Stud Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner. Clayton Kershaw. Stephen Strasburg. And Steven Wright.
At FanDuel, you’re essentially forced to pick one of these guys, given the ceilings and floors of everyone else in comparison. And at DraftKings it would be suboptimal to fade all four. Consider this slate more of a Choose Your Own Adventure, the only difference being that the four outcomes vary incrementally.
Steven Wright, BOS
Wright might not be on the same pedestal as those others, but FanDuel notably gives 12 points for a win, which over the last month has allowed for Wright to average only 0.2 fewer FanDuel points than Strasburg has averaged and 2.2 fewer than Bumgarner. Meanwhile, his 95-percent Bargain Rating there has slated him with an accessible expected fantasy total that he has surpassed in six straight outings. It only helps that the White Sox’s projected lineup is averaging at least .040 more strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) than any of Bumgarner’s, Strasburg’s, and Kershaw’s opponents tonight.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD
The Nationals are one of only two teams (the Diamondbacks being the other) averaging an Isolated Power (ISO) over .200 against left-handed pitching. Even so, they currently have an implied Vegas total of just 2.3 runs — which makes only the seventh time this season that a team has had such a low total. Per our free Trends tool, facing an offense with a total no higher than 2.3 runs has resulted in a +9.46 Plus/Minus at DraftKings for pitchers. You could potentially opt to stack the pitchers in this matchup and fade the hitters entirely, but either way it’s once again a slate in which Kershaw, the only player with double-digit Pro Trends at his position, is potentially a giant among men.
Stephen Strasburg, WSH
It’s not just Strasburg’s 11.86 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) that stand out among the pack. Per our advanced stats, his 202-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last 15 days is also 18 feet shorter than Kershaw’s and 21 feet shorter than Bumgarner’s. He’s also arguably the most valuable of the three since he has a 98-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, despite his overall Consistency there:
Bargain Rating, Consistency, and Pro Trends are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Madison Bumgarner, SF
Recently, Bumgarner has allowed a hard-hit rate 13 percentage points higher and a batted-ball distance 20 feet farther than his yearly averages. Despite that, his average of 27.5 DraftKings points in the past month is second-highest among pitchers tonight. Given that bettors aren’t concerned with his recent stats and instead are backing him with 79 percent of moneyline bets, it makes sense that the Pirates have the second-lowest implied total of the evening.
Bargain Hitters
In the event that you’re squeezing in two of the aforementioned pitchers on DraftKings . . .
Jeff Mathis, MIA
Mathis should start against Jorge De La Rosa (a lefty). If that happens then he should put his .714 slugging percentage to good use. His .362 ISO Differential is .107 greater than the closest hitter’s in this slate.
Adam Lind, SEA
Lind has a 97-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel, despite being a top-five scorer at his position over the last month. His .121 ISO Differential trails only Ryan Zimmerman’s (.215) and Brandon Moss’ (.147) among first basemen.
Kolten Wong, STL
Wong is slugging only .342 against right-handed pitching, but he’s a player who A) is likely to hit second and B) costs only $200 above the minimum at DraftKings. His .097 steals per game (top-four among second basemen) could come in handy.
Javier Baez, CHC
Both Baez’s .174 and .096 Weighted On-Base Average and ISO Differentials are top-two among third basemen today. His batted-ball distance in the last 15 days sits at a paltry 190 feet, but he has still averaged the sixth-most DraftKings points over the last month at his position.
Steven Moya, DET
Moya has 10 Pro Trends tonight, tied with Jackie Bradley and Jake Marisnick for second-most among outfielders. His .155 ISO Differential is also top-four. And he costs only $2,400 at DraftKings tonight.
Nomar Mazara, TEX
Mazara has a bottom-three recent exit velocity at his position. Even so, he’s still slugging .506 versus right-handed pitching.
Good luck!
