The NBA Playoffs continue tonight with a two-game slate. The Celtics host the Heat for Game 5 of this first-round series and have a chance to eliminate Miami, with Boston leading 3-1 in this best of seven. We then get Game 5 between the Clippers and Mavericks in Los Angeles, with this series tied and both clubs looking to take a 3-2 lead.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Luka Doncic ($11,800) – Doncic brings the highest ceiling on the slate in our NBA models by over 20 DraftKings points and is a player you must have some exposure to tonight. In Sunday’s Game 4, the Mavs nearly pulled off a 31-point comeback vs. the Clippers, and Doncic was stellar per usual, posting a triple-double of 62 DraftKings points. So far during this first-round series with Los Angeles, the superstar is logging a whopping 43.3 minutes per game and he has led Dallas with a 33.8% usage rate. Winning Game 5 tonight and taking a 3-2 lead in this series would be massive for the Mavs, and Doncic should barely leave the floor in this contest. The Slovenian has topped 60 DraftKings points in two of these four games with the Clippers and should exceed this number again this evening.
Value
Derrick White ($6,600) – With Kristaps Porzingis (calf) only available for 13 minutes in Monday’s Game 4 win in Miami, White was the primary beneficiary for the Celtics, delivering a career-high 38 points, en route to 57 DraftKings points across 40 minutes. Porzingis will miss tonight’s Game 5 in Boston, and while we can’t expect a repeat performance from White, the guard should be able to outproduce this price tag, as the Celtics look to close out the Heat. This season, White’s usage rises 3.0 percentage points with Porzingis off the floor and he is averaging 34.6 DraftKings PPG with Porzingis inactive (21 games), via the On/Off Tool.
Fast Break
James Harden ($8,300) – Harden is a tremendous target tonight with Kawhi Leonard (knee) sidelined. Harden is amassing 52.5 DraftKings PPG for the two contests Leonard has missed in this series vs. the Mavs, and he has arguably been the best player in this best of seven, with Harden boasting an incredible true shooting percentage of 73.1%. The guard leads the Clippers with 1.3 DraftKings PPM with Leonard off the floor this season and is vastly underpriced.
Delon Wright ($4,100) – While Wright brings a shaky floor, the guard has the potential to surpass five-times value tonight, with Jaime Jaquez Jr. (hip) joining Jimmy Butler (knee) and Terry Rozier (neck) on the Heat’s inactive list. With Butler and Rozier out, and Jaquez Jr. getting hurt early in the second half Monday, Wright closed the game with Miami’s starters and logged a series-high 29.2 minutes. The veteran only finished with 10.5 DraftKings points, but should improve with the high volume likely to continue tonight. With Butler, Rozier, and Jaquez Jr. off the court this season, Wright is supplying 0.8 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
Jaylen Brown ($7,700) – With FantasyLabs projecting Brown to be only the seventh most-owned shooting guard for this two-game slate at 28%, the All-Star is a great option for GPPs. Brown is generating 42.3 DraftKings PPG with Porzingis inactive this season (19 games) and 1.2 DraftKings PPM with the center off the floor, thanks to a 2.3 percentage point increase to his usage rate. The Celtics are favored by 14 points tonight, but Brown has fared well when Boston has been favored by double-digits this season, exceeding 40 DraftKings points at a 50% clip, via the Trends Tool.
Value
Terance Mann ($4,400) – Mann is a strong value play with Leonard on the shelf. In the two games the veteran has missed this series, Mann has logged 37 minutes per game – which is a huge 15 minutes per game increase from the playing time he has seen with Leonard active this series – and produced 23.5 DraftKings PPG. Mann provides 0.74 DraftKings PPM with Leonard off the court this season and should have no issues exceeding five-times value tonight.
Fast Break
Kyrie Irving ($8,800) – Irving shined with a 55 DraftKings point performance in Sunday’s Game 4, marking his second effort over 50 DraftKings points this series. Given his championship-winning experience, Irving should rise to the occasion of tonight’s Game 5 in Los Angeles and has a ceiling worth persuing in GPPs.
Patty Mills ($3,400) – While he lacks real upside, Mills should see solid minutes tonight, with Jaquez Jr. out and Duncan Robinson struggling. Mills posted 10.5 DraftKings points in 22 minutes Monday and should receive around 25 minutes tonight. While his fantasy score Monday was underwhelming, there is reason to expect some positive regression for the veteran. Before Game 4, Mills had topped 20 DraftKings points in the three previous games he had surpassed the 20-minute mark.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Paul George ($8,100) – With Leonard out Sunday, George was outstanding, finishing with 64 DraftKings in 42.5 minutes. With Leonard off the floor this season, George’s usage has increased a team-high 3.7 percentage points to 31.2%, which is also a team high for this situation. The 33-year-old contributes 1.3 DraftKings PPM with the expanded role and is extremely underpriced for his upside. In our NBA Models, George is rating as the No.2 value on the slate.
