The NBA has another nice three-game playoff slate to close out the month of April. All three of the games on tap for Tuesday are Games 5 from the Eastern Conference, as the Knicks and Pacers try to close out their series to move on while the Magic and Cavs enter Game 5 tied 2-2. It should be a great night of action from the hardwood, and there are some very interesting DFS fantasy basketball angles to consider.
The major injury news on this slate is that the Bucks listed both Giannis Antetkounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (Achilles) as doubtful. On the other side of that matchup, Tyrese Haliburton (back) is questionable but was able to play through the issue successfully in Game 4. Joel Embiid (knee, injury recovery) is also questionable once again, but there’s not much of a real chance he would miss this game with his team on the brink of elimination. For the Knicks, Mitchell Robinson (ankle) is questionable and Bojan Bogdanovic (foot) has been ruled out. As we get updates leading up to tip off, be sure to always refresh our models for the latest projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
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Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
All season, Jalen Brunson has carried a huge workload for the Knicks. Early in this series, he was productive but not efficient, leaving himself plenty of room for improvement. He hit that ceiling in Game 4, pouring in 47 points to go with 10 assists on his way to 71 DraftKings points. He leads the Knicks with a 37.8% usage rate so far in the playoffs and has produced 1.29 DraftKings points per minute. It isn’t just his scoring either; he has dished out at least six assists in each of the four games against Philly so far.
In Game 5, Brunson has the highest median projection of all point guards on Tuesday’s slate, and he has the second-highest median projection on the entire slate behind only Embiid. He also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Part of that is due to his 36.7% usage projection which gives him both a very high floor and a very high ceiling.
Brunson is a proven big-game performer and has a chance to get his team to the next round on Tuesday night. After his mammoth Game 4, look for him to deliver another big game at Madison Square Garden.
Value
After losing Game 1 to the Bucks, the Pacers have stormed back with three straight wins. In each of those wins, Andrew Nembhard has scored at least 15 points and exceeded salary-based expectations. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and the highest of all shooting guards on Tuesday’s slate. He would get more work if Haliburton is out, but even with Hali in our projections, Nembhard has good value.
Nembhard has played over 37 minutes in each of the last two games in this series and knocked down three three-pointers in each of those contests. He has produced 0.75 DraftKings points per minute but averaged 34.5 minutes per game to be a good value option.
He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all players at all positions with a salary under $5,000 on this slate, and the Pacers have the highest implied team total on the slate. Nembhard is a hustler who shines on the defensive end and has been able to contribute good scoring in the last few games. He’s an inexpensive way to get good exposure to the Pacers and has both a high floor and a high ceiling due to his large workload.
Fast Break
Tyrese Maxey has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the four games in this series, producing 1.14 DraftKings points per minute with a 29.0% usage rate. He had a monster game of 35 points and 10 assists in Game 2 at Madison Square Garden and will need to put up another monster performance to keep the 76ers alive. He is a strong alternative to Brunson, although a little riskier.
Haliburton played through his back issue and had a series-high 24 points in Game 4, but his assist numbers slipped. He had the upside for a massive double-double, but he was already a very volatile option due to his reduced usage over the last few weeks. With the injury risk added in, he’s a boom-or-bust pivot from Maxey and Brunson best reserved for GPP variance usage.
Darius Garland has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard but has produced just 0.81 DraftKings points per minute and has fallen short of salary-based expectations so far in this series. The Cavs will need him to step up as they come back to Cleveland for Game 5. He does have good non-scoring numbers and is playing plenty of minutes, but he hasn’t had a huge scoring performance yet in the playoffs.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Cavaliers need Donovan Mitchell to take over Game 5 for them and play like the superstar he has proven that he can be. He stands out as the top stud play at shooting guard on this slate, with the highest median projection by a wide margin and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
He had 30 points in Game 1 but only totaled 31 points in the team’s two losses in Orlando. His shot has been off for the past few games, but his usage has remained high, and he has turned in good non-scoring numbers. He has a very high ceiling, with a 29.8% usage projection on Tuesday, and he has proven he can post monster stat lines to get his team big wins.
His output over the past few games has been disappointing but returning home should give him a chance for a bounce-back performance. He averaged over 50 DraftKings points per game in his 28 regular-season home games and is about the only shooting guard on the slate that has the potential for that kind of performance on Tuesday.
