of star power, starting at the top with MVP Nikola Jokic. Jokic is the biggest star in the series and comes with the biggest salary, but there’s easily a case to be made that he belongs as your Captain Pick. His massive salary makes the rest of your lineup tricky for sure, but he has been the most productive player across the board in the playoffs.
In this contest, Jokic has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all the players on the slate by a wide margin. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the utility spot. His production has been so incredible that it’s hard to pass him up at least as a utility play.
He has averaged 1.66 DraftKings points per minute so far in the postseason and dramatically exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games while helping the Nuggets turn an 0-2 deficit into a 3-2 series lead. Jokic had his best game of the series on Tuesday with 40 points, 13 assists, seven rebounds, and 76.75 DraftKings points. No one can match his raw production potential, and he continues to grow his legacy as one of the all-time greats. With a chance to close out the series and move on to the Western Conference Finals, the Joker should deliver another monster game.
Even though Jokic and the Nuggets have turned the series around, Jamal Murray is still struggling. He has only scored 20 points one time in the series and is averaging only 0.87 DraftKings points per minute in this series after producing 1.07 DraftKings points per minute in the first round.
He is playing through a calf injury, which may be limiting him to some degree, and he is officially questionable for this contest. Murray has shown a flair for the dramatic and still brings a high ceiling although he hasn’t been able to reach it in his most recent contests. He has the third-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections on this slate and the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus in a utility spot.
On the other side of this matchup, Timberwolves’ superstar Anthony Edwards brings the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections behind only Jokic, and he also brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus and Pts/Sal at a utility spot. Building with Edwards as your Captain’s Pick and Jokic in a utility spot gives you much more salary than going with Jokic as Captain, but Edwards will need to bounce back from a rough shooting night in Game 5 for that roster build to work.
Edwards has posted over 63 DraftKings points twice in the series (Game 1 and Game 4), but he only managed 37 DraftKings points on 18 points in Game 5 while shooting 5-of-15 from the field. He has been held under 20 points in two of his last three games but exploded for 44 points and 64.75 DraftKings points in Game 4. He’ll need another big game like that to help Minnesota avoid elimination.
Of all the players on both sides, Edwards has a game-high 31.9% usage projection. He is averaging 30.6 points, 6.2 rebounds, 6.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 0.8 blocks while playing 40.4 minutes per game in nine playoff games. He has a 29.8% usage rate in the playoffs and has produced 1.28 DraftKings points per minute.
Karl-Anthony Towns returned from his long injury layoff just before the postseason and has been ramping up to a full workload in the playoffs. He has played 38 minutes in each of the last two games, though, and appears to be back at full strength, which is enough to make him a stud to consider in Game 6.
He struggled with his shot in the two home games in this series, especially in Game 4 when he went just 5-for-18 from the field. However, he had a strong showing in Game 5 in Denver, pouring in 23 points on 10-of-19 shooting and adding good non-scoring numbers to get to 40.5 DraftKings points. He had his best game of the series in Game 2 with 51.5 DraftKings points, but had under 40 DraftKings points in his other three games in the series.
Towns is averaging 1.04 DraftKings points per minute so far this series, and he brings the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus in a utility spot behind just Jokic and Edwards. He’s just a little cheaper than Murray and a solid alternative to the Nuggets’ struggling guard.
If you build around Jokic, you can either go with one other star in utility or balance with other starters. If you go with Ant or Towns, it’s more possible to include Jokic in a flex spot as long as you find big-time value in other spots. Another workable strategy is to include both stars as utility plays and find your captain from a mid-range play you think will step up.
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NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks
The Timberwolves’ backcourt will be the big injury situation to watch coming into Game 6. Mike Conley was a late addition to the injury report on Tuesday and was unable to play through Achilles soreness, missing Game 5. He had been having a strong series with at least six assists in each game and a double-double in Game 1.
If he returns, it will take some of the play-making pressure off of Edwards and make Conley a solid utility play and potential Captain, but he is officially listed as Questionable with a Soleus strain. If he’s out again, Nickeil Alexander-Walker will likely get another start. NAW played 39 minutes in his place on Tuesday and finished with 14 points and 29.5 DraftKings points. While that production isn’t elite, that many minutes gives him a very high ceiling if he’s called upon for another start in Game 6.
