UFC 301 goes down live from Rio de Janeiro on Saturday, featuring a card where every fight is a Brazilian against a non-Brazilian. The event is headlined by Brazilian flyweight champion Alexandre Pantoja in his second title defense, this time against Steve Erceg.
The 14-fight card locks at 6:00 p.m. Eastern on Saturday.
We have built out a full player-projection model using the FantasyLabs Tools and Player Models to help put together some winning DFS lineups in UFC. You can use our optimizer to build optimal lineups using these projections.
The model, created by our own Sean Koerner, is based on 10,000 simulations of all the fights. He then pulled the DraftKings score from each bout to create floor, median, and ceiling projections for every fighter. Here is how he defined each projection:
- Floor: Fighter has an 80% chance of going over this score, 20% chance of going under
- Median: Fighter has a 50% chance of going over this score, 50% chance of going under
- Ceiling: Fighter has a 20% chance of going over this score, 80% chance of going under
These should give us a better sense of which fighters we should target based on the game type – maximizing ceiling in GPPs, for example. We’ve also added ownership projections by yours truly to help find leverage spots for GPPs.
You can check out the projections for every fighter on Saturday’s card in our UFC Models.
Main Event
Alexandre Pantoja ($8,800) vs. Steve Erceg ($7,400)
The UFC needed a Brazilian champion to headline their return to Rio. With just two active in the promotion and one headlining UFC 300, that left Alexandre Pantoja as the default choice.
I bring this up by way of explanation for how Steve Erceg — who joined the company last June and has yet to face a top-ten fighter — ended up in a title fight. Pantoja has multiple wins over the top-two contenders in the UFC rankings, while number three is injured. The logical opponent (given those constraints) was probably Muhammad Mokaev, but the undefeated Russian turned down the opportunity since he fought less than two months ago.
That fight happened on the same card as Erceg’s last win. That’s a quick turnaround for “Astroboy” and a big reason for my confidence in Pantoja. The contender is nearly six years younger and the better pure boxer than the champ, but he didn’t get much time to properly game plan for the relentless grappling from Pantoja.
This is also the first five-round fight for Erceg, another knock against him. Pantoja’s takedown-heavy style is ideal for DFS. He scored 143 DraftKings points in both of his five-round title fights and could put up similar numbers this weekend.
I’ll likely still stack this one in cash — there’s not really other fighters in Erceg’s price range that I feel great about. For GPPs, I’ll be extremely heavy on Pantoja, who leads our median projections at a reasonable price tag.
The Easy Chalk
Michel Pereira ($9,600)
The top-four fighters in salary on the card all project very well. All four are favored at -500 or heavier, with solid odds to end their fight inside the distance.
Of the group, I feel the best about Pereira. He has by far the least-threatening opponent of the group in Ihor Potieria ($6,600) who replaced Makhmud Muradov on the UFC 301 card. Potieria is 2-3 in the UFC (with one of those wins coming against a retiring Shogun Rua) and is a big step down in competition for the Brazilian favorite.
Pereira has the best odds to win in the first round of any fighter on the slate, and I like his chances better than the market. He brings a rare combination of stopping power and takedown upside, especially against the pure striker in Potieria.
While his price tag makes it difficult to fit him in lineups, I’ll be trying to find the extra dollars to pay up for the card’s most expensive fighter in all contest types.
The Upside Play
Myktybek Orolbay ($9,000)
While he’s not as massive of a favorite as we have elsewhere on the card, Orolbay just might be the best fighter for DFS. He’s 1-0 in the UFC, picking up an absurd seven takedowns despite fighting up a weight class on short notice against Uros Medic in his debut.
Now down at 155, he should enjoy a massive size and strength edge over Elves Brener ($7,200). Brener is a competent grappler, but with a jiu-jitsu based style that should allow for plenty of takedowns from Orolbay.
He may not be able to pick up the seven takedowns he landed in his debut, but that’s only because Brener is unlikely to find his way back to his feet that many times. Either outcome is a win/win for DFS though — either Orolbay stacks up the takedowns, or he puts up a big score with control time and a potential finish.
Mauricio Ruffy ($8,400)
The other high-upside fighter on this card is Ruffy. A massive power puncher, all nine of his professional wins have come via knockout.
