The best-ball meta can change from one year to the next as far as draft strategy and roster construction go, but two of the core principles are valuing players based on ceiling and leveraging the power of correlations via stacking members of the same team. With that in mind, here are five best ball fantasy football takeaways now that Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft is in the books.
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Best Ball Fantasy Football Takeaways from the NFL Draft
1. Rome Odunze to Chicago Raises the Ceiling of Caleb Williams/Bears Stacks, Creates Opportunity to Buy the Dips on the Other Bears Receivers
The Odunze selection is great news for the fantasy value of Caleb Williams and the Bears offense for a number of reasons. For one, Odunze is one of the better wide-receiving prospects of the past decade, with size (6-foot-3, 212 pounds), speed (4.45 forty), and the skills to line up inside or outside and catch the ball at all three levels. Secondly, selecting him at No. 9 overall with DJ Moore and Keenan Allen already on the roster suggests the Bears have no reservations about being a high-volume passing team despite starting a rookie at quarterback. And even if that’s not the intent, it could happen naturally with the Bears opting against adding a defensive player to a unit that finished 20th in points allowed per game (22.3) last season.
Purely from a value perspective, the Bears are not an ideal landing spot for Odunze in the short term, as he’ll likely spend his rookie season as the No. 3 option behind Moore and Allen instead of potentially being the No. 1 on a team like the Chargers or Giants. Likewise, it’s obviously not ideal for Moore, Allen, and Cole Kmet to have to share targets with a blue-chip prospect like Odunze instead of an inconsequential, low-volume WR3 like Tyler Scott would have been. As a result, the ADPs of Moore (WR15, 23rd overall on Underdog), Allen (WR27, 43rd), Kmet (TE15, 122nd), and Odunze himself (WR29, 46th) will likely plummet while only Williams (QB12, 104th) rises, making it cheaper to stack the Bears, which is what we care about most in best ball.
And even if we take stacking out of the equation, we’ll still get the opportunity to buy the dips on Moore, last year’s WR7 who put up a 96/1,364/8 line with Justin Fields as his QB; Allen, last year’s WR8 despite playing only 13 games; Kmet, who was last year’s TE7 with a 73/619/6 line and could easily replicate that line in a higher-volume pass offense with a better QB and less defensive attention; not to mention Odunze, who could have been a Round 2-3 fantasy pick in a better landing spot. Remember, in best ball we care about ceilings not floors, and It’s quite possible that two or even three of those four players still hit their ceilings, which will now come at a discount compared to their pre-draft ADP. Despite Chicago’s crowded pass-catching corps, having exposure to different combinations of Moore/Allen/Odunze/Kmet could still pay off in a big way.
2. The Bears Aren’t the Only Team Picking in the Top-Four to Stack; Don’t Sleep on the Commanders with Jayden Daniels and the Cardinals with Marvin Harrison Jr.
Daniels (QB18, 128th) has QB1 upside thanks to the dual-threat ability as a runner (1,134 yards, 10 TDs last season) and passer (11.7 YPA, 40 TD, 4 INT) he showcased at LSU last season. His targets will likely be highly concentrated among Terry McLaurin (WR36, 62nd), Jahan Dotson (WR63, 139th), and Austin Ekeler (RB30, 101st), all of whom are arguably more talented than their ADPs would otherwise suggest: McLaurin has four straight 1,000-yard seasons, Dotson was the No. 16 overall pick in 2022 and Ekeler is averaging 74.8 receptions for 640.2 yards and 4.8 TDs through the air over the past five seasons.
Harrison Jr. (WR9, 15th) gives Kyler Murray (QB10, 86th) a generational wide receiving prospect, and along with Trey McBride (TE3, 49th) gives the Cardinals three players who have the upside to finish top-three at their respective position. After showing flashes as a rookie with 38/565/3, 2023 third-round pick Michael Wilson (WR67, 147th) is an intriguing Year 2 leap candidate who can be had on the cheap. Harrison’s steep price makes this stack tough to execute, but for those who can swing it, it could pay off in a massive way.