Alexander-Walker is only $5,000 in a utility spot and would be the cheapest starter available if he’s in the lineup. He even makes sense in a Captain’s Pick spot if you think he can have a big game at home. You can put him at Captain and still have Jokic and Edwards in utility spots. NAW has over 27 DraftKings points in four of his nine playoff games.
Rudy Gobert is another productive option in the Wolves’ starting five, although he’s obviously had to be focused on slowing Jokic down on the defensive end. He has still managed to exceed salary-based expectations in three of his four games in the series (missing one for the birth of his child). Gobert had a double-double in each of the last two games and posted a playoff-high 45.25 DraftKings points in Game 5. After the four stars covered above, he has the best Projected Plus/Minus of the starters.
Jaden McDaniels always gets plenty of minutes with the Timberwolves’ starting five but his usage is usually low. He has scored at least nine points in three straight games and exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four. He’ll be the cheapest starter if Conley is able to return and is a good way to get upside since he always gets plenty of minutes.
With Murray struggling a bit, the Nuggets supporting cast has come up huge. Aaron Gordon has exceeded salary-based expectations in all four games in the series and has the sixth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players in the utility spot, behind just Gobert and the four stars. Gordon had 27 points in Game 4 and an 18-point, 10-rebound double-double in Game 5, exceeding salary-based expectations by double-digit DraftKings points in each contest. He is a great Captain’s Pick from this tier or a strong utility play if you go with only one star and put him in your Captain’s spot.
Michael Porter Jr. has scored under 10 points in each of the last two games as Gordon has picked up more work, but he still brings a high ceiling as well. He’s a little overpriced according to our projections, especially since Gordon has been better lately and comes cheaper. Still, MPJ showed plenty of offensive potential against the Lakers in the first round and can be a good source of leverage if he steps back into a more expanded role.
For the Nuggets, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope plays a similar high-minute, low-usage role to McDaniels for the Timberwolves. He had 16 points in Game 5 and has spike scoring potential even though his primary responsibilities are on the defensive end. McDaniels is a little cheaper, and their projections are very close across the board. I’d give McDaniels a slight edge, but KCP is a more proven playoff performer. He has averaged just 0.55 DraftKings points per minute in the playoffs but is logging 34.8 minutes per game.
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NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Naz Reid ($5,600): Reid has played limited minutes in the series since KAT and Gobert have both been healthy. The exception was Game 2, when he stepped up with 31.25 DraftKings points in 29 minutes while Gobert was away from the team. He brings a huge ceiling if he gets an expanded role, but he has fallen short of salary-based expectations in seven of nine games this postseason. He’s just a little expensive given his current role.
- Christian Braun ($4,000): Braun has scored double-digit points in both of the last two games in this series, exceeding salary-based expectations with 16.75 DraftKings points in Game 4 and 25.25 DraftKings points in Game 5. After playing under 20 minutes in the Nuggets’ first eight games this postseason he played over 25 minutes in each of those two games. Braun’s minutes projection for Game 6 is 23.8 minutes, which should be enough to make him one of the best bargains on the board.
- Kyle Anderson ($3,200): Anderson played big minutes in Game 2 in the Timberwolves’ blowout win but has fallen well short of salary-based expectations in the rest of the games in this series. He’s a punt play who gets a few minutes, but barring a blowout or injury, he doesn’t look likely to be very involved.
- Justin Holiday ($2,800): Denver’s rotation has been pretty tight in the playoffs, but Holiday is playing 15-to-20 minutes per game off the bench. He exceeded salary-based expectations in three of the five games in this series, including two games with double-digit points. He didn’t score or even take a shot in Game 5, so he’s very boom or bust, but as a cheap bargain option, he’s one of the best plays under $3,000.
- Monte Morris ($2,200): Morris will likely step into a larger role in the rotation if Conley misses a second straight game. In Game 5, he exceeded salary-based expectations with six points, three assists, two rebounds, and 13 DraftKings points while playing a playoff-high 12 minutes. If Conley is out, he will be the best punt play on the board since he will likely step in as the primary backup behind Alexander-Walker.