Value
While Andrew Nembhard (discussed above) has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard, his teammate Aaron Nesmith isn’t far behind. Nesmith has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and the fifth-highest at small forward. He also has the second-highest median projection at the position even though he comes with only the fifth-highest salary.
Like Nembhard, Nesmith struggled in Game 1 but has had a strong series since. He has scored double-digit points in each of the last three games and is averaging 0.70 DraftKings points per minute in 38.3 minutes per game so far in the series.
Nesmith has played the second-most minutes on the team behind only Pascal Siakam, so his heavy workload keeps him a low-risk play with a good ceiling against the Bucks in Game 5. Nesmith and Nembhard both contribute in non-scoring categories as well and are solid value options to get exposure to the Pacers’ up-tempo, high-scoring style.
Fast Break
Patrick Beverley has filled in for the Bucks in the backcourt in this series, averaging 0.64 DraftKings points per minute in 33.3 minutes per game. He can contribute in multiple categories when he’s at his best but hasn’t been able to reach salary-based expectations since Game 1, while his salary has climbed to over $5,000.
Kelly Oubre Jr. is a solid mid-range target on the wing. He has played over 38 minutes in three of the four games in this series, scoring double-digit points in each of those games with an expanded workload. Overall, he has averaged only 0.75 DraftKings points per minute but has played 35.3 minutes per game to still be a decent fantasy option. He also has the potential to explode offensively, although his usage from game to game has been a little inconsistent.
If you opt to spend down at shooting guard, Cole Anthony has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options with salaries under $4,000. Anthony had 10 points off the bench in Game 3 and has been solid in his limited role off the bench.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Without Giannis and Dame, the workload in the Bucks’ offense has fallen squarely on the shoulders of Khris Middleton. Middleton has the highest median projection at small forward on the slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position as well.
Middleton has a 30.1% usage rate in the series so far, the highest of any Bucks player who has appeared in all four games. He has produced a solid 1.22 DraftKings points per minute and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games. He ended up with a double-double in both those losses in Indiana and has also handed out at least five assists in each of the last three games without Dame.
During the regular season and the playoffs, he has shouldered a huge workload when his superstar teammates have been out, and that trend will likely have to continue in Game 5. When he has been on the floor, Middleton has had a good season for the Bucks this year, and they’ll need another huge effort from him on Tuesday if they want to give Dame and Giannis a chance to return later in the series.
Value
Most of the best value options at small forward come with big salaries on this slate, but OG Anunoby has the best Projected Plus/Minus of the small forward options with salaries under $6,000. Like many of the Knicks’ starters, Anunoby has played huge minutes when available, and he’ll likely get even more work without Bogdanovic coming off the bench behind him.
In the series, OG has averaged 38.5 minutes per game and produced 0.69 DraftKings points per minute. While that production rate isn’t especially inspiring, he has reached double-digit points in each contest and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games.
His best game of the series, and possibly since joining the Knicks, came on Sunday when he had 16 points, 14 boards and 40.5 DraftKings points while playing 47 minutes in the Knicks’ narrow win in Philly. If he’s going to be on the floor that much going forward, he should have no problem returning value at this price point.
Fast Break
Josh Hart only scored four points in Game 4 but still had 17 boards and five assists to fall barely short of salary-based expectations. His minutes and non-scoring contributions make him a safe play, and he went off for 54.75 DraftKings points in his last home game, so there’s also a high ceiling rolling with Hart, who like the other Knicks starters is playing massive minutes in the playoffs.
Game 4 was a huge breakout performance for Franz Wagner, who carried the load for the Magic and dropped 34 points to go with 13 rebounds on his way to over 60 DraftKings points. He has been very strong all series, but his salary has climbed back over $7,000 as a result. While he brings a great ceiling, there is a risk that he may defer more to Paolo Banchero in Game 5 as he did earlier in the series before carrying the load in Game 4.
Andre Jackson Jr. has unique point guard/small forward eligibility, which helps him fit in multiple roster constructions with his low salary of $3,800. He had been quiet in the series until producing 32 DraftKings points in 25 minutes in Game 4. He had six points, six rebounds, seven assists and three steals in his expanded role, and he may have earned more time in Game 5. He’s high risk due to his uncertain role, but he has shown more upside than the Bucks’ other options.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Over the last few weeks of the season and into the playoffs, Pascal Siakam has shown exactly why the Pacers targeted him at the trade deadline and are looking to build around the superstar forward for many years to come. He has the highest median projection of all power forwards on this slate and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus.
