Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
King of the Moun(d)tain
Congratulations to Matt Garza, who has yet to pitch in 2016 and is still finding ways to set records. Take the percentage of moneyline bets he has received so far. This season, only one pitcher — Aaron Blair — has received fewer than 10 percent of moneyline bets. Unsurprisingly, he failed to meet salary-based expectations by 18.4 points at FanDuel, where everyone meets expectations.
But it doesn’t end there.
Take it a step further and you’ll find that only nine pitchers (Blair included) have been backed by a single-digit percentage of moneyline bets since 2012, none closing any lower than seven percent. And the ensuing results? At FanDuel, pitchers finished with a -2.81 Plus/Minus. All that is to say that Garza is without a doubt the largest underdog of the evening, receiving seven percent of bets despite having a slate-low +241 moneyline.
Of course, Madison Bumgarner is the real reason that Garza is being piled on tonight. Let’s discuss where he currently stands.
In the nine instances since 2012 in which pitchers received greater than 90 percent of moneyline bets, they had a staggering +3.37 Plus/Minus at FanDuel. Bumgarner was actually the last (and only) pitcher to receive such notoriety this season, and he exceeded salary-based expectations by +28.78 points. Don’t think for one second that it’s only the cashflow from sharks pushing his moneyline percentage so high. It goes well beyond that.
Whether it’s that he has averaged 30.2 DraftKings points over the last month or a +6.59 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last 10 games, Bumgarner has seen a +$2,200 Salary Change since his last outing. Even when he faced Atlanta two weeks ago he didn’t have a $13,800 price tag.
Despite the abrupt change in pricing, however, Bumgarner’s chances of meeting his salary-based expectations are good. Historically, 58 pitchers have had double-digit Pro Trends and salaries higher than $13,000 on DraftKings. As a cohort, they have an average +7.61 Plus/Minus. And it helps Bumgarner’s case all the more that the Brewers are projected with .296 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB) and are implied to score 0.8 fewer runs than any other offense.
Plus/Minus, Salary Change, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Of course, Bumgarner’s salary leaves little room for flexibility elsewhere. Fortunately, there are enough cheaper options that you should be able to squeeze in a viable partner-in-crime as your No. 2 pitcher on DraftKings.
David Price
Despite having 60-percent Consistency in the past month, Price still has a salary that is cheap enough at DraftKings for him to have a 72-percent Bargain Rating. The Orioles aren’t the easiest matchup in this slate, but their whopping average of .300 SO/AB makes things easier. Price’s average of 10.07 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) is also the third-highest among pitchers tonight. He has sufficient Upside to make him worth the price (no pun intended). [Editor’s Note: That pun was definitely intended.]
Jake Odorizzi
In his last four games, Odorizzi has a +8.08 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. The Mariners don’t present him with an easy matchup, given their projected .312 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), but they’re currently tied with a bottom-three implied run total tonight.
Julio Teheran
Teheran has averaged 22.9 DraftKings points over his last five games. That average is actually the third-highest in that span among available pitchers, amounting to 3.1 more than Price’s average, 4.4 more than Drew Pomeranz’s, and 3.4 more than Jacob deGrom’s.
Taijuan Walker
What you’re potentially getting with Walker is epitomized by his last two starts, in which he finished with -4.55 and 42.20 DraftKings points . . . within a five-day period. His Dud potential is real, but so is his Upside, as the Rays are projected with .283 SO/AB.
Stacks on Stacks on Stacks
Cheap pitchers exist for reasons other than to be paired with Bumgarner. They also exist to be stacked against, and there are a few formidable stacks in this slate, some of which are already showing significant line movement.
Jorge De La Rosa vs. NYY
Visiting teams at Coors Field already benefit from a +1.59 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. That number increases to +1.65 when, like the Yankees tonight, said team is favored.
See Brian McCann, whose 11 Pro Trends trail only Freddie Freeman’s, Carlos Gonzalez’s, and Jay Bruce’s in tonight’s player pool. Chase Headley is a stronger option among those who are expected to be less-owned, given his 240-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days (per our advanced stats).
Nathan Eovaldi vs. COL
The Rockies are at home, and Eovaldi has still allowed a batted-ball distance 37 feet farther than his yearly average over the last 15 days. He has additionally been exploited for a hard-hit rate 13 percentage points higher in that span.
See Nolan Arenado, who, despite being tied for the most expensive salary at his position, still has a 95-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. Carlos Gonzalez, although more of an obvious option, also has a recent batted-ball distance tied for top-six at his position.
Brandon Finnegan vs. ATL
Despite recording 22.15 DraftKings points against the Cardinals in his last performance, Finnegan is bound to regress sooner rather than later. Just note that his 3.77 ERA still has a -1.17 differential from his 4.94 xFIP. The Braves’ implied total has also already risen 0.3 runs.
See Freddie Freeman, whose recent exit velocity of 96 miles per hour should be able to overcome a -0.043 ISO Differential against left-handed pitching.
Jordan Zimmerman vs. CWS
Zimmerman has recorded a -6.44 Plus/Minus at DraftKings over his last six games, failing to meet salary-based expectations in every start over that span.
See Jose Abreu, who has recorded a +3.99 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last 10 games and is slugging .500.
Chris Young vs. CLE
Young has allowed 2.41 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year, which are 0.43 more than anyone else at his position. It doesn’t help matters that Cleveland’s projected .355 wOBA is also the highest in this slate. Additionally, Young has recently allowed a batted-ball distance 23 feet farther than any other pitcher.
See Carlos Santana, whose 95-MPH exit velocity is tied with Joey Votto’s and Chris Davis’ in the last 15 days. Also note that Tyler Naquin leads all outfielders in batted-ball distance in that span.
Erik Surkamp vs. TEX
I’ll let his recent performance do the talking:
See Ian Desmond, who’s slugging .545 versus left-handed pitching. He has also recorded a 59-percent Consistency at DraftKings over the last month.
Josh Tomlin vs. KC
Tomlin has allowed 1.74 HR/9 in the past year, which would likely be the most in any other slate. Also, the Royals’ projected .333 wOBA is second-highest tonight.
See Salvador Perez, who not only has a .110 wOBA Differential tonight but also has averaged a 254-foot batted-ball distance over the last 15 days.
Good luck!
