The NBA gets another work week underway with a three-game playoff slate this Monday. In the first two games of the night, the top seeds in the Eastern and Western Conference are playing Game 4 of their series. The Thunder can close out a sweep of the Pelicans, while the Celtics are looking to go up 3-1 on the Heat after two dominant wins sandwiched around a loss in Game 2. In the final game of the night, the Nuggets will look to close out the Lakers after Los Angeles extended the series with a win on Saturday.
Even with the Lakers involved, the injury report for Monday is pretty straightforward. Both Anthony Davis (wrist) and LeBron James (ankle) are probable along with Nuggets PG Reggie Jackson (ankle). The only major questionable star is Jamal Murray (calf). As news breaks throughout the day, be sure to always refresh our models for the latest projections.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Despite his calf strain, Jamal Murray stands out as a great play against the Lakers. He has the highest floor projection, the highest Projected Plus/Minus, and the most Pts/Sal of all point guards, and he has the second-highest ceiling and median projections behind only Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is the highest-priced point guard.
Murray has scored at least 20 points in each of the four games in this series with a huge double-double in Game 1 and at least five assists in each game. He has averaged a solid 1.04 DraftKings points per minute and leads the team with a 30.1% usage rate.
The Nuggets have the highest implied team total on Monday, and their matchup has the highest over/under by a 12-point margin. With more points being scored, Murray should be a great play compared to other point guards as long as his calf injury isn’t worse than expected. If he is limited or out, Reggie Jackson would become an instant top value play, and the rest of the team would all get more usage.
Value
The Lakers got two good games at home from Austin Reaves, who has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and the second-highest at shooting guard. No guard at either position with a salary lower than him has a better Projected Plus/Minus.
Reaves had 22 points and 41.75 DraftKings points in Game 3 and followed that up with 21 points and 31.25 DraftKings points in Game 4. He has averaged 35 minutes per game in this series and produced 0.84 DraftKings points per minute.
The Lakers desperately need the supporting cast around LeBron and Davis to step up, and Reaves has the potential to do that, bringing a high ceiling and multiple ways to contribute from his salary of $6,000.
Fast Break
Gilgeous-Alexander has the highest ceiling and median projections of all point guards and has led the Thunder to three wins in three games. While his numbers haven’t been outstanding, he has been trending up, with 40, 48.75 and 51.25 DraftKings points in the first three games of the series. He’s slightly more expensive than Murray and may not need to do quite as much against the short-handed Pelicans, but he is a pay-up play to consider after averaging a solid 1.26 DraftKings points per minute and logging 37 minutes per game in this series.
With Zion Williamson sidelined, C.J. McCollum and Brandon Ingram need to step up and carry the load for the Pelicans, but neither star has dominated yet in this series. Of the two, McCollum has been the better option, producing 0.93 DraftKings points per minute compared to 0.79 DraftKings points per minute from Ingram. McCollum leads the team with a 28.3% usage rate and did exceed salary-based expectations in Game 3 by contributing seven assists and five rebounds to go with his 16 points. If the Pelicans are to extend the series, McCollum will need a signature performance.
If you have to go cheaper at point guard, Josh Giddey is a good mid-range option. In Game 3, he filled in the box score with 21 points, eight rebounds, and six assists for 42.5 DraftKings points in 31 minutes. He has averaged 1.02 DraftKings points per minute in the series so far. Payton Pritchard is an even cheaper play with good upside, but his role has been reduced in the playoffs since the Celtics are fully healthy.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
With Jimmy Butler (knee) and Terry Rozier (neck) still out, Tyler Herro is still the man in Miami. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all shooting guards on Monday, and he has the highest usage projection at the position as well.
In the first three games of the series, Herro has averaged 0.95 DraftKings points per minute with a 25.0% usage rate. He showed his ceiling, with a monster 56.25 DraftKings points in Game 2 and a double-double of 24 points and 14 assists.
Herro only had two assists in Game 3, and Miami will need him to get closer to his Game 2 production if they want to even their series with the Celtics before the series ships up to Boston for Game 5.
Value
Derrick White’s salary has dipped just below $6,000, and he represents good upside on the other side of that Eastern Conference matchup in Miami. White has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards and is behind only Giddey in Projected Plus/Minus of guards under $6,000.
White’s usage has been a little reduced in the playoffs since the Celtics have all their pieces back in the rotation. He often stepped into a bigger role down the stretch while Boston rested regulars, but in the playoffs, he has produced 0.85 DraftKings points per minute in 33 minutes per game with a 18.4% usage rate.
He has been very consistent, with at least 24.75 DraftKings points in each of the three games in the series, and he also brings the potential for a big night in multiple categories. This seems like a great place to buy the dip and get him as a good value play for Game 4.
Fast Break
Ingram has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards, but he has been put in a very tough situation, having to carry the load in the offense right after returning from his own injury. He hasn’t scored 20 points in any game in this series or reached salary-based expectations.
Jaylen Brown has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the last two games in Boston’s series and has averaged 1.21 DraftKings points per minute in 34.7 minutes per game. He leads the team with a 29.9% usage rate and an impressive 60.9 eFG%. He isn’t a cheap play and has much more support than Herro or Ingram, but he has continued to be critical to the Celtics’ success.
If you’re shopping under $5,000, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope remains a solid play since he gets so many minutes for the Nuggets. He exceeded salary-based expectations with 14 points and 29 DraftKings points in Game 4 and has played over 35 minutes in every game in this series.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Throughout the series, LeBron James has been a great fantasy option, and once again, he has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all small forwards and also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Playoff LeBron has produced 1.33 DraftKings points per minute in the four games this series while playing 39.8 minutes per game with a 30.2% usage rate. He had a series-high 30 points in Saturday’s win, and he will likely have a huge workload for as long as the Lakers can stay alive in the postseason. We may not have too many more “LeBron nights” remaining, but a potential elimination game on the road sets up for The King to reign supreme with another big stat line on Monday.