In this series, Siakam has produced 1.24 DraftKings points per minute while logging 39.5 minutes per game. He had over 60 DraftKings points in each of the two games in Milwaukee to start the series, with 35+ points and a double-double in each contest. The Pacers’ supporting cast stepped up in their two home games, but they’ll rely on Spicy P to bring them into the next round on Tuesday.
Siakam has both a high ceiling and a high floor since he contributes in multiple categories and will get plenty of minutes Tuesday night.
Value
On the other side of that Bucks-Pacers matchup, Bobby Portis has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate. Portis will have to continue to carry the load with Giannis and Dame out, and he has a high ceiling and should bring plenty of value as a result of the extra work.
After logging 44 minutes in Game 3 and posting 44 DraftKings points, Portis played just seven minutes on Sunday. He was ejected after getting into a scuffle with Nembhard due to a “slap with contact to the head.” Portis left his team in an awful spot, and they were too shorthanded to overcome his absence.
An upside to his early exit is that he should be rested and extra motivated to return with a huge Game 5. He has averaged 1.04 DraftKings points per minute so far this series, with a 25% usage rate. He had three double-doubles in the three games in which he played his regular minutes, so as long as he keeps his head on Tuesday, he is a great candidate to exceed salary-based expectations by a significant margin.
Fast Break
Paolo Banchero had a monster Game 3 to get the Magic their first win in Orlando and then took a back seat to Franz Wagner in Game 4. Before scoring just nine points in that contest, he had at least 20 in each of the first three games in the series and has consistently turned in good non-scoring stats as well. In the first four games of the series, he has produced 1.12 DraftKings points per minute. The Magic will need him to step up if they want to take control of the series, and he should resume his role as the team’s top offensive option after Wagner’s big Game 4.
Banchero’s teammate Jonathan Isaac has also had a good series. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in two of the four games, producing 1.08 DraftKings points per minute in 20.8 minutes per game. After starting Game 1, Isaac came off the bench in Game 4 with 14 points, seven rebounds and 32.25 DraftKings points in 20 minutes. He has good value upside and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards with salaries under $5,000.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid has been excellent in the postseason despite playing through a questionable tag in every game. He has the highest median projection on the slate on Tuesday night and the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate despite his elevated salary, which is $1,400 higher than any other player on the board.
Embiid has produced 1.47 DraftKings points per minute in this series and exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last three contests. He had his massive 50-point performance in Game 3 that resulted in 69 DraftKings points and followed that up with 58.5 DraftKings points in Game 4 on 27 points, 10 rebounds, and six assists. He scored at least 29 points in each game this series and leads the team with a sky-high 36.4% usage rate.
Unless his injury flares up, Embiid should be able to put up another monster night as he and the Sixers battle for their playoff lives. If you can find a way to make his monster salary work under your salary cap, he brings the highest ceiling of any player on the board.
Value
In the absence of Giannis, Myles Turner has been able to put together a big series against the Bucks. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center, ahead of Embiid and behind only Portis.
Turner has exceeded salary-based expectations in each game in this series, with an Average Plus/Minus of +14.0. He has averaged 1.26 DraftKings points per minute while logging 36.3 minutes per game. While Siakam’s production dipped a bit in the last two games, Turner has stepped up with 29 points in each victory, posting 45.75 DraftKings points in Game 3 and 55.75 DraftKings points in Game 4.
If you can’t spend up on Embiid and don’t trust Portis after his Game 4 outburst, Turner has proven that he can be a strong option at center with a high ceiling in this matchup. When he and Siakam are both playing so efficiently, the Pacers will be a tough matchup for any team.
Fast Break
Jarrett Allen continues to quietly put together a strong postseason for the Cavs. He has averaged 1.28 DraftKings points per minute in their series so far. He had a pair of impressive double-doubles in the Cavs’ two home wins, and they’ll need him to put together another strong performance if they want to retake the lead in the series.
Wendell Carter Jr. had a strong game in Game 4 with 11 points in 24 minutes. He’ll likely continue to start ahead of Isaac, although both have decent fantasy potential. Isaac has the added versatility of sliding to power forward, though, which makes him an easier play to incorporate, even though Carter’s projections are a little higher.
