NBA

NBA DFS (Friday, April 12): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Apr 12, 2024

For the final Friday of the regular season, DraftKings’ main slate features the first 11 games of the night. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Brooklyn Nets – $9,700 DraftKings

The Knicks are still alive for the No.2 seed in the East and will be highly motivated tonight. As they pursue a higher seed, Brunson has been brilliant, scoring 60.4 DraftKings PPG in his last five starts, with a 35.2% usage rate during this time, which ranks fourth in the NBA. As for his matchup, Brunson faces a Brooklyn defense that ranks 20^th in efficiency this season.

Barring a huge blowout, Brunson should see right around 40 minutes of work and score a minimum of 50 DraftKings points.

Top Value: Payton Pritchard vs. Charlotte Hornets – $5,400 DraftKings

Even with the Celtics at full strength last night vs. the Knicks, Pritchard posted 31 DraftKings points off the bench, marking his fourth performance of at least 30 DraftKings points in his last five. The reason for the guard’s success has been that Boston has been locked into the No.1 seed in the NBA for over a week, and their priority right now is staying healthy with the playoffs next weekend. With the Celtics sitting or giving their best players lighter workloads, Pritchard has been the primary beneficiary, and he should continue to thrive tonight.

While the Celtics have yet to release their injury report, Al Horford is guaranteed to be inactive after playing last night, as the veteran has yet to play in both legs of a back-to-back set this season. While they play different positions, Pritchard has seen the biggest boost with Horford out this season, amassing 27.2 DraftKings PPG with the veteran sidelined (15 games), via the On/Off Tool. The Celtics will likely be without more than just Horford and Pritchard should have zero issues exceeding 5x value against this Hornets’ team that ranks second-to-last in defensive efficiency this season.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Indiana Pacers – $9,000 DraftKings

Mitchell has been dealing with multiple injuries since the All-Star Break but finally regained his from and looked like his old self Wednesday. In a win over the Grizzlies, Mitchell delivered 55 DraftKings points across 33 minutes with a 30% usage rate. The Cavs have dropped six of their last 10 and need to get another victory tonight to lock up a top-five seed in the East, while the Pacers are looking to guarantee themselves a playoff berth with a win. This contest presents the highest total on the slate (233.5 points) and the Cavs are only 2.5-point favorites, via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. This playoff-like atmosphere is without question the best game on the slate to target, and Mitchell is one of the best ways to gain exposure.

The Pacers rank second in pace this season – compared to the Cavs who rank 23^rd – and in his lone matchup with Indiana back in November, Mitchell went off for 60.25 DraftKings points. The guard brings similar upside tonight and can be trusted for all formats.

Top Value: Jordan Goodwin vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,800 DraftKings

After being assigned to the G-League on Wednesday, Goodwin has been removed from the Grizzlies’ injury report and is expected to rejoin the team for tonight’s matchup vs. the Lakers. With Memphis down to only nine healthy bodies, Goodwin should slide right back into his starting point guard role and see a large workload. Before missing Wednesday’s game, Goodwin was generating 35.1 DraftKings points in 30 minutes per game in his previous six, including three double-doubles.

This matchup with the Lakers carries the third-highest total on the slate (225.5 points), and Goodwin is the No.1 value on the slate in our NBA models.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Jimmy Butler vs. Toronto Raptors – $8,400 DraftKings

The Heat are still alive for the No.7 seed in the East and should go all out for a win tonight. Securing the No.7 seed would ensure Miami has home-court for the first Play-In game next week, and on the menu for tonight is an elite matchup vs. the Raptors who rank sixth in pace and are second-to-last in defensive rating over their last 10 games. The Heat sport an implied team total of 116.25 points tonight, which is the largest implied team total they have seen in over a month.

Butler has exceeded 50 DraftKings points in two of his last three starts, and when he has played behind an implied team total of at least 115 points this season, the veteran is supplying 45.1 DraftKings PPG (nine games), via the Trends Tool.

Top Value: Tim Hardaway Jr. vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,700 DraftKings

The Mavs are likely to finish as the No.5 seed in the West, and with the league-worst Pistons in town tonight, Dallas has already ruled out Kyrie Irving (hamstring). Luka Doncic (ankle) is questionable but feels unlikely to play as well considering the circumstances for this contest. If the superstar ends up joining Irving on the sidelines, Hardaway will be an elite target vs. this Detroit defense that ranks 27^th in efficiency this season.

Dallas has been without both Doncic and Irving three times this season, and in those contests, Hardaway led his team with 31.1 DraftKings PPG and 31.1% usage rate, which is a huge 8.2 percentage-point lift from his season average, via the On/Off Tool.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Memphis Grizzlies – $10,300 DraftKings

Davis (eye) is probable for tonight after missing one game and is an awesome target with plenty on the line for the Lakers. While Los Angeles doesn’t fully control their own destiny, they must win tonight to keep their chances alive of finishing any higher than the No.10 seed in the West. Finishing that low would mean the Lakers would have to win both Play-In games next week to reach the Playoffs and that they wouldn’t have home-court for either of those contests.

Davis should see huge minutes tonight, and this extremely understaffed Grizzlies’ team has no player that has any chance of slowing down the big man. Before exiting the game early this past Sunday vs. the Wolves, Davis had scored at least 64 DraftKings points in back-to-back starts. Considering their motivation and depleted opponent, the Lakers boast the highest-implied team total on the slate (120.5 points) and Davis has a ceiling well over 60 DraftKings points in this situation.

Top Value: Noah Clowney vs. New York Knicks – $4,200 DraftKings

Regardless of this poor matchup vs. the Knicks – who rank seventh in defensive efficiency – Clowney is a difficult fade at this low salary. Clowney has been very effective for the Nets as the season winds down, producing 33 DraftKings PPG in his last four. The rookie has started in back-to-back games with Dorian Finney-Smith (knee) sidelined and has seen a team-high 36.7 minutes per game with the starting job. Finney-Smith will remain unavailable tonight, and with Brooklyn eliminated from the postseason, they should continue to feed Clowney huge minutes.

The big man collects 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and is criminally underpriced for his current role.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama vs. Denver Nuggets – $11,500 DraftKings

Wembanyama is the ultimate GPP play for this huge slate, with FantasyLabs is projecting the rookie for 1% ownership on DraftKings. Wembanyama hasn’t played since Tuesday after being rested Wednesday, and he is back at home tonight, where he is averaging a godly 62.4 DraftKings PPG in his last seven starts. Plus, while the Nuggets are a top-10 defense this season, Wembanyama just destroyed the defending champions for 75.25 DraftKings points in their own arena last Tuesday.

The blossoming superstar has scored 1.9 DraftKings PPM with a 33.1% usage rate since the Spurs lost Devin Vassell (head) and Jeremy Sochan (ankle) for the season seven games ago, and Wembanyama should put up a mammoth stat line in front of the San Antonio faithful tonight.

Top Value: Trey Jemison vs. Los Angeles Lakers – $5,100 DraftKings

Jemison remains too cheap for his current role as the Grizzlies’ starting center. Jaren Jackson, Jr. (quad) is out tonight, and for the last six times the big man has been inactive, Jemison has started at center for Memphis and provided 30 DraftKings points in 32.1 minutes per game. On top of Jackson, both Lamar Stevens (abductor) and Brandon Clarke (hand) will be out tonight, making Jemison the only natural big the Grizzlies have left. In fact, Jemison is the only healthy player on the Memphis roster that stands over 6’9”.

Jemison stands at 6’11”, and with a 6’10” Davis on the other side for the Lakers, Jemison should play all the minutes he can handle tonight and easily outperform this low salary with the immense volume.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.