The second round of the NBA playoffs is already off to a good start with two exciting series underway. The other two series start as part of Tuesday night’s doubleheader. The Celtics take on the Cavaliers in the first game of the night, which tips off the two-game slate at 7:00 p.m. ET, and then the focus shifts to the Western Conference where the top-seeded Thunder host the Mavs.
On the injury front, the Celtics will be without Kristaps Porzingis (calf), and the Cavs may be without Jarrett Allen (rib, questionable). In the West, Luka Doncic (knee) is probable, and Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle) is ready to return from his injury. Be sure to refresh the models as the day goes on for the latest updates to the projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Even at less than 100% in the first round, Luka Doncic was too much for the Leonard-less Clippers, but now the Mavs will need even more production from Doncic, as they face a much tougher opponent in the second round. Doncic has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of all players on the slate, but he isn’t a great value on a per-dollar basis due to his hefty $12,000 salary.
In the first round, Doncic produced 1.39 DraftKings points per minute and played 42.5 minutes per game. He led the Mavs with a high 35.6% usage rate, which was on par with his regular-season usage rate when he produced 1.76 DraftKings points per minute.
Luka had at least 10 assists in the final three games of the series against the Clippers and scored at least 28 points in each of those games. He can do even better when at 100%, and with some extra time off, he should be fired up to start this series against the Thunder. Dallas will go only as far as Luka will carry them, so his usage and ceiling should stay extremely high. If you’re looking for raw upside, no one on this slate brings a higher ceiling than Doncic.
Value
With Doncic so expensive, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a low-cost alternative at $9,100. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate and the second-highest median and ceiling projection on the slate behind only Luka. Because his salary leaves so much more room at other spots, he’s much easier to build around while still bringing a high ceiling and high usage.
In the Thunder’s first-round sweep of the Pelicans, SGA averaged 1.23 DraftKings points per minute in 37.8 minutes per game. He had a double-double in the closeout win in Game 4 to produce 46 DraftKings points and had at least 45 DraftKings points in each game except Game 1. He scored at least 24 points in each game and played at least 35 minutes.
Gilgeous-Alexander averaged over 40 DraftKings points in his four games against the Mavs in the regular season as well. The Thunder haven’t played for over a week, so there could be some rust early in this game. The rest should also help SGA through the lingering injuries that were nagging him towards the end of the year, so don’t be afraid to roll with him at point guard as a Luka alternative on Tuesday.
Fast Break
Jrue Holiday has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of point guards with salaries under $6,000. The Celtics do a good job spreading the production around, but Holiday played the second-most minutes in the first round against Miami, logging 35.4 minutes per game and producing 0.71 DraftKings points per minute. He’ll likely be chasing around Donovan Mitchell on the defensive end for his primary task in this series, but he brings solid fantasy production at this reasonable salary.
For the Thunder, Josh Giddey is also a strong mid-range play. He only had two points in Game 1 against the Pelicans but produced over 12 points in the other three games of the series and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those three contests. He had over 20 points and over 40 DraftKings points Game 3 and brings a high ceiling depending on his involvement.
Coming off the Boston bench, Payton Pritchard has a high ceiling at just $4,200, but his workload fluctuates from game to game. He showed his potential in an expanded role during the closing month of the regular season as the Celtics rested various players, but he fell short of salary-based expectations against the Heat since he was in a smaller role off the bench. He’s high-risk but does bring a good ceiling if you have to go cheap.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Donovan Mitchell carried the Cavs past the Magic in Round 1, and now he’ll have to take on the top-seeded Celtics in Boston. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Mitchell finished Round 1 with back-to-back legacy games. He had over 60 DraftKings points in each game while taking an astounding total of 63 shots. He had 50 points in the Game 6 road loss and followed that up with 39 points, nine rebounds, and five assists in Game 7.