That makes the matchup with Jamie Mullarkey ($7,800) an excellent one for the Brazilian debutante. Mullarkey is a 14-fight UFC veteran with a 7-7 promotional record, but his chin seems to have left him in recent fights. He’s been knocked out badly twice in the last calendar year and in each of his last three losses.
The UFC matchmakers obviously put this one together to showcase the Brazilian fighter on home soil, pairing him with an ideal opponent for his style. He’s even money to win this one by knockout, which would almost certainly propel him to the optimal lineup based on his salary.
The Value Play
Ernesta Kareckaite ($7,300)
As I referenced above, it’s a hard slate to find DFS value. There are only three fights favored to go the distance, and one of those is priced at $7,900/$8,300, so you aren’t saving a ton of salary even on the underdog.
This brings me to the flyweight matchup between Kareckaite and Dione Barbosa ($8,900). It’s -175 to go the full 15 minutes, which provides a reasonable floor for the underdog Kareckaite.
Barbosa is a pure grappler, whose game plan is submission or bust. She’ll need to find a way to close the distance on Kareckaite to get the fight to the ground due to Kareckaite’s superior striking and five-inch reach edge.
That’s a tougher task in the full-sized UFC PPV cage, as Kareckaite will have more room to work than in her Contender Series bout. Still, she landed a whopping 184 significant strikes, which would’ve been good for over 100 DraftKings points in her split-decision win.
Kareckaite is a bit scary here, as a quick takedown and submission from Barbosa is well within the range of outcomes. However, if she can keep it standing for a round or two, her high-volume striking should pay off for DFS.
Sean Zerillo and I both have some interest in Kareckaite, as we talked about on our UFC 301 Betting Preview Podcast:
The Contrarian Choice
Jose Aldo ($7,900)
The legendary Jose Aldo is making his return from “retirement” in the UFC 301 co-main event. Aldo walked away from the promotion in August of 2022 but has had three professional boxing matches before returning to the Octagon.
He’s taking on Jonathan Martinez ($8,300), a fellow striker who comes in on a six-fight win streak. The fight is -190 to see the judges, the longest odds on the slate.
Conventional DFS wisdom suggests this isn’t a great fight to target. We’re typically looking for either takedowns or finishes, and neither is likely (according to the betting markets) in this fight. However, at his prime, Aldo was one of the most explosive strikers in the UFC.
If he can look like the Aldo of old, he should make short work of Martinez. That’s not exceptionally likely for the 37 year old, but it’s still a possibility. Aldo had won three of four before his hiatus from MMA and hadn’t shown signs of aging.
Plus — and I’ve buried the lede here — the UFC has since parted ways with their anti-doping agency USADA. Aldo has had some run-ins with USADA in the past, and Aldo’s career decline lines up almost precisely with the more stringent drug testing program. That’s probably just a coincidence, but what if it isn’t?
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The Swing Fight
Caio Borralho ($9,500) vs. Paul Craig ($6,700)
This isn’t the typical swing fight — which is to say a closely-lined matchup that’s expected to end early. However, despite one fighter (Craig) being a massive underdog, he poses enough of a threat to make this one interesting.
The Brazilian Borralho is clearly the A-side here. He’s undefeated in the UFC, with five straight impressive victories. Craig is 9-7-1 in his promotional tenure, including 1-1 since dropping down to middleweight.
Borralho is a well-rounded fighter with a Judo background from his childhood, a BJJ black belt, and solid striking skills. Craig is the complete opposite — a one-trick pony with world-class submissions.
Borralho should control this one easily on the feet, and likely have no problem defending takedowns either. Still, Craig isn’t afraid to pull guard, daring his opponents to take top position against him.
If Borralho’s zeal for a finish entices him to join Craig in a grappling match, anything could happen. That’s why I want to be over the field on Craig here, as a win would obviously more than pay off his bare bones price tag.
I’ll be more cautious with my Borralho exposure, though I still want a chunk of him. He could pick up an impressive win and still fail to top the score of Pereira or the other fighters in their price range. Still, I bet Borralho to win by finish, so I don’t want to ignore him in DFS.
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