NBA

NBA DFS Showdown Picks Breakdown (Wednesday, May 8)

Wednesday features Game 2 of the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers series. The Knicks held on to win Game 1 121-117, which was very high scoring for this Knicks team. The Pacers bring the pace to every game, which is why this total is a respectable 218.5 points. Expect another up-tempo atmosphere tonight.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

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NBA DFS Stud Picks

Any time you are in the conversation with Michael Jordan, you are doing something right. That is the case with Knicks’ point guard Jalen Brunson, who is the first player since Jordan to score 40+ points in four-straight playoff games. He also scored 39 points five games ago. Brunson is playing at an elite level and is the stud to target. He is averaging 42 points and 63.3 DraftKings points per game in his last five games.

Brunson has by far the highest projected ceiling in our Player model tonight. Not only is he projected to play over 43 minutes, but Brunson also has a 37.75% usage rate projection. Being the most aggressive offensive player on the floor, Brunson is the clear-cut best captain and flex option available. Despite being $18,000 in the captain slot, he has the highest projected ownership. Brunson is the best play on the slate.

Tyrese Haliburton continues to deal with back spasms, and it showed in Game 1. He had his worst playoff game this postseason, recording six points, eight assists, and two rebounds. Haliburton did capture four steals, but his usage rate was nonexistent at 9.2% despite playing 36 minutes. He is the only player listed as questionable, so make sure to monitor his status even though he has been playing through his ailment.

The good thing about Haliburton is it can’t get much worse than Game 1. Expect a bounce-back game from him tonight. He did lead the regular season in assists with 10.9 per game while also scoring over 20 points per game. We haven’t seen his true upside in a while, and this is a difficult matchup to showcase his skill set. Despite everything looking bleak Haliburton still has the second-highest projected ceiling tonight.

Priced just below Haliburton is his teammate Pascal Siakam at $10,200. Since being acquired by the Pacers in the middle of January, Siakam has led the team in both points and rebounds per game. He has continued that trend throughout the playoffs, averaging a near double-double with 21.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game while shooting 54.1% from the field. Siakam is the best Pacers player to target.

Siakam has the toughest individual matchup against his former teammate in Toronto, OG Anunoby. However, he had a pretty solid Game 1, stuffing the stat sheet with 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists while shooting 8-for-16 from the field. With Haliburton not 100% healthy, the Pacers need a big game out of Siakam to get this series tied at one game apiece. He is impossible to ignore even with a rising salary.

The last stud that is worth getting exposure to is Knicks’ Swiss army knife Josh Hart. It is incredible watching this 6’4″ forward attack the ball on the glass. He ranks fourth among all players in the playoffs with 12.4 rebounds per game. Hart plays nearly every minute and has doubled his scoring output from the regular season. He is averaging 17.9 points per game in the playoffs and shooting 44.7% from deep.

To no surprise, Hart is projected to play the most minutes in this game. The Pacers are an exploitable matchup both from a scoring and rebounding perspective. During the regular season, they ranked 24th in rebounding percentage at 49.2%. Hart has pulled down double-digit rebounds in every game against the Pacers this year, including Game 1. He is a near lock for a double-double right now, which is great value.

NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks

Leading the middle range is Pacers’ center Myles Turner. He had a slow start to Game 1, but finished strong with 23 points on 8-for-16 shooting from the floor. Turner can stretch the floor, which is perfect for the Pacers’ run-and-gun offense. He buried two 3-pointers in Game 1 on six 3-point attempts. At the utility position, Turner has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus in this game. He is a great mid-range value.

After Turner in the pricing tier is aforementioned OG Anunoby. Mostly known for his defense, Anunoby was productive in Game 1, recording 34.75 DraftKings points. He nearly had a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds despite shooting an uncharacteristic 5-for-14 from the field. He is another Knicks player who is going to play heavy minutes, which puts Anunoby in play in all formats tonight.

