The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Thursday features a three-game slate starting at 7:40 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Sonny Gray ($10,800) St. Louis Cardinals (-135) at Milwaukee Brewers
With only three games — and thus six pitchers — to choose from, we can’t be too picky on Thursday. The Brewers are one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking third in wRC+ as a team this season with a roughly-average strikeout rate.
However, Sonny Gray has absurd numbers on the season. His ERA is just 0.89 with a 33.3% strikeout rate. Those are both unsustainable, and his underlying metrics point to some regression — but not by much. His ERA indicators sit in the low twos, and his swinging strike rate translates to an expected strikeout rate in the upper 20s.
On a full slate, we could justify a fade of Gray because of those two factors: The matchup and some regression. However, he’s clearly the best raw play today, and the Brewers are one of just two teams with a total of fewer than four runs.
Gray easily leads both THE BAT and FantasyLabs projection sets in median and ceiling.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Michael Wacha ($7,100) Kansas City Royals (-115) at Los Angeles Angels
The case for Wacha is the inverse. He’s been bad with a 5.50 ERA and sub-20% strikeout rate. However, he’s due for some positive regression to his numbers, with his underlying metrics pointing to a “fair” ERA in the low fours.
He also has a much softer matchup. The Angels rank 19th in wRC+ as a team this season, but that’s misleading. Superstar Mike Trout played in roughly 80% of their games to date and is by far their best hitter. He’s on the IL, so the Angels are actually considerably worse than their full season numbers indicate.
Even in this matchup, Wacha doesn’t have much strikeout upside. On a normal slate, I’d be looking for riskier, higher-upside arms for GPPs. With just three games, that’s not really an option today, and Wacha is a fairly safe choice.
For GPPs, it’s probably optimal to pivot from either Gray or Wacha since that combination will garner significant combined ownership, but both are fairly obvious cash game locks.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Tobias Myers ($6,400) Milwaukee Brewers (+120) vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Myers is a 25-year-old rookie who’s struggled through his first three starts in the big leagues with a 6.23 ERA. His underlying numbers are slightly better, though still nothing to get excited about. He’s also the cheapest pitcher on the slate and projecting for the least ownership.
That last part is especially important on tonight’s tiny slate. Stranger things have happened than a rookie putting together his first solid start, and any reasonable score from Myers would provide massive leverage over the field. With the slate’s top pitcher (Gray) projecting for under 20 DraftKings points, a score in the low double digits at Myers’ salary and ownership would be a win.
He has a chance to do so tonight thanks to the excellent matchup against the Cardinals. Like the Angels, they’re a poor offensive unit, ranking 25th in wRC+. Also like the Angels, they lost their best hitter — catcher Willson Contreras — to injury, so they’re worse than their full season stats indicate.
This is a solid opportunity for a breakout game for Myers, even if that “breakout” is a score somewhere in the teens. He’s my favorite GPP play on this limited slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Cleveland Guardians:
We’re similarly limited on the hitting front, with the best implied total on the board the Guardians’ 4.5 runs. That makes them a bit overpriced relative to their likeliest outcome in the context of a normal slate, but we’re all operating with the same player pool tonight.
The Guardians have been a top-ten offense this year, and they have a winnable matchup against Erick Fedde ($8,500). Fedde has a 3.46 ERA through seven starts but somewhat worse ERA indicators.
There’s also some weather concerns in this game that could be good for hitters. A mid-game delay appears somewhat likely, which would disrupt the starters and force this into an extended bullpen game. Obviously there’s a risk they don’t make it back to the field, but that seems fairly unlikely.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Bobby Witt SS ($6,300) Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels (Reid Detmers)
The Royals are the other offense I’m interested in tonight. Their implied total is essentially the same as Cleveland’s, with the added benefit of their game being on the road. Reid Detmers ($8,700) is a somewhat similar matchup as well.
The issue with Kansas City is they don’t hit lefties well. They rank 27th against southpaws as a team, well below their overall ranking. I used PlateIQ to see if there’s any exceptions, however, and landed on Witt.
There’s a few other viable options on Kansas City, but given the relatively loose salary structure today, it’s worth it to spend up for their superstar shortstop.
Lars Nootbar OF ($3,900) St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers (Tobias Myers)
Of course, it’s also entirely possible that Myers is as bad as his early performance indicates. In that case, we’d want to load up on the Cardinals — or build a Cardinals-heavy lineup as a hedge if you have a lot of Myers.
Nootbar is probably the best option. He trails only Paul Goldschmidt 1B ($4,900) in median projection among the Cardinals while checking in a full $1,000 cheaper. I’ll have at least one lineup built around the Cardinals as a way to balance out my exposure to Myers.