In his two games against the Celtics this regular season, Mitchell averaged 47.8 DraftKings points, so even though it’s a tough defensive matchup, he can still deliver top production. His usage projection of 32.8% is the second-highest on the slate behind only Luka’s. His projections aren’t quite as high as SGA’s, but he still brings a great ceiling with so much work expected to come his way.
Value
A pair of Celtics bring the top two Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard–Derrick White and Jaylen Brown. White has the top mark at the position and is more affordable at just under $7,000. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players on the slate behind only SGA, and he can be a key part of your lineup with his salary under $7,000.
White averaged 1.06 DraftKings points per minute in the Celtics’ series against the Heat. He finished Game 4 and Game 5 of that series with 57 and 38.25 DraftKings points respectively. He was consistent with at least 24.8 DraftKings points in every contest and hit his ceiling with a monster 38-point Game 4.
During the regular season, White averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute, but that number jumped to 1.07 DraftKings points per minute with Kristaps Porzingis off the floor, and his usage jumped over three percentage points to 21.9%. He has a usage projection of 20.5% in this contest, but given how productive he has been, he could step into an even more active role against Cleveland while continuing to do all the little things he contributed that helped make Boston a juggernaut during the regular season.
Fast Break
Brown is a solid play as well since he should also get more work with Porzingis out. He produced 1.21 DraftKings points per minute with Porzingis off the floor this season and 1.10 DraftKings points per minute in the first round of the playoffs. He led the Celtics with a 40.8% usage rate against Miami while Porzingis was off the floor and a 32.8% usage rate overall in the series.
Kyrie Irving is very expensive for a secondary option on his team. He has an unattractive Projected Plus/Minus as a result, but his median and ceiling projections are slightly better than Brown’s and just behind Mitchell’s. He scored 20+ points in five the six games against the Clippers including two 30-point performances. Kyrie definitely brings good ceiling potential, but you will have to pay up for it.
Of all shooting guard options under $5,000, Sam Hauser has the highest Projected Plus/Minus. Hauser produced 0.83 DraftKings points per minute in the first round while playing 17 minutes per game. If Boston goes smaller without Porzingis, his role could expand against Cleveland, and he brings streaky shooting upside.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jalen Williams looked excellent in his playoff debut against the Pelicans in the first round, and he has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at small forward on this slate. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well. He also brings unique utility with dual eligibility at point guard and small forward, meaning he can fill either guard or forward depending on how the rest of your roster shakes out.
Williams exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the four games of his first-round series, producing 1.12 DraftKings points per minute on a 26.4% usage rate that was second on the team. He scored at least 19 points in each game and had strong non-scoring contributions as well.
Getting Williams at just over $7,000 makes him a good value with a high ceiling, and his roster flexibility will surely make him a popular fit.
Value
Williams’ teammate Luguentz Dort has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forward options with salaries under $6,000. He comes at a solid $4,700 salary and should be able to deliver good value since he plays so many minutes as a defensive specialist next to Williams and SGA.
Dort averaged 35.3 minutes per game in Round 1, producing 0.63 DraftKings points per minute. He did score double-digit points and exceed salary-based expectations in the final three games of the series after a slow start in Game 1. Dort doesn’t usually take many shots but contributes across the stat sheet with good rebounding and steals. Like in real life, he can be a good part of the supporting cast for your stars this Tuesday.
Fast Break
Max Strus is another solid role player with a mid-range salary and plenty of minutes. He can catch fire and pour in a ton of points, but normally he’s a part of Spida’s supporting cast. In each of the last three games of the series against Orlando, Strus reached double-digit points and knocked down multiple three-pointers.
For the Mavericks, Derrick Jones Jr. has been in a similar role and had double-digit points in four of his last five games against the Clippers. His playing time could be a little crowded by the return of Tim Hardaway Jr., but THJ has been struggling with his shot lately. Normally, Hardaway brings streaky scoring potential, but he was scuffling in a reduced role even before his ankle injury.
