The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Lastly, be sure to check out PlateIQ — one of the most powerful research sources you can find for MLB DFS.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: What is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dairon Blanco ($2,700): Outfielder, Kansas City Royals
No offense to the crappy Houston Astros, but the Kansas City Royals are one of the most pleasant surprises in the MLB this season. KC has taken bigger steps in its development than many people anticipated, asserting themselves as AL Central contenders. The Royals are getting production throughout their lineup, leaving in-roads for bettors and DFS players alike.
One player worth including on DFS rosters on Thursday’s evening slate is Dairon Blanco. The Royals outfielder has been used intermittently this season but is projected to be in the starting lineup for tonight’s inter-divisional battle versus the Los Angeles Angels. And there’s plenty to like about Blanco.
Blanco’s best work comes versus lefties. He’s 3-for-8 off of southpaws, including his only two extra-base hits on the season. As a result, Blanco’s OPS jumps from .396 against righties to 1.069 versus lefties. Although he doesn’t have the most robust analytics profile, Blanco does have a top-end .440 expected slugging percentage and 38.1% sweet spot rating.
Tonight is the night to include Blanco on your DFS rosters. The hard-hitting righty can tee off of Reid Detmers and will be a menace on the base paths. On a short slate, Blanco can set your roster apart.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Sonny Gray ($10,800) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
There’s a reason why Sonny Gray’s salary is $2,000 more than the next closest pitcher tonight. The St. Louis Cardinals’ ace has propelled himself to the front of the NL Cy Young conversation thanks to his dominant early-season efforts. He’s worth the investment on the evening slate.
Gray has been lights out every time he’s toed the rubber this season. In five starts, the three-time All-Star has given up just six runs for a sterling 0.89 ERA. Coincidentally, that’s nearly identical to his WHIP, with Gray limiting opponents to just 0.86 walks and hits per inning pitched. More importantly, Gray has the analytics profile to match.
The soft-throwing righty is confusing batters with his six-pitch arsenal. Gray ranks in the 94th percentile in strikeout rate while inducing a 23.1% whiff rate on five of his six pitches. As a result, opposing hitters are barreling the ball just 4.2% of the time with a hard-hit rate of just 29.6%, putting Gray in the 82nd and 89th percentile, respectively.
It helps that the Milwaukee Brewers have been one of the freest swinging teams in the bigs. The Brew Crew sits in the bottom ten in strikeouts, embracing the pros and cons of modern day baseball. Still, on this occasion, we expect more of the latter as they struggle to knock Gray off his stride. The Cardinals’ ace leads our median and ceiling projections by a wide margin and should have no problem reaching the upper echelon of his stratosphere.
Hitter
Jose Ramirez ($6,000) vs. Chicago White Sox
Cleveland Guardians third baseman Jose Ramirez is slowly rounding into his perennial All-Star form. The four-time Silver Slugger heads into tonight’s AL Central battle versus the Chicago White Sox with five hits over his last four games and should build on those efforts at Guaranteed Rate Field.
It’s not just consistency that has returned to Ramirez’s game but also his power. Three of his last four hits have gone for extra bases, including two long fly balls. That’s brought his slugging percentage up to .445 on the season but still leaves him well short of his career benchmark of .498. That upward trend should continue against Erick Fedde.
Fedde rates as one of the worst analytics arms in the majors. His 9.3% barrel rate puts him in the bottom 25% of MLB pitchers, while his 21.0% chase rate leaves him in the bottom 7%. Moreover, nine of Ramirez’s 14 extra-base hits have come versus righties, including five of seven homers and 23 of 30 RBI.
Circumstances favor Ramirez tonight. The switch hitter is seeing the ball well over his recent sample, delivering game-changing performances over the past week. He’ll get his fair share of hittable pitches versus Fedde and should have no problem making those count for extra bases. We’re planting the FantasyLabs flag in Ramirez ending the night as one of the top fantasy performers.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Michael Wacha ($7,100) vs. Los Angeles Angels
Earlier, we gave credit to the Royals lineup for launching them to the top of the AL standings earlier than expected. But we can’t discount the pitching contributions from an impressive starting rotation and bullpen. Michael Wacha stands among those brooding forces, ready to improve on his unspectacular start last week versus the Texas Rangers.
Prior to his last start, Wacha was in pretty good shape. The veteran righty had a 4.24 ERA, keeping opponents mostly at bay with a 1.32 WHIP. Further, he had a couple of quality starts under his belt early in 2024, including an eight-strikeout performance against the lowly Chicago White Sox.
Although it came unglued versus the Rangers, it’s not a true reflection of what’s Wacha has demonstrated early this season. He hadn’t allowed more than four hits in any of his first three starts to the year and was operating in line with his 4.45 expected ERA.
Thursday is shaping up as a classic bounce-back spot for Wacha. He’s not as bad as we saw last time out, and he gets to take on an inferior Angels side that sits in the bottom half of the MLB in OPS and strikeouts. Wacha is the ideal buy-low candidate on the evening slate.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Dylan Carlson ($2,400) vs. Milwaukee Brewers
It’s been a tepid start to the season for Dylan Carlson. The Cardinals outfielder got a late start after rehabilitating a surgically repaired left ankle, but he returned to the lineup a few days. He has yet to record a hit in three games, but we’re betting he breaks out in a big way on Thursday.
As is the case with any injury, Carlson required a few games to get back up to game speed. But with a handful of at-bats under his belt and an ideal pitching matchup, the switch hitter rates highly in our value categories, including Projected Plus/Minus and Points/Salary.
Brewers probable starter Tobias Myers has been completely ineffective this season. Sadly, his 6.23 ERA is only slightly above his expected value of 5.28, and Myers has already given up five homers in 13.0 innings pitched.
Throughout his career, Carlson has been an above-average contact hitter. His 37.6% sweet spot rating puts him above the MLB average of 33.1%, and combined with his optimal launch angle, we’ve seen Carlson thrive under the right circumstances.
Thursday’s tilt against Myers and the Brew Crew is shaping up to be one of those ideal spots to roster Carlson. Myers doesn’t fool anyone with his stuff, and Carlson is due for a breakout. The Cards outfielder is one of our preferred value picks tonight.
Bobby Witt Jr. ($6,300) vs. Los Angeles Angels
We are adding to our Royals stack one final hitter — Bobby Witt Jr. The Royals offensive catalyst has thrust himself into the AL MVP conversation, and he’s projected to enhance his resume with another strong showing against the Halos.
Every part of Witt’s game is working right now. The Royals shortstop has put together the preeminent analytics profile, supporting ongoing success throughout the season. Already, Witt Jr. sits in the 99th percentile in expected batting average and slugging percentage, complementing that with a 98th and 97th percentile ratings in average exit velocity and hard-hit rate, respectively.
As we’ve seen, he has no problems translating that approach to tangible results. Witt Jr. sits among the elite hitters in the game with a .965 OPS, driving in 20 and scoring 30 more.
Detmers has had problems avoiding opposing batters’ barrels. His 9.4% rating strands him in the 24th percentile, benefiting Witt and the rest of the Royals lineup. He carries a hefty salary, but Witt is worth including in any format.
