FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
The Main Slate this evening features a reasonable 10 games, with the Yankees-Rockies game appearing in the All-Day and Early Slates. Of the 20 teams in action tonight, only two are projected to exceed five runs at the time of this writing. The White Sox have the highest projected run total (5.3 runs), while Vegas is expecting the Royals to struggle in their matchup against Corey Kluber. Let’s take a look at some individual batters who are in good spots.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .449, David Ortiz
Technically, Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar rank first and second in this category today. While I wouldn’t fault you for targeting either player, each has accumulated fewer than 50 at-bats against the opposing handedness over the past calendar year.
Instead, I’m going to focus on Ortiz, who has a much more extensive history. Opposing pitcher Kevin Gausman has recently shown some promise, but a date with the Red Sox in Fenway puts him at risk of morphing into his alter ego, Kevin Gascan. If that’s the case, Ortiz could light him up. Over the last 206 games, Big Papi has posted a +2.60 Plus/Minus on FanDuel when facing a right-handed pitcher at Fenway Park.
Isolated Power (ISO): .366, Chris Davis
Ortiz also ranks first in ISO today, but right on his heels is Chris Davis. Not only will Davis bring his ridiculous ISO against right-handed pitching into today’s matchup, but he has also been hitting the ball well recently. Davis’ average distance on batted balls over the past 15 days is tied (with Jay Bruce’s) for the highest on today’s slate.
But it’s not all gravy for Davis today, as Fenway’s Park Factor for lefty bats is 39, which is a significant downgrade from Camden Yards, which scores 78 in the same category. Additionally, Davis will be facing Steven Wright, who relies on the knuckleball, a notoriously difficult pitch to project.
Park Factor: 65, Righties at US Cellular Field
In the absence of Coors Field on the Main Slate, righty bats at US Cellular Field will receive the largest boost tonight by way of its 65 Park Factor. Although this would generally be a good spot for the righty-heavy Tigers lineup, a date with Chris Sale takes most of the shine off.
We can take a look at White Sox righties, as their matchup with Mike Pelfrey is far less intimidating. Jose Abreu in particular stands out, as he has actually done much better in righty-righty matchups than righty-lefty matchups over the past calendar year. The cherry on top comes by way of a 73 Weather Rating in this game. Putting together the higher Park Factor and Weather Rating, along with a subpar opposing pitcher, Abreu has increased odds to homer in tonight’s game.
Distance Differential (Ft.): +49, Tyler Naquin
Tyler Naquin continues to rake, with a recent batted-ball distance of 257 feet over the past 15 days, besting his seasonal average by 49 feet. Although Naquin has played in only 39 career games, his recent stats put him in elite company. In terms of overall recent batted-ball distance, he ranks behind only Jay Bruce, Chris Davis, and Freddie Freeman.
It’s not in Naquin’s favor that tonight he will face Ian Kennedy at Kauffman Stadium, but there’s no denying how hot he has been over the past couple of weeks.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +27, Billy Butler
In addition to owning one of the best nicknames in baseball, Billy Butler has also been putting some extra gravy on the ball lately. Country Breakfast has raised his hard-hit percentage by 27 points over the past 15 days, sporting an impressive 58-percent mark. With a “meh” price tag at a loaded position that includes David Ortiz and Chris Davis, Butler is probably best deployed as part of an Oakland stack against the lefty Derek Holland.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Jose Altuve
He doesn’t have the greatest matchup in the world, as the Astros are set to take on Adam Wainwright on the road, but Altuve may be in play on FanDuel based on price alone. In 13 games priced below the $4,000 mark on FanDuel this season, Altuve is averaging 14 fantasy points and a +3.38 Plus/Minus.
Also, while we usually expect a price drop on FanDuel to coincide with poor performance, Altuve’s advanced stats over the past 10 days are right in line with his overall averages over the past calendar year. Listed at the same price as Dustin Pedroia, whom many may perceive to have a better matchup, Altuve could be a solid differentiation play at second base.
Pitchers
Despite a somewhat smaller slate, there are several aces on the mound this evening, including Noah Syndergaard, Corey Kluber, and Chris Sale. Let’s dive into the numbers and find out which ones stand out.
K Prediction (SO): 8.1, Drew Smyly
Drew Smyly and Noah Syndergaard (8.0) are neck-and-neck at the time of this writing, so let’s go with the less obvious play in Smyly. Although the Mariners have been an offense to fear in 2016, they lose some of their bite when facing a lefty: Their wOBA against said handedness ranks toward the middle of the league.
The Mariners are generally a lefty-heavy bunch and Smyly has been mowing down lefty bats in 2016 to the tune of a 31.8-percent strikeout rate. There is risk here — and it comes mainly from Nelson Cruz — but given Smyly’s K Prediction and 87 Park Factor, there is also Upside.
Plus/Minus, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Moneyline (ML): -186, Chris Sale
Sale is the heaviest favorite right now, but his matchup is by no means an easy one. The Tigers will roll out a lineup that features righties almost exclusively and, as mentioned above, the Park Factor will play to Detroit’s advantage. Also consider that starting pitchers have been hurt by a -2.4 Plus/Minus on FanDuel when Paul Emmel is the umpire behind home plate. Sale is a heavy favorite to win tonight, but at what DFS cost?
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +1.6, Hector Santiago
Santiago’s velocity has actually been up for much of 2016, to mixed results. In 2015, Santiago’s average velocity on his four-seam fastball was 90.2 MPH, which has jumped to 91.7 over 2016. Unfortunately, that has resulted in a wOBA jump of 75 points on that same pitch, although to be fair his BABIP is also up 40 points.
What I’m saying is that if you want to play Santiago due to his matchup against the Twins, great. But I wouldn’t weigh the increased velocity too heavily in this instance.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Corey Kluber
Kluber maxes out his Bargain Rating on FanDuel ahead of his matchup against the Royals. Kansas City has been a team against which for years we have avoided using pitchers in DFS, but more recently they have been cut down to size by a string of injuries. To that point, the Royals’ swinging strike rate and overall strikeout rate each rank within the bottom 10 over the past two weeks.
That is quite a turnaround for a team that has been notoriously difficult to strike out. Kluber’s matchup already looks decent based on his Bargain Rating, Park Factor, and Vegas forecast, but it’s even better when you factor in the current state of the Royals.
Bonus
Pro Trends: 11 (DK), Jay Bruce
Earlier I mentioned Bruce’s excellent recent advanced stats in passing, but he deserves his own mention as a qualifier for a slate-high 11 Pro Trends on DraftKings tonight. In addition to qualifying for basically every recent form-type of Pro Trend, Bruce also gains points for hitting in the middle of the order against the always-fun-to-pick-on Bud Norris. He won’t come cheap — he costs $4,500 on DraftKings — but he also might be relatively under-owned because of his price, as many will look to save at outfield in order to pay up at pitcher.