Sam Hauser (discussed above) and Aaron Wiggins have the top Projected Plus/Minus of the options with salaries under $4,000, and Hauser has the most upside of the bunch due to Porzingis’ absence.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of all power forwards on this slate and the third-highest ceiling and median projections on the whole slate behind just the two superstar point guards. Tatum has the second-highest salary of all players on the slate but also has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward behind only his teammate Al Horford.
Tatum had a strong series against the Heat, averaging 1.23 DraftKings points per minute with a 26.8% usage rate in a team-high 38 minutes per game. He had a triple-double in Game 1 and three double-doubles to finish the series off.
During the regular season, he averaged over 50 DraftKings points in his three meetings with the Cavs, so this should be a matchup in which he can thrive. Another factor in his fantasy favor is the absence of Porzingis. With Porzingis off the floor in the regular season, Tatum was forced to play bigger. His usage jumped over three percentage points and he produced 1.42 DraftKings points per minute.
Value
Tatum’s teammate Al Horford has the top Projected Plus/Minus at power forward since he will also be helping to cover for the absence of Porzinigs. He played over 22 minutes in each of the first-round games against Miami but only scored double-digit points once. He did produce 0.84 DraftKings points per minute, which would be enough to make him a solid play if he approaches his projection of 34.6 minutes on Tuesday.
Horford will have to step up against he big front line of the Cavs, especially if Jarrett Allen is able to return. His play will be a key to the series, and the veteran has proven to be up to the task when called upon this season. On a slate with limited frontcourt options, Horford is a very strong value play under $6,000.
Fast Break
P.J. Washington has been a good pickup for the Mavs at the trade deadline and scored double-digit points in five of the six games in the first round. He produced a solid 0.70 DraftKings points per minute in 35.3 minutes per game, and he’s a solid alternative to Horford, although his ceiling isn’t quite as high.
Josh Green and Isaac Okoro both get minutes as options under $4,000, but neither has been very productive in their time on the court. Okoro did have eight points in two of the last three games of the Cavs’ series and could help Cleveland go a little smaller against the Celtics if they have to. Even at his best, though, he’s a low-usage defensive specialist.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Even with Jarrett Allen in our projections, rookie Chet Holmgren has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at center. He also has highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Holmgren had an up-and-down round against the Pelicans. He started with a monster 15-point double-double in Game 1 and followed that up with 26 points in Game 2. He was much quieter in Game 3 and Game 4, though, and he fell short of salary-based expectations.
During the regular season, Holmgren produced 1.25 DraftKings points per minute before producing 1.11 DraftKings points per minute in his four postseason games against the Pelicans. He is loaded with potential and upside in a matchup he should dominate down low against Dallas. The Mavs’ frontcourt changed as the season went on, but when Holmgren faced them, he produced 31.3 DraftKings points in just 23.6 minutes per game.
Value
Dallas has been platooning Dereck Lively with Daniel Gafford since acquiring Gafford at the trade deadline along with Washington. Lively has been the better fantasy play in the postseason and comes at a very attractive salary of just $4,300.
Lively averaged 10.8 points per game over the final four games against the Clippers, scoring in the double digits three times during that stretch. He played over 24 minutes and exceeded salary-based expectations in the final two games of the series.
While the timeshare will be determined by the matchup, Lively seems to have the slight edge in workload, which should be enough to make him a top value play on this slate.
Fast Break
Evan Mobley delivered 11 points and a series-best 16 rebounds in Game 7 against Orlando. He had double-digit points in six of the seven games as well. Even without Allen, he didn’t exactly go off for a huge series, though, and Allen could be back to eat into his usage. His projections are a little low for his salary on this slate, but if Allen is ruled out again, he could become a much more attractive play. Be sure to refresh the models once we get word on Allen’s status.
Without Porzingis, Luke Kornet can be a punt play at center at just $4,000, but the Mavericks’ values discussed above are better options at similar salaries. If Allen is out, Tristan Thompson could get minutes again, but he hasn’t been very productive in the postseason.
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