On tap for Thursday is a five-game slate. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Jalen Brunson at Boston Celtics – $9,600 DraftKings
Brunson has been putting the team on his back recently, scoring over 60 DraftKings in four straight games and is a great target tonight, with the Knicks still fighting to secure a top-three seed in the East. During this incredible four-game stretch for the guard, Brunson has handled an eye-popping role, logging 40.5 minutes a night and garnering a 35.4% usage rate. When we compare the entire NBA’s last four games, this usage rate for Brunson ranks third, only trailing Joel Embiid and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
The Knicks head to Boston tonight, and while this would have been a difficult matchup a few weeks ago, the Celtics locked up the No.1 seed in the league last week and have nothing at stake for the rest of the regular season. As a result, they have listed five of their top-six players as questionable, and even if some of those players suit up, they won’t see their usual workloads. Given they have plenty to play for, the Knicks are favored by three points, and Brunson should lead them to victory with another massive performance.
Top Value: Payton Pritchard vs. New York Knicks – $5,000 DraftKings
With the Celtics having nothing to play for tonight and likely to be without multiple starters, Pritchard should see an expanded workload. With Boston taking the cautious approach over the last week and resting players every night, Pritchard has exceeded 30 DraftKings points in three of his past four games. Ranking eighth in defensive efficiency, the Knicks are a poor matchup, but Pritchard’s expected role trumps any concerns we should have.
The guard is logging 27.4 minutes per game ever since the Celtics secured the top seed in the league and is generating 0.91 DraftKings PPM since the All-Star Break, via the On/Off Tool. Pritchard brings great upside relative to his cheap salary and should come with little ownership if he remains a reserve tonight.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Dalano Banton vs. Golden State Warriors – $7,000 DraftKings
Banton has been a bright spot for the tanking Blazers and needs to be attacked in GPPs at this reasonable price tag. With Portland missing many key pieces – most notably Anfernee Simons (out, knee) and Jerami Grant (out, hamstring) – Banton has displayed a huge ceiling, scoring over 40 DraftKings points in five of his past eight games, including three efforts of at least 51 DraftKings points.
With a 26.2% usage rate, the veteran is amassing 1.1 DraftKings PPM this month. Banton has received at least 30 minutes in nine consecutive games and could explode in this up-tempo matchup. This season, the Warriors rank 10th in pace compared to the Blazers, who rank 17th.
Top Value: Talen Horton-Tucker vs. Houston Rockets – $3,700 DraftKings
Collin Sexton (illness) joined Utah’s long inactive list and will remain sidelined tonight, which is great news for Horton-Tucker. With Sexton out Tuesday vs. the Nuggets, Horton-Tucker thrived with 34.75 DraftKings points in 32.2 minutes off the bench. With Utah lacking offensive firepower, the veteran commanded an elite 38.1% usage rate, and he should continue to see a hefty usage rate tonight, this time in a much better spot vs. the Rockets.
In their last 10 games, Houston ranks ninth in pace and 25th in defensive rating, and this game’s total is the highest on the slate (227.5 points), via FantasyLabs’ Vegas page. Horton-Tucker is contributing 35.9 DraftKings PPG when given at least 25 minutes of work this season (10 games) and is a tremendous punt play tonight.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: DeMar DeRozan at Detroit Pistons – $8,100 DraftKings
The Bulls are 1.5-games ahead of the Hawks for the No.9 seed in the East, and securing that seed will give Chicago homecourt for when these two clubs face each other in a do-or-die Play-In game next week. After dropping two in a row, the Bulls desperately need to take care of business and defeat the lowly Pistons tonight, making DeRozan an appealing spend. With Chicago fighting to improve their seed, DeRozan has been seeing huge playing time, logging 38.1 minutes per game in his last 10. With the massive role, the forward has scored over 40 DraftKings points in eight of these 10 contests.
Detroit ranks 26th in defensive efficiency this season, and in this spot, the Bulls carry the third-highest implied team total on the slate (114.75 points), and they are 9.5-point favorites. When competing as a favorite this season, DeRozan has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in 19 of 30 games (63%), via the Trends Tool.
Top Value: Luka Samanic vs. Houston Rockets – $3,600 DraftKings
Assuming he gets his second start in place of Sexton, Samanic will be a must-play tonight. With a starting role Tuesday vs. the Nuggets, the 24-year-old made the most of the opportunity, posting a double-double of 33.5 DraftKings points across 34.5 minutes. This season, Samanic is providing 0.9 DraftKings PPM with a solid 21% usage rate. As noted above, the Jazz are in a much friendlier spot tonight after facing the defending champion, the Denver Nuggets, on Tuesday with the Rockets in town, who rank ninth in pace and 25th in defensive rating over their last 10 games.
This game’s total is the largest on the board (227.5 points), and Samanic is a real threat reach 10x value if he remains a starter. For the eight career games he has logged at least 20 minutes, Samanic is amassing 25.5 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Zion Williamson at Sacramento Kings – $8,900 DraftKings
Given that both of these teams are fighting to improve their seeds to possibly avoid the Play-In Tournament, Williamson is a viable pay-up option. The forward leads the Pelicans with a 29.6% usage rate this season and has eclipsed 40 DraftKings points in five of his last eight starts.
With the Kings only favored by one-point, Williamson should see close to 40 minutes barring foul trouble and score nothing less than 40 DraftKings points.
Top Value: Chimezie Metu vs. Chicago Bulls – $5,000 DraftKings
With the Pistons shorthanded and tanking, they have given Metu a large role, with him logging 38.7 minutes per game in their last two, which is the highest on the team by a whopping 7.5 minutes per game. This has translated into 31 DraftKings PPG for the veteran, and tonight presents a great matchup with the Bulls in town, who rank 27th in defensive rating over their last 10 games.
Metu is collecting 0.9 DraftKings PPM this season and should easily outperform this low price tag. For the 11 instances he has cracked the 25-minute mark this season, Metu is amassing 27 DraftKings PPG.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Deandre Ayton vs. Golden State Warriors – $8,400 DraftKings
Ayton has been a beast as of late, scoring 50.1 DraftKings PPG in his last five, all of which have been double-doubles. The center’s usage has been at a team-high 27.9% during this stretch, and while this is a subpar matchup vs. the Warriors – who rank 14th in defensive efficiency this season – Ayton is at home tonight, where he has been more comfortable.
Ayton has topped 50 DraftKings points in three of his past six starts at home and is simply too cheap for his potential.
Top Value: Omer Yurtseven vs. Houston Rockets – $4,500 DraftKings
Yurtseven is another excellent punt play from the shorthanded Jazz. Despite facing Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets on Tuesday, Yurtseven delivered a double-double of 40.75 DraftKings points in 37.2 minutes. Both these numbers easily set season highs for the Turkish professional, and Yurtseven should continue to see a large workload tonight with Utah not getting any healthy players off their injury report.
The center is producing 24.4 DraftKings PPG for the last five times he has logged over 20 minutes, and he has a ceiling over 30 DraftKings points against this struggling Houston club.
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