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MLB DFS Slate Breakdown: Monday 6/13

Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Mad Max

Only twice this season have the Cubs been implied to score fewer than 3.4 runs, and both performances resulted in outcomes on opposite ends of the spectrum. The first came on the road against Gerrit Cole, in which he finished with a -11.36 Plus/Minus at DraftKings, and the other saw Madison Bumgarner mow through Chicago’s lineup for a total of 29.65 DraftKings points. The Cubs’ implied total of 3.3 runs tonight is tied for their lowest of the year. And, although I can’t attest to this, it’s likely that they haven’t been projected with the lowest runs of any slate until now, either.

With Chicago’s offense being top-three in both runs per game and runs scored, fading Max Scherzer might be your initial thought. However, the Cubs are quietly projected with .272 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). Their projected .279 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is also bottom-two tonight, leading Cincinnati’s by only .008. Plus, you’re not going to fade Scherzer just to fade him. As Billy Beane once so elegantly put it: “Hope is not a strategy.” And with only 20 available pitchers in this slate to begin with, there are few pitchers with the potential to match Scherzer’s Upside. You wouldn’t request a trial by combat if either The Mountain or The Hound weren’t your ally, and you certainly wouldn’t pass on Scherzer if there were no comparable options.

But, just for the fun of it, let’s discuss the pitchers you’d consider as potentially viable substitutes for Scherzer if you were actually asinine enough to pivot away from him.

Zach Greinke

Greinke is probably the first non-Scherzer hurler who comes to mind, if only because he has averaged as many DraftKings points as Scherzer (26.8) over the last month. Also, the Dodgers’ projected .270 SO/AB is at least comparable to Chicago’s. But, unlike the Cubs, the Dodgers have a projected wOBA tonight well over .300. And their total has only risen despite receiving 27 percent of moneyline bets this evening.

This being a shorter slate, there’s at least some merit to rostering Greinke, since he has allowed the lowest batted-ball distance of any pitcher tonight in the past 15 days. But note that he has yet to record a single outing of any Upside at FanDuel (where you can roster only one pitcher), whereas Scherzer has achieved such status in eight percent of his performances. Additionally, Scherzer has allowed a hard-hit rate nine percentage points lower than his yearly average in the past two weeks.

Kyle Hendricks

Rostering Hendricks tonight is a strategy similar to stacking opposing offenses at Coors Field: One side is so highly touted that the other side, although comparable, is overlooked. For instance, the Nationals’ implied total has sunk 0.2 runs since initially opening. Hendricks’ 16-percent Upside at DraftKings is also higher than both Scherzer’s and Greinke’s this season. Hendricks has allowed a batted-ball distance 11 feet shorter than his yearly average in the past 15 days. All that, despite receiving a majority of moneyline bets in this matchup.

Carlos Carrasco

Since returning from injury, Carrasco has failed to meet salary-based expectations by -14.82 points on FanDuel, where has has a 91-percent Bargain Rating. So he’s cheap — but maybe deservedly so. Still, he has recently induced a 63-percent ground ball rate, and has averaged 10.33 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9). He has recorded performances this season that even Scherzer would approve of — 33 DraftKings points in Tampa, 22.05 against the Mariners — but, given the Royals’ projected .236 SO/AB, Carrasco is likely more of an accomplice (say, the second pitcher at DraftKings) than protagonist tonight.

Matt Cain

When our Vegas dashboard grades an offense with the lowest Team Value Rating of the night, I listen. Tonight, Matt Cain (returning from an injury) is facing said offense. He’s averaging only 6.34 SO/9, but Milwaukee’s projected .299 SO/AB should boost his total. Also, in the three starts prior to his injury,  Cain had exceeded salary-based expectations by +8.30 points at DraftKings. Of course, in the five games prior to those three games, he recorded a -10.22 Plus/Minus. He has only a 28-percent Consistency at DraftKings on the year, but his 100 Park Factor already puts him in a better spot than most.

Still, averaging only 14.1 DraftKings points in the last month, Cain has little chance of matching either Greinke or Scherzer. The Brewers will also likely stack two left-handers at the top of their order (Jonathan Villar and Scooter Gennett), which could be detrimental, given the winds blowing out to right field at 15 miles per hour. Cain, of course, has allowed 1.60 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the past year.