Knicks’ starting shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo continues to be dialed in from long distance. The sharpshooter poured in five made 3-pointers in Game 1 and had a clutch shot to put the Knicks up by three points with 40 seconds to go. Most of DiVincenzo’s production comes from scoring the ball, but he has scored 23 and 25 points in his last two games, and this Pacers’ defense is exploitable on the perimeter.

Mitchell Robinson played 11 minutes in Game 1 before getting injured once again. He is already ruled out tonight and will be reevaluated in 6-to-8 weeks. That will open the door to more playing time for Isaiah Hartenstein who played a playoff-high 36 minutes in Game 1. Outside of Brunson, Hartenstein has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position and the highest at the captain spot. When looking to pay down at captain tonight, Hartenstein is the easy choice. This is a fantastic matchup for the big man.

Despite playing only 29 minutes and getting into foul trouble guarding Jalen Brunson in Game 1, Andrew Nembhard almost returned value. This was the first game in his last six that Nembhard did not have a positive Plus/Minus. If he can stay out of foul trouble tonight, expect a bounce-back performance from the Pacers’ starting shooting guard. His salary has jumped back down to where he is a strong value play.

From one player in foul trouble to another. Aaron Nesmith has seen his playing time fluctuate in the playoffs due to foul trouble, but he is very productive when he is on the floor. The Pacers need his scoring ability with Haliburton banged up. Nesmith has provided double-digit points in all but two of his playoff games this postseason. He is one of the best Pacers’ value plays due to his $5,000 price tag tonight.

 

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

  • TJ McConnell ($4,600): Pacers’ backup point guard TJ McConnell was incredible in Game 1 and the closeout Game 6 against the Bucks. In those back-to-back games, McConnell averaged 19.5 points, 6.0 assists, 3.5 steals, and 36.9 DraftKings points per game while shooting an absurd 64% from the field. McConnell is the best punt play in this matchup at his relatively cheap $4,600 salary.
  • Obi Toppin ($4,400): Similar to TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin has been a spark plug off the bench for the Pacers. Highlighted by his between-the-legs dunk in Game 1, Toppin finished that game with 12 points, six rebounds, and three assists. Dating back to Game 3 against the Bucks, Toppin is averaging 14.6 points per game and shooting 57.1% from the field. He has scored double digits in every game.
  • Miles McBride ($3,000): Due to the Knicks’ starters playing heavy minutes, they do not have anyone else worth getting exposure to besides shooting guard Miles McBride. Even McBride can be a difficult roster after playing 11 minutes in Game 1. However, we have seen McBride get extended minutes if his perimeter shot is falling. That could be the case again tonight if McBride gets hot from distance.
  • Isaiah Jackson ($2,600): Pacers’ backup center Isaiah Jackson played a playoff-high 13 minutes in Game 1 and finished with 21.75 DraftKings points. He stuffed the stat sheet with eight points, five rebounds, and three blocks. Projected for around 12 minutes tonight, Jackson is a solid salary saver.
  • Ben Sheppard ($2,400): The rookie from Belmont has been getting valuable playing time for the Pacers in the playoffs. Ben Sheppard has played at least 14 minutes in each of his last six games and is averaging 6.7 points and 12.75 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 59.1% from the field and 55.6% from behind the arc. Over 80% of his field goal attempts have come from long distance.
  • Precious Achiuwa ($2,200): With the absence of Mitchell Robinson, there is a chance that the Knicks turn to backup big man Precious Achiuwa tonight, especially if Hartenstein gets into foul trouble. Our Player Model has Achiuwa projected to play around 12 minutes, which does make him in play for tonight’s game. At a $2,200 price tag, Achiuwa does not have to do much to provide value.

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Wednesday features Game 2 of the New York Knicks and Indiana Pacers series. The Knicks held on to win Game 1 121-117, which was very high scoring for this Knicks team. The Pacers bring the pace to every game, which is why this total is a respectable 218.5 points. Expect another up-tempo atmosphere tonight.

Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs Tools and metrics.

Don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups. Also, make sure to check this article if you’re looking for a refresher on the single-game format.

Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.

