FantasyLabs is a data company. With our free Trends tool and Player Models, you can leverage our advanced statistics and premium exclusive metrics to identify players to use in your daily fantasy sports lineups.
Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
After a nice break from Coors Field last night, we’re right back into it in tonight’s Main slate. The Vegas total of the Rockies-Yankees game is 11.5, a whopping 2.5 runs more than the total for any other game. As usual, Coors dominates the slate. However, there are still interesting plays and nice pivot options based on the data.
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .473, Ryan Braun
Braun has the highest wOBA in the slate: He typically crushes lefties, as shown by his absurd .473 mark. However, he is going against ace Madison Bumgarner and his 1.010 WHIP. Look no further than the Brewers’ implied total of 2.7 runs tonight. Braun is a tournament-only option.
Isolated Power (ISO): .373, David Ortiz
Ortiz will probably be able to crush right-handed pitchers into his late 70s. He is an interesting contrarian pivot off the Coors batters today: His salary rivals theirs at $5,300 on DraftKings — a lowly nine percent Bargain Rating — and he has a low Park Factor Rating of 39. However, Ortiz has shown that a bad park doesn’t bother him.
Park Factor: 100, All Coors Field Batters
Coors Field, due to the altitude in Denver, is simply a hitter’s paradise, no matter on which side of the plate you stand. Take all hitters, even if they are in the bottom half of the batting order.
Distance Differential (Ft.): +59, David Peralta
To be transparent, Tyler Naquin actually leads in this category, but he was written up in this section yesterday. Instead, we’ll pivot to Peralta, projected to bat fourth for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Facing a righty at Chase Field is a good situation for Peralta, even if that righty is Kenta Maeda. When you factor in his increased batted-ball distance — a huge 59-foot difference — Peralta is a nice contrarian option outside of Coors Field.
Hard-Hit Differential (%): +30, Salvador Perez
Perez has a hard-hit rate of 60 percent in the last 15 days, which is 30 percentage points higher than his yearly average. That is so high that I had to double-check that it was correct when I first saw it. Unsurprisingly, he has seen a 10-point increase in his Upside rate in the last month. Perez is averaging two hits per game over his last five starts. At $3,400 on DraftKings, he is a value play tonight.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Trevor Story
Story is $5,000 on DraftKings, just $600 less than the highest-priced batters, Nolan Arenado and Matt Carpenter. On FanDuel, he is $3,400, or $1,300 less than the highest-priced batter in Mookie Betts. This is the reason for his high FanDuel Bargain Rating. Oh yeah, and he’s playing in Coors Field and has an ISO of .295 versus right-handed pitching.
Pitchers
Mad Max certainly came through last night, and we have a similarly dominant play tonight in . . .
K Prediction (SO): 9.7, Madison Bumgarner
An ace like Bumgarner with a K Prediction of 9.7 pitching in a park with a Park Factor Rating of 100 for pitchers . . . that seems like a decent situation. Bumgarner performs better at home, as shown by his +4.76 Plus/Minus there, but let’s be real: MadBum is a stud anywhere. Not only does he have the slate’s highest projected strikeout total, but he also boasts the second-highest moneyline, behind only . . .
Moneyline (ML): -300, Marcus Stroman
Stroman and the Blue Jays have moved to a ridiculous -300 moneyline for tonight’s game against the lowly Philadelphia Phillies. Stroman doesn’t have the strikeout potential of other pitchers — his K Prediction is only 4.9 — but at only $5,900 at DraftKings and $7,400 at FanDuel he doesn’t need to strike out many batters. As a bonus, he gets Bill Miller behind the plate, who has historically gifted pitchers a +2.1 Plus/Minus.
Plus/Minus, Upside, Bargain Rating, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +1.1, Chris Young
Young has seen a bump in fastball velocity lately, but he simply doesn’t pitch enough innings to be worthy of consideration in DFS contests. He had a random six-inning, 10-strikeout gem against the Orioles in April, but he hasn’t been past five innings anytime since. There is slight strikeout potential here and he’s cheap, but on a 14-game Main slate you don’t need to dip to this level.
Bargain Rating (%): 96 (DK), Nathan Eovaldi
Turn back! We never want to roster a pitcher facing the Rockies at Coors Field unless we intend to use him as the most contrarian of tournament plays. Eovaldi doesn’t have a whole lot in his favor tonight: He boasts a mediocre WHIP, sports a less-than-stellar K/9, and is projected to let up 5.5 runs. Stay away from pitchers in Coors.
Bonus
Pro Trends: 12 (FD), Carlos Gonzalez
CarGo has elite Upside in any slate. Just about a week ago he hit two home runs in a pitcher’s park in San Diego. If he’s capable of that 47.9-point DK outing in that situation, he is certainly worth rostering at Coors Field with its 100 Park Factor Rating and a dozen Pro Trends at his disposal. Of course, he is expensive and will be highly owned. If you roster him in tournaments, you’ll need to differentiate your lineup elsewhere.
