On Thursday, the NBA has two games on the slate for DFS fantasy basketball. Both games are Game 6 of series in the Eastern Conference with the Pacers and Knicks looking to advance, and the Bucks and 76ers trying to force a Game 7. It should be another fun night of action from the hardwood, and there are some very interesting DFS fantasy basketball angles to consider.
As they were before Game 5, both Giannis Antetkounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (Achilles) are doubtful for the Bucks. On the other side of that matchup, Tyrese Haliburton (back) is questionable but has been able to play through the issue. Joel Embiid (knee, injury recovery) is also questionable as usual, and Mitchell Robinson (ankle) is questionable on the other side of that matchup. As we get updates leading up to tip off, be sure to always refresh our models for the latest projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Jalen Brunson continues to bring a high ceiling and a high floor every game due to his heavy workload in the Knicks offense. He has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection of all point guards on this slate along with the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Brunson has been outstanding in this series, averaging 1.26 DraftKings points per minute, and he has also been very busy in this series, averaging 43.8 minutes per game with a 37.9% usage rate. He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games, scoring 39, 47, and 40 points and adding good non-scoring numbers to finish with over 58 DraftKings points in each of those three games.
With a chance to advance with a win, Brunson has a 38.0% usage projection and will play all the minutes he can handle. The superstar is a proven big-game performer and should step up with another big performance.
Value
The Pacers have relied on Andrew Nembhard in their starting lineup for most of the season, and he has started each of the five games in this series, playing 34.2 minutes per game with a 15.2% usage rate. He has scored at least 12 points and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four contests. He remains a good value with his salary under $5,000.
On Thursday, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards. Of all players at all positions with salaries under $5,000, he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus. He took a series-high 10 shots in Game 5, and he should continue to be involved enough to be a great value on Thursday.
Nembhard is a good cheap way to get exposure to the Pacers’ production. Indiana has the highest implied team total on the slate.
Fast Break
Tyrese Maxey has continued his year-long emergence as a superstar this postseason and had a finish to Game 5 that will haunt Knicks fans for a while. In the series, he has produced 1.18 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.9% usage rate and 32.7% assist rate. He has scored more than 22 points in each game in the series and finished with two ceiling games of over 63 DraftKings points. He finished with 67.75 DraftKings points on Tuesday, pouring in 46 points to go with nine assists and five rebounds to carry the Sixers to an overtime win. He is a strong alternative to Brunson, although a little riskier.
Tyrese Haliburton has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards on Thursday behind just Brunson. He hasn’t put up huge numbers in the playoffs but remains the focus of the up-tempo Pacers attack.
The Knicks rotation has been shortened even more after the injury to Bojan Bogdanovic, and Miles McBride played a series-high 33 minutes on Tuesday as a result. He has scored double-digit points in three of the five games in this series and exceeded salary-based expectations in Game 5 with 14 points, four assists, and four rebounds for 29.5 DraftKings points.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With these four teams in the player pool, there aren’t really any pay-up studs at shooting guard. The highest median and ceiling projections at the position belong to Patrick Beverley, who has been doing his best to fill in for the gigantic absence of Damian Lillard.
Beverley exceeded salary-based expectations in the Bucks’ Game 5 victory with 13 points and 12 assists for 43 DraftKings points in 36 minutes. On the series, he has averaged only 0.75 DraftKings points per minute, but he should continue to get enough minutes to be one of the top plays at shooting guard since Milwaukee will need him to step up once again in Game 6.
Value
On Thursday’s slate, Aaron Nesmith edges out his teammate Andrew Nembhard (discussed above) for the top Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard. Nesmith had a disappointing Game 5 with just seven points but had posted at least 11 points and at least 23 DraftKings points in each of the previous three contests against the Bucks.
Nesmith has played 36.0 minutes per game in the series, producing 0.7 DraftKings points per minute with his 14.8% usage rate. He can get hot from long range and pour in points, but even when he doesn’t, he has a good floor from his mid-range salary since he’s getting such a big workload in an up-tempo, high-scoring offense.
Fast Break
Although his projections are just a little lower than the shooting guard options discussed above, Kelly Oubre Jr. has a high ceiling if the Sixers turn to him for more offense. He has at least 14 points in each of the last three games in the series and brings good scoring upside with his 16.7% usage projection that is higher than Nesmith’s, Nembhard’s, and Beverley’s.
Malik Beasley stepped up for the Bucks in Game 5 with 18 points and three steals for 31 DraftKings points. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last two games and is one of the Bucks’ best backcourt scoring options without Dame.
Pacers rookie Ben Sheppard has a salary barely over the minimum but has played 17.4 minutes per game off the bench in this series. He exceeded salary-based expectations in two of his last four games and is a bargain play to consider if you decide to punt shooting guard to spend up in other spots.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
For the shorthanded Bucks, Khris Middleton has had to step up and be the man in this series. Middleton has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at small forward on the slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
He exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three games by posting three straight double-doubles with five assists in each game. In the five games in this series, he has averaged 1.25 DraftKings points per minute and led the team with a 30.2% usage rate.
Middleton and the Bucks forced this Game 6 against the odds with a win at home on Tuesday, and he’ll look to lead them into Indiana on Thursday and force a Game 7 to give Dame and Giannis another chance to return.