3. Xavier Worthy to the Chiefs is the Perfect Best-Ball Landing Spot, Could Return Mahomes to overall QB1 Status
In selecting Worthy, the Chiefs are pairing the fastest wide receiver ever recorded at the Combine (4.21 forty) with the best quarterback on the planet (not to mention, arguably the best coach at scheming players open in space). Forget the fact that between Tyreek Hill and Rashee Rice, the Chiefs produced a long line of fantasy busts at WR, and forget that Worthy will likely be the fourth option behind Travis Kelce, Rice, and free-agent newcomer Marquise Brown – pairing an outlier receiver with an outlier QB could lead to outlier results, which is what we’re looking for in best ball. Also: Kelce is 35, Rice could be facing a lengthy suspension, and Brown is no guarantee to pan out after signing a one-year, $7 million prove-it deal.
But if Brown does pan out, Kelce remains Kelce, and Rice only misses a few games, Worthy could be what puts this passing offense back over the top and allows Mahomes to return to his pre-2023 levels of production and once again approach 5,000-plus passing yards and 40-plus TDs.
The Chiefs are by no means cheap to stack, but from a relative standpoint their prices are intriguing, as Mahomes’ ADP (QB5, 52nd) is the lowest its been since his rookie year and Kelce’s ADP (TE2, 40th) is the lowest it’s been since the days of Alex Smith. The ADP’s of Rice (WR26, 41st) and Brown (WR35, 59th) will likely drop, making it possible to stack at least one of them with Mahomes, Kelce, and Worthy (WR47, 94th).
4. Brock Bowers to the Raiders Makes the Tight End Ranks Even Murkier
Filling your TE spots seems like a crapshoot every year, and this year is no different. But Brock Bowers (TE9, 79th) was supposed to give us another no-brainer TE1 option, and Michael Mayer (TE8, 157th) was supposed to provide TE1 upside at a TE2 price as a Year 2 breakout candidate. Then Bowers went to the Raiders at No. 13 overall, which not only quashes Mayer’s breakout appeal, but also represents perhaps the least ideal landing spot possible for Bowers among those that were considered most likely.
In joining the Raiders, Bowers goes to a team that not only has another Round 1 TE prospect drafted just one year ago, but also…
- A defensive-minded head coach (Antonio Pierce) who dialed up only 32.8 pass attempts per game last season
- An offensive coordinator (Luke Getsy) who was fired from the Bears and has never had an offense finish better than 22nd in DVOA
- Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell atop the QB depth chart
- An alpha dog at wide receiver (Davante Adams)
None of Bowers’ likely landing spots was going to be perfect (save for landing with the Chargers at No. 5), but his other most likely destinations had more working in his favor: The Jets at least have Aaron Rodgers at QB, the Colts at least have an offensive-minded head coach in Shane Steichen and a franchise QB in Anthony Richardson, and the Broncos have Sean Payton at head coach, and – with all due respect to Courtland Sutton – no alpha dog at WR.
5. Panthers, Giants Make for Intriguing Contrarian Stacking Options Thanks to Round 1 WR Selections
The Panthers traded up to No. 32 overall to select Xavier Legette (WR68, 150th) out of South Carolina, who ran a 4.39 forty at 6-foot-2, 221 pounds. He forms a potentially underrated WR trio with Diontae Johnson (WR40, 70th) and Adam Thielen (WR72, 161st). Johnson is one of the best route runners in the league, averages 5.1 receptions per game for his career, and is squarely in his prime at age 28. Thielen is in the twilight of his career, but still posted 103/1,014/4 on a bad offense last season. Bryce Young (QB28, 189th) was abysmal last season, but dealth with a rotten situation and still has No. 1 overall draft pedigree. The offensive line should also be better after adding Robert Hunt, and this stack is as cheap as it gets with the top player going off the board in the sixth round and every else being drafted in the double-digit rounds.
Malik Nabers (WR9, 18th) is expensive, but the uber-talented No. 5 overall pick makes stacking the Giants an interesting proposition given that the rest of their passing game is basically free. Daniel Jones (QB31, 208th) is a buy-low coming off a torn ACL who has shown high-upside fantasy flashes in the past and now gets the best WR he’s ever thrown to. He also may get to drop back more than ever with Saquon Barkley out of the picture. Last year’s third-round pick Jalin Hyatt (WR83, 199th) is a made-for-best-ball deep threat who could take a Year 2 leap and benefit from the coverage that Nabers commands. Adding a fourth is probably pushing it, but Wan’Dale Robinson (WR74, 172nd) was the No. 43 overall pick in 2022 and could be a high-volume slot guy or an explosive gadget guy that pops for enough big games to justify his cost. Darren Waller (TE31, 227th) is a former top-five fantasy TE whose being heavily discounted due to his potential retirement.
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