The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a twelve-game slate starting at 7:10 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Brady Singer ($8,800) Kansas City Royals (+127) at Seattle Mariners
It’s an interesting day for DFS pitcher selection, where the most talented pitcher(s) have tough matchups, and some second-tier arms have much better situations. One of those is Singer, who gets the privilege of taking on the free-swinging Mariners tonight.
Seattle is a slightly below-average offense overall, but their 28.4% strikeout rate leads the majors by a comfortable margin. That makes rostering pitchers against them a viable strategy. Even if Singer gives up a couple runs or fails to pick up the win bonus, he could easily lead the slate based on strikeouts.
Singers’ 25% strikeout rate is good but not elite, but it’s more than enough given the context of the matchup. He hasn’t been as good as his 2.36 ERA, but he also features solid ERA indicators that range from the very low fours to the mid threes.
He leads both the FantasyLabs and THE BAT models for median and ceiling today despite his low price, largely thanks to his slate-best K prediction.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Randy Vasquez ($6,000) San Diego Padres (-219) vs. Colorado Rockies
Randy Vasquez comes into the game with the best Vegas data on the slate. His Padres are the heaviest favorites on the board, and Colorado is tied for the lowest implied total at just 3.3 runs. That’s obviously worth paying attention to — especially at his extremely cheap salary.
That price tag is surprising not just because of the betting markets. Vasquez hasn’t been great this year through three starts, but his 4.50 ERA and 20.4% strikeout rate are both fine, and his underlying numbers are somewhat better in both departments.
We should see some of that positive regression hit tonight against an awful Rockies lineup. Colorado ranks 28th in wRC+ as a team and now has to play in pitcher-friendly San Diego instead of the offense-boosting Rocky Mountain air. Colorado trails only Seattle in strikeout rate, which gives Vasquez some sneaky upside as well.
He leads THE BAT’s projections for Pts/Sal on Monday and is an excellent cash game play with some mild GPP potential.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Shota Imanaga ($9,300) Chicago Cubs (+124) at Atlanta Braves
Imanaga is by far the best pitcher on the slate. He has an absurd 1.08 ERA with a still-excellent xERA of 2.31. He also leads the slate in swinging strike rate at 14.7% while coming in second with his 26.9% strikeout rate. That number is due for some positive regression as well.
The problem is the matchup. He draws the dangerous Braves, a top-ten overall offense that hits even better against lefties. Vegas is taking a cautious approach in lining this one, with the Cubs as slight underdogs and the Braves total a moderate 4.2 runs. Of course, some of that is expected to come off the Cubs bullpen.
Still, the matchup makes it hard to stomach paying up for Imanaga in tighter builds. While good pitching tends to beat good hitting, it’s still somewhat less likely he turns in another slate-breaking performance. However, with his ownership projecting outside of the top five, he’s worth a flier for large-field GPPs.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Arizona Diamondbacks:
There isn’t really an obvious team to stack today, as we have a handful of teams with implied run totals in the high fours but nobody well ahead of the field.
One of those teams is the Diamondbacks, who have a 4.7-run implied total at home tonight against Graham Ashcraft ($7,600) of the Reds. Ashcraft comes into the game with a 3.86 ERA, but he has been somewhat worse than that with an xERA over 4.
Arizona is also fairly affordable at the top, which isn’t the case for most of the teams with similar implied totals. I’ll have some Arizona stacks tonight, but it’s a good slate to mix and match your hitters with no obvious “best” team.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
JT Realmuto C ($5,200) Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
The Mets-Phillies game is projecting to be fairly low-scoring, but I have some interest in the Phillies’ side of things. Sean Manaea ($7,200) has a 3.31 ERA on the season, but his xERA and SIERA are both in the mid fours.
He’s also a lefty, so I used PlateIQ to see if any Philadelphia hitters stood out:
There’s a few options, but my favorite is Realmuto. He’s hitting .350 against lefties this year and providing that production at a position where it’s typically harder to find scoring. I’ll be building mini-stacks around other solid Philly hitters, though.
CJ Abrams SS ($5,800) Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox (Chris Flexen)
Washington has a solid 4.5-run implied total today despite the lack of big names in their lineup. Given the production from this team, it’s probable that a good chunk of that offense comes one way or another through Abrams.
He hit 18 home runs while stealing 47 bases last year and is on pace for similar numbers (with an uptick in power) in 2024. He’s also seen his batting average rise to .277 this season.
If you can find the salary, he’s an excellent play given the matchup with Chris Flexen ($5,800), who’s low salary tells you everything you need to know about his abilities.
Jonathan India 2B ($3,700) Cincinnati Reds at Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery)
The move to Arizona has not been kind to Montgomery, as he comes into the game with an ERA just under 5.00 and similar ERA indicators. The visiting Reds are implied for four runs, with India setting the table at the top of their lineup.
While India hasn’t been great, he’s too cheap for his role at the top of the order. He’s also been slightly better against lefties than overall while due for some positive regression in general. His BABIP of .273 this season is well below his career average and also too low for a player with his speed (14 stolen bases in 2023.)
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