Become an All-Access Member Today

Lineup builder and optimizer

Real-time DFS models & projections

Data-driven analysis & tutorials
Become a PRO Member
 

NBA DFS Stud Picks

Any time you are in the conversation with Michael Jordan, you are doing something right. That is the case with Knicks’ point guard Jalen Brunson, who is the first player since Jordan to score 40+ points in four-straight playoff games. He also scored 39 points five games ago. Brunson is playing at an elite level and is the stud to target. He is averaging 42 points and 63.3 DraftKings points per game in his last five games.

Brunson has by far the highest projected ceiling in our Player model tonight. Not only is he projected to play over 43 minutes, but Brunson also has a 37.75% usage rate projection. Being the most aggressive offensive player on the floor, Brunson is the clear-cut best captain and flex option available. Despite being $18,000 in the captain slot, he has the highest projected ownership. Brunson is the best play on the slate.

Tyrese Haliburton continues to deal with back spasms, and it showed in Game 1. He had his worst playoff game this postseason, recording six points, eight assists, and two rebounds. Haliburton did capture four steals, but his usage rate was nonexistent at 9.2% despite playing 36 minutes. He is the only player listed as questionable, so make sure to monitor his status even though he has been playing through his ailment.

The good thing about Haliburton is it can’t get much worse than Game 1. Expect a bounce-back game from him tonight. He did lead the regular season in assists with 10.9 per game while also scoring over 20 points per game. We haven’t seen his true upside in a while, and this is a difficult matchup to showcase his skill set. Despite everything looking bleak Haliburton still has the second-highest projected ceiling tonight.

Priced just below Haliburton is his teammate Pascal Siakam at $10,200. Since being acquired by the Pacers in the middle of January, Siakam has led the team in both points and rebounds per game. He has continued that trend throughout the playoffs, averaging a near double-double with 21.9 points and 8.4 rebounds per game while shooting 54.1% from the field. Siakam is the best Pacers player to target.

Siakam has the toughest individual matchup against his former teammate in Toronto, OG Anunoby. However, he had a pretty solid Game 1, stuffing the stat sheet with 19 points, six rebounds, and five assists while shooting 8-for-16 from the field. With Haliburton not 100% healthy, the Pacers need a big game out of Siakam to get this series tied at one game apiece. He is impossible to ignore even with a rising salary.

The last stud that is worth getting exposure to is Knicks’ Swiss army knife Josh Hart. It is incredible watching this 6’4″ forward attack the ball on the glass. He ranks fourth among all players in the playoffs with 12.4 rebounds per game. Hart plays nearly every minute and has doubled his scoring output from the regular season. He is averaging 17.9 points per game in the playoffs and shooting 44.7% from deep.

To no surprise, Hart is projected to play the most minutes in this game. The Pacers are an exploitable matchup both from a scoring and rebounding perspective. During the regular season, they ranked 24th in rebounding percentage at 49.2%. Hart has pulled down double-digit rebounds in every game against the Pacers this year, including Game 1. He is a near lock for a double-double right now, which is great value.

NBA DFS Mid-Range Picks

Leading the middle range is Pacers’ center Myles Turner. He had a slow start to Game 1, but finished strong with 23 points on 8-for-16 shooting from the floor. Turner can stretch the floor, which is perfect for the Pacers’ run-and-gun offense. He buried two 3-pointers in Game 1 on six 3-point attempts. At the utility position, Turner has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus in this game. He is a great mid-range value.

After Turner in the pricing tier is aforementioned OG Anunoby. Mostly known for his defense, Anunoby was productive in Game 1, recording 34.75 DraftKings points. He nearly had a double-double with 13 points and nine rebounds despite shooting an uncharacteristic 5-for-14 from the field. He is another Knicks player who is going to play heavy minutes, which puts Anunoby in play in all formats tonight.

Knicks’ starting shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo continues to be dialed in from long distance. The sharpshooter poured in five made 3-pointers in Game 1 and had a clutch shot to put the Knicks up by three points with 40 seconds to go. Most of DiVincenzo’s production comes from scoring the ball, but he has scored 23 and 25 points in his last two games, and this Pacers’ defense is exploitable on the perimeter.