Value
Derrick Jones Jr. ($4,300) – After seeing limited minutes in Game 1, Jones Jr. has seen 30.9 minutes per game in the last three, resulting in 22.1 DraftKings PPG for the wing. Jones Jr. has ranked third for the Mavs in plus/minus this series and with Tim Hardaway Jr. (ankle) missing his third in a row, Jones Jr. should continue to see heavy volume in tonight’s Game 5. The veteran has exceeded 20 DraftKings points in two of the last three games he has logged at least 30 minutes, and he isn’t expected to be overly popular according to FantasyLabs’ projections.
Fast Break
Norman Powell ($4,700) – Powell isn’t a safe option but is worth taking a flier on in GPPs. The veteran has been extremely hit-or-miss this series, but he has seen 30.8 minutes per game with Leonard inactive this postseason. Powell has seen a 20% usage rate with Leonard off the court this season, and he has topped 20 DraftKings points in four of the last eight games he has played with Leonard sidelined.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum ($9,700) – Tatum’s ceiling ranks second only to Doncic in our NBA models, and he is a strong pay-up option with the Celtics looking to clinch this series in Boston tonight. Tatum’s usage rises a team-high 3.3 percentage points with Porzingis off the floor, resulting in 1.42 DraftKings PPM. Tatum already has a 58 DraftKings point triple-double in this series against the Heat and brings similar upside in this closeout situation for the Celtics.
Value
Caleb Martin ($5,400) – Opposite of Tatum, Martin should garner an immense role tonight, with Jaquez Jr. joining Butler and Rozier on the sidelines. After Jaquez Jr. got hurt Monday, Martin posted 32.75 DraftKings points across 37 minutes in the Game 4 loss. Jaquez Jr. has ranked second on the Heat in usage this postseason (24.3%), and with him missing, Martin will likely see a usage rate over 20% and log as many minutes as possible. Based on the high expected volume, the veteran must be considered at this affordable price tag.
Fast Break
PJ Washington ($5,900) – Washington has provided 26.5 DraftKings points in 36.9 minutes per game this series, with that latter number ranking third for the Mavs, only trailing Doncic and Irving. Washington’s playing time average would be even higher if he didn’t get ejected from Game 3, and he is a threat for over 30 DraftKings points considering his massive role.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Bam Adebayo ($8,300) – With Butler and Rozier inactive, and Jaquez Jr. only available for 22 minutes Monday, Adebayo went off for 54.25 DraftKings points in 41.3 minutes. On both offense and defense, the Heat have been terrible with the center off the floor this series, and Adebayo should see all the minutes he can handle in this win-or-go-home situation for Miami. Plus, as we saw Monday, Jaquez Jr.’s absence is very meaningful for Adebayo. With Butler, Rozier, and Jaquez Jr. off the floor this season, Adebayo’s usage and assist rates have increased 4.7 and 4.4 percentage points respectively.
Value
Al Hoford ($5,500) – Horford is the No.1 value on the slate in our NBA models and is a must-play for this two-game slate. With Porzingis sidelined, Horford will start at center for the Celtics, and in the 19 starts he made for Porzingis during the regular season, Horford responded with 29.9 DraftKings points in 30.2 minutes per game. Considering this is the playoffs and Boston has a chance to clinch this first-round series over Miami tonight, Horford should see even more work than he did as Porzingis’ replacement starter in the regular season. FantasyLabs is projecting the veteran for 37.5 minutes of action, and with this type of volume, Horford should surpass 30 DraftKings points. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Horford is amassing 1.0 DraftKings PPM, via the On/Off Tool.
Fast Break
Ivica Zubac ($6,300) – Zubac has a ton of appeal with Leonard unavailable and is a compelling mid-tier target for this short slate. Zubac is collecting 33.4 DraftKings PPG with Leonard inactive this season (13 games), including a 45.25 DraftKings point outburst in Game 1 of this series vs. the Mavs. All of the centers’ rates increase with Leonard off the court, and Zubac gets the advantage of playing on his home floor tonight, where the big man has been nearly 2.0 DraftKings PPG better than when on the road this season.
Luke Kornet ($4,100) – With FantasyLabs slating him for essentially no ownership tonight, Kornet is a true sleeper for this two-game slate that is worth taking a gamble on in GPPs. The veteran should back up Horford tonight with Porzingis sidelined, and in the 16 games that both Kornet and Horford were active without Porzingis during the regular season, Kornet produced 17 DraftKings in 17.9 minutes per game.