Value
While helping fill in for injured teammates, Jaime Jaquez Jr. has had a busy series against Boston. Jaquez has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forward and power forwards with salaries under $6,000.
He leads the Heat with a 26.5% usage rate in his 33.3 minutes per game so far this series and has produced 0.75 DraftKings points per minute. Jaquez has at least 12 points in each game and brings a high floor with so many opportunities.
While the rookie hasn’t hit for a huge game yet against the Celtics, he showed he has good upside, with over 35 DraftKings points in three of his last four games coming into the series. He’s a high-ceiling, high-floor play at a very solid price at forward.
Fast Break
Jalen Williams brings unique flexibility with his point guard and small forward eligibility on DraftKings. He has produced over 35 DraftKings points in each game of this series and a solid 1.09 DraftKings points per minute. He doesn’t have quite the ceiling of LeBron since he’s not his team’s primary scorer, but he still is a very solid play at over $7,000.
Of the small forwards with salaries under $5,000, Luguentz Dort has the best Projected Plus/Minus. He has played over 30 minutes in each of the three games in this series and scored double-digit points to exceed salary-based expectations in Game 2 and Game 3.
Naji Marshall is another cheap play who is regularly getting minutes in that series. He has the potential to go off and help fill in some of the scoring for the Pelicans but only managed five points in 22 minutes in Game 3.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Behind only LeBron James, Jayson Tatum brings the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at power forward, and his salary is not bad at all at just over $9,000. Tatum has a very high ceiling if he ends up carrying the Celtics offense, but he does have a strong supporting cast around him.
He exceeded salary-based expectations in Game 1 and Game 3 of this series and has averaged a team-high 1.25 DraftKings points per minute while playing 40 minutes per contest. Tatum had a huge triple-double in Game 1 and a double-double of 22 points, 11 rebounds, and six assists in Game 3. His multi-category production and upside as a scorer make him a great pay-up option whenever the Celtics are on the slate.
Value
The Nuggets’ power forwards have been great values in their series with the Lakers, and both Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. are again solid mid-range targets for Monday.
With a slightly lower salary, Gordon has a higher Projected Plus/Minus on Monday, although Porter has been more consistent throughout the series. Gordon flashed his high ceiling with a 29-point, 15-rebound performance in Game 3 that resulted in 54.75 DraftKings points.
Porter has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the four games in this series by producing 1.09 DraftKings points per minute in the series. He has an average Plus/Minus of +10.4 DraftKings points per game in the series, and he remains surprisingly affordable given his consistently strong production.
Fast Break
Kristaps Porzingis bounced back from a bad Game 2 with 18 points and 34.75 DraftKings points in Game 3. His spacing and contributions to Boston’s offense are critical, but his salary seems a little high given his limited upside. He is a solid play, but he doesn’t offer the upside of the two Nuggets’ options on Monday’s slate.
If you have to go cheap at power forward, Al Horford is only $4,200 and playing well over 20 minutes off the bench each game for Boston. He chips in a bit of everything across the board, and his salary has gone down $1,000 since the start of the series.
Christian Wood is at the minimum salary. He has been out for a long time but could be a good value if he is ready to play significant minutes on Monday.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Even though they won Game 4, the Lakers really have no answer for Nikola Jokic. Jokic has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections of any player on Saturday’s slate and the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate as well.
In the Nuggets’ Game 4 loss, Jokic posted his best fantasy game of the series, with 33 points, 14 rebounds and 14 assists for 79.5 DraftKings points. He has produced an impressive 1.72 DraftKings points per minute in 40.0 minutes per game in the series and also terrorized the Lakers in their regular season matchups.
Throughout the last month, the Joker has brought both a high ceiling and a high floor to every slate the Nuggets are on. He has either a double-double or a triple-double in 18 straight games dating back to the regular season. Even though his salary is extremely high, his production is so high that he’s still worth considering as a centerpiece on Monday.
Value
If you pass on Jokic and Davis at the top of the salary structure, Chet Holmgren is a good mid-range target to consider with his salary just under $7,000. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position behind only Jokic and Davis, and he has the fourth-highest ceiling projection behind just those two and Bam Adebayo.
Holmgren dominated the first two games of the series, posting over 40 DraftKings points in each contest, but he struggled a little in Game 3 and only managed 25 DraftKings points on six points and eight rebounds. Since he’s still a rookie in his first playoffs, some inconsistency like that is to be expected, but he should be able to bounce back in Game 4 as the Thunder look to move on to the next round.
Fast Break
Davis has been excellent all season and has continued his strong production in the playoffs. He hasn’t been able to limit Jokic much at all but has produced 1.45 DraftKings points per minute in 41.8 minutes per game. He had 25 points and 23 rebounds in Game 4 and has posted over 52 DraftKings points in each of the four games in this series. He’s expensive but still has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the slate behind only Jokic.
Jonas Valanciunas has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points per minute so far this series and exceeded salary-based expectations, with 13 points and 20 rebounds in Game 1 and 19 points and seven boards in Game 2. He had a more limited role in Game 3, playing just 12 minutes, but he remains a boom-or-bust play with upside on Monday.
With so many big-name centers on the board, there are very limited cheap options. Jaylin Williams is only $3,200 and has been the Thunder’s primary backup big man. He had five points and two boards in 10 minutes in Game 3 after playing 17 minutes but not producing many stats in Game 2. He’s the best punt play if you pay up in other spots, but it’s hard to pass up the value and ceilings that come with Jokic and Davis.
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