Value
Although he has had a pretty quiet series overall, Tobias Harris has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on Thursday’s slate and the highest of the options under $6,000.
Harris has done good work on the glass, with at least eight boards in four of the five games against the Knicks and has scored double-digit points in three of the last four games. He exceeded salary-based expectations on Tuesday with a series-high 19 points to go with eight rebounds on his way to 34 DraftKings points. He has averaged only 0.64 DraftKings points per minute with a 13.6% usage rate in the five games of the series but still is a solid value at small forward since he has played 37.6 minutes per game.
Fast Break
Josh Hart has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position behind only Middleton, but his salary is almost $7,500. He bounced back from just four points in Game 4 with 18 points in Game 5, but his non-scoring numbers went down a little bit. He went off for 54.75 DraftKings points earlier in the series, so he has a very high ceiling and will continue to get a huge workload from coach Tom Thibodeau, who continues to live up to his reputation for riding his starters hard.
Andre Jackson Jr. had a big game with 32 DraftKings points in 25 minutes in Game 4 but played very limited minutes in Game 5. Part of the expanded Game 4 role was due to the ejection of Bobby Portis, but Jackson showed enough to be worth a look as a bargain option. He’s high risk with his uncertain role but has shown more upside than the Bucks’ other wings.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
The Pacers got two monster games from Pascal Siakam to start the playoffs, but the star has been pretty silent over their last three contests. He still has the highest median and floor projections at power forward, but he isn’t the lock he looked to be after Game 1 and Game 2.
Siakam has produced 1.17 DraftKings points per minute in this series while logging 38.2 minutes per game. He played reduced time in Tuesday’s blowout loss to finish with just 20 DraftKings points after posting over 60 DraftKings points in each of the two games in Milwaukee to start the series.
He’s still the key to the Pacers’ top offense, so he has a high ceiling as they look to win and advance on Thursday. He has dominated at times without Giannis in this series, and the Pacers need an extra helping of Spicy P to get them to the next round on Thursday.
Value
On the other side of that Bucks-Pacers matchup, Bobby Portis has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and the second-highest on the whole slate. He has the highest ceiling projection of all power forwards as well.
After getting ejected in Game 4, he bounced back with 46.5 DraftKings points in Game 5. When he has been able to stay on the floor, he has produced a solid 1.08 DraftKings points per minute. He has double-doubles in all the games in this series except for his ejection and has outproduced salary-based expectations in three of his last four. He and Middleton have carried the team without Giannis and Dame, and both have excellent fantasy ceilings as they look to do the same again on Thursday.
Fast Break
OG Anunoby has scored double-digit points in each of the five games in this series, producing 0.67 DraftKings points per minute and playing a big workload of 43.8 minutes per contest. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games, including a ceiling game with a double-double and 40.5 DraftKings points in Game 4. He’ll be on the floor pretty much the whole game for the Knicks as he showed by playing over 50 minutes in Game 5’s overtime loss.
As a value play, Obi Toppin has intriguing upside at just $4,000. He has scored 15, 13, and 12 points in his last three games and has at least six rebounds in three of his last four contests. He has exceeded salary-based expectations, with 20+ DraftKings points in three of his last four contests.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections of any player on Thursday’s slate, and he also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate despite his elevated salary. Embiid continues to be listed as questionable for every game with his lingering knee issues, but even a little hobbled, he has been extremely effective in this series.
While Game 5 was Maxey’s showcase, Embiid also had another big game and finished with a triple-double of 19 points, 16 rebounds, and 10 assists for 64.5 DraftKings points. He has produced 1.46 DraftKings points per minute in this series and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last four games after coming up just short in Game 1.
Unless his injury flares up, Embiid should be poised to carry the load again for the Sixers as they look to force a Game 7. Playing at home, he’ll be fired up and ready to roll. He has an extremely high floor and ceiling and is worth considering if you can find a way to squish his salary under your cap.
Value
Without having to face Giannis, Myles Turner has had a good series for the Pacers, producing 1.18 DraftKings points per minute. He was a beast in Game 3 and Game 4, scoring 29 points to go with nine rebounds in each contest. He struggled a bit in Game 5, though, finishing with just 15 points and 23.75 DraftKings points.
His Game 5 numbers were more a function of the game turning into a blowout than struggles on his part. Turner was still efficient, shooting 6-of-9 from the field but playing only 31 minutes.
On Thursday, Turner has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center behind only Embiid and Portis, and he makes a good pivot play with upside. He has always been a boom-or-bust option for fantasy, and his bust in Game 5 could be setting up a boom for Game 6 at home, where he typically has his best games.
Fast Break
Mitchell Robinson returned from a one-game absence and played 25 minutes in Game 5 against Embiid. He finished with 20.25 DraftKings points on two points, three steals and seven rebounds. He’s a better individual matchup for Embiid than Isaiah Hartenstein and will be a solid value play if he gets 20+ minutes again on Thursday.
Obi Toppin is also a good value play as discussed above, and Danilo Gallinari has gotten in the mix the last few games for the Bucks as they try to adjust their rotation. He played a series-high 21 minutes in Game 4 and had four points and six boards.
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