Mitchell Robinson played 11 minutes in Game 1 before getting injured once again. He is already ruled out tonight and will be reevaluated in 6-to-8 weeks. That will open the door to more playing time for Isaiah Hartenstein who played a playoff-high 36 minutes in Game 1. Outside of Brunson, Hartenstein has the highest projected Plus/Minus at the utility position and the highest at the captain spot. When looking to pay down at captain tonight, Hartenstein is the easy choice. This is a fantastic matchup for the big man.

Despite playing only 29 minutes and getting into foul trouble guarding Jalen Brunson in Game 1, Andrew Nembhard almost returned value. This was the first game in his last six that Nembhard did not have a positive Plus/Minus. If he can stay out of foul trouble tonight, expect a bounce-back performance from the Pacers’ starting shooting guard. His salary has jumped back down to where he is a strong value play.

From one player in foul trouble to another. Aaron Nesmith has seen his playing time fluctuate in the playoffs due to foul trouble, but he is very productive when he is on the floor. The Pacers need his scoring ability with Haliburton banged up. Nesmith has provided double-digit points in all but two of his playoff games this postseason. He is one of the best Pacers’ value plays due to his $5,000 price tag tonight.

 

NBA DFS Value & Punt Picks

  • TJ McConnell ($4,600): Pacers’ backup point guard TJ McConnell was incredible in Game 1 and the closeout Game 6 against the Bucks. In those back-to-back games, McConnell averaged 19.5 points, 6.0 assists, 3.5 steals, and 36.9 DraftKings points per game while shooting an absurd 64% from the field. McConnell is the best punt play in this matchup at his relatively cheap $4,600 salary.
  • Obi Toppin ($4,400): Similar to TJ McConnell, Obi Toppin has been a spark plug off the bench for the Pacers. Highlighted by his between-the-legs dunk in Game 1, Toppin finished that game with 12 points, six rebounds, and three assists. Dating back to Game 3 against the Bucks, Toppin is averaging 14.6 points per game and shooting 57.1% from the field. He has scored double digits in every game.
  • Miles McBride ($3,000): Due to the Knicks’ starters playing heavy minutes, they do not have anyone else worth getting exposure to besides shooting guard Miles McBride. Even McBride can be a difficult roster after playing 11 minutes in Game 1. However, we have seen McBride get extended minutes if his perimeter shot is falling. That could be the case again tonight if McBride gets hot from distance.
  • Isaiah Jackson ($2,600): Pacers’ backup center Isaiah Jackson played a playoff-high 13 minutes in Game 1 and finished with 21.75 DraftKings points. He stuffed the stat sheet with eight points, five rebounds, and three blocks. Projected for around 12 minutes tonight, Jackson is a solid salary saver.
  • Ben Sheppard ($2,400): The rookie from Belmont has been getting valuable playing time for the Pacers in the playoffs. Ben Sheppard has played at least 14 minutes in each of his last six games and is averaging 6.7 points and 12.75 DraftKings points per game, while shooting 59.1% from the field and 55.6% from behind the arc. Over 80% of his field goal attempts have come from long distance.
  • Precious Achiuwa ($2,200): With the absence of Mitchell Robinson, there is a chance that the Knicks turn to backup big man Precious Achiuwa tonight, especially if Hartenstein gets into foul trouble. Our Player Model has Achiuwa projected to play around 12 minutes, which does make him in play for tonight’s game. At a $2,200 price tag, Achiuwa does not have to do much to provide value.

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About the Author

Tyler Schmidt writes NBA, NFL, and MLB content for FantasyLabs and Action Network. He has a degree in Management Information Systems and minor in Computer Science. Tyler has been playing DFS for over a decade and writing content as a freelancer for the past five years. He is a former collegiate basketball player who still holds the Minnesota State High School record for consecutive free throws with 72 that he set in 2009. Schmidt's strong knowledge of the game allows him to take an analytical approach to betting and fantasy sports.