The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Monday features a nine-game slate starting at 7:07 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Joe Ryan ($10,400) Minnesota Twins (-167) vs. Chicago White Sox
It’s hard to ask for much more than what Joe Ryan has given us this season. He comes into Monday with a 3.45 ERA through five starts, despite some bad luck. His expected ERA (xERA) is just 2.27, with other leading indicators in a similar range. He’s also struck out more than 32% of the batters he’s faced, which is the best mark of his young career. He’s also made improvements to his swinging strike rate and average fastball velocity in 2024. All of this has translated to Ryan being a top-five AL Cy Young candidate based on betting odds.
It’s also hard to ask for much more out of the matchup. The White Sox are the worst offense in baseball by wRC+ while striking out at a solid 24.6% clip. While that’s not awful, it’s not great either. Combined with Ryan’s strikeout rate, it’s enough for our models to give Ryan the highest K prediction on the board.
He also has the best opponent Vegas total, so he checks all of the boxes here. He’s the clear leader in median and ceiling projection in both THE BAT and FantasyLabs models on Monday.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Max Fried ($8,700) Atlanta Braves (-154) at Seattle Mariners
While there’s some cheaper options that are perfectly reasonable on Monday’s slate, I’ll be targeting the high upside of Fried at his somewhat cheap price. It’s been a bit of a down year for Fried, with a 4.97 ERA and sub-20% strikeout rate so far. Or at least it had been until his last start — a complete game shutout against the Marlins good for nearly 40 DraftKings points.
The Mariners are a tougher matchup than Miami by most metrics. However, if we dig a little deeper, it paints a solid picture for Fried. Seattle is one of a handful of teams with worse splits against lefties than righties, for one. Additionally, they have the highest strikeout rate in the majors at north of 28%.
Those factors give Fried plenty of upside, even though he hasn’t done a great job missing bats this year. Fried also has a long track record as a mid-20% strikeout guy, and I don’t see any reason he won’t get back to those numbers this year.
Fried trails only Ryan in median and ceiling projection in both systems, and he leads THE BAT with his solid Pts/Sal mark.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Garret Crochet ($8,600) Chicago White Sox (+141) vs. Minnesota Twins
Through six starts, Crochet has an absolutely baffling stat line. He has a 2.59 xERA, a 3.02 xFIP… and a 6.37 ERA. One of those factors has to give, and my money is on the ERA.
A large part of that is due to his ability to miss bats. His swinging strike rate is an excellent 14.3%, with an also-elite 32% strikeout rate. Teams shouldn’t be able to continue to put up runs against him if they can’t put the ball in play, at least in theory. His HR/FB ratio is also nearly double the league average, another number that should regress to the mean over time.
More importantly though, he’s an excellent game theory play today. With Ryan likely to be the most popular pitcher on the slate, ownership on his opponent will be suppressed. On top of that, a win for Crochet locks Ryan out of a win bonus by definition.
While the Twins are clearly a better offense than the White Sox, they’re far enough from elite that we don’t need to avoid them in DFS. The likeliest outcome is Ryan is the better of the pairing — but it’s not as likely as the 8x ownership difference suggests. He’s my favorite GPP option on the slate.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers:
There’s never really a bad time to stack the Dodgers. As a team, they have the best offense in baseball by wRC+. Three members of this stack are inside the top-20 players by the same metric, including number one (Betts) and number six (Ohtani.)
Today, they’re the only team implied for more than five runs, with a 5.4 total. They’re on the road, which guarantees them a ninth inning of offense, plus they get a solid boost to their Park Factor compared to their home games.
Fitting this Dodgers stack is tricky and requires a leap of faith on a cheaper pitching option, but they have the potential to break the slate. They’ve scored double-digit runs thrice in their last seven games.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Zach Neto SS ($2,600) Los Angeles Angels (+120) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez)
To have any hope of fitting in a full Dodgers stack, we need to find some value. There’s not a ton of obvious options, but one that stands out is Neto. That’s thanks to his strong — albeit somewhat small sample size — platoon splits against lefties. Let’s take a look using PlateIQ:
Obviously he’s not a better hitter than Mike Trout ($6,300), but those are solid numbers nonetheless. Hitting between Trout and Taylor Ward ($5,100) is also a bonus, assuming the Angels lineup shakes out as expected.
George Springer OF ($4,300) Toronto Blue Jays vs. Kansas City Royals (Jake Bowlan)
Springer continues to see his salary fall on DraftKings, now down to $4,300 after starting the season around $5,000. That’s thanks to fairly poor results so far in 2024 (a .219 batting average and .654 OPS).
However, Springer is due for some considerable regression. Has BABIP is .230, well below his career .299 mark, and he’s putting the ball in play with just a 12.6% strikeout rate. His Blue Jays are implied for a solid 4.9 runs against Jonathan Bowlan ($6,000), who’s making his first MLB start of the season after breaking camp in AAA.
That makes Springer an attractive hitter from the lead-off spot, and he’s somewhat possible to work around Dodgers stacks with enough savings elsewhere.