Aaron Blair and Jered Weaver

Blair is not a viable substitute, if only for his production (or lack thereof) over the last 10 games:

 

 

 

Neither is Weaver, since soft-tossing pitchers (read: those who average velocities lower than 84 MPH) have historically produced a -0.91 Plus/Minus at DraftKings against Minnesota.

Home of the Braves

The Blue Jays are the only offense implied to score at least five runs tonight, but that’s nothing out of the ordinary. This season alone, they’ve had 16 instances in which they’ve been projected at or above that number. But how often can we claim the Braves to have been implied at 4.6? Never, actually. Not this season, anyway. The highest they’ve been implied at is 4.3. In fact, Atlanta has been implied to score fewer than three runs on nine more occasions than they’ve been projected to score over four.

At this time, five offenses are implied to score more runs than the Braves, but only two (Tigers-White Sox) are involved in a matchup with a higher total. Only the Blue Jays, White Sox, and Angels have a higher Team Value Rating than Atlanta, too. I don’t think that calls for an all-out Braves stack (although that is about as contrarian as one can get), but Daniel Wright’s recent 244-foot batted-ball distance allowed warrants some exposure against him.

Take, for instance, Freddie Freeman’s 12 Pro Trends tonight. Not only is that the most among first basemen, but it’s more than anyone in tonight’s player pool. He has also averaged a 266-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, which is only one foot shorter than Chris Carter’s average in that span. There’s also Ender Inciarte, who has a .114 wOBA Differential versus right-handed pitching. And let’s not forget about Mallex Smith, who’s quietly slugging .531 against said handedness. At the least, none of them will carry the same ownership that nearly all Toronto hitters will have tonight.

And in the event that you’re looking to fade what will likely be the most popular stack entirely, here are some more hitters who have absolutely nothing to do with Toronto (unless they’re from there):

Carlos Santana

Santana has a higher Plus/Minus at DraftKings when hitting fifth (+0.64) than when leading off (+0.09). He’s expected to hit fifth today.

Todd Frazier

Frazier has a .156 ISO Differential versus left-handed pitching, which is .068 higher than the next third basemen in this slate.

Dioner Navarro 

Navarro has an 86-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel and he slugs .500 against left-handed pitching. His recent 86-MPH exit velocity leaves a lot to be desired, but his .241 ISO is the highest among catchers.

Jay Bruce

Blessed to be facing Aaron Blair (who is averaging -0.1 DraftKings points over the past month), Bruce has averaged a 255-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days.

Ian Desmond

Desmond’s batted-ball distance in the past 15 days might be 10 feet shorter than Bruce’s, but their exit velocity in that span is the same. Desmond’s .398 wOBA and .551 slugging percentage are also top-10 among outfielders tonight.

Narrative Street

Most shrugged at the sight of James Shields’ -11.5 DraftKings points in his debut with Chicago, chalking the performance up to ‘jitters.’ But if that is the case, his nerves of steel must have also been absent when he scored -19.20 the start prior. As it pertains to tonight, only R.A. Dickey and Jerad Eickhoff have a lower Park Factor than Shields does.

This season, two pitchers (Derek Holland and Robbie Ray), much like Shields, have seen their salaries dip $3,400 in the course of one month, and the ensuing results were a +3.90 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. But neither has allowed as many HR/9 as Shields, who has been rocked for 1.44 over the last year. He has also received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets among pitchers tonight.

Also in a terrible spot is Sean Manaea — that is, if the Athletics remain dogs. Pitchers facing the Rangers have recorded a -5.26 Plus/Minus at DraftKings when Texas has been favored this season.

Good luck!

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Let’s do this. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)

Mad Max

Only twice this season have the Cubs been implied to score fewer than 3.4 runs, and both performances resulted in outcomes on opposite ends of the spectrum. The first came on the road against Gerrit Cole, in which he finished with a -11.36 Plus/Minus at DraftKings, and the other saw Madison Bumgarner mow through Chicago’s lineup for a total of 29.65 DraftKings points. The Cubs’ implied total of 3.3 runs tonight is tied for their lowest of the year. And, although I can’t attest to this, it’s likely that they haven’t been projected with the lowest runs of any slate until now, either.

With Chicago’s offense being top-three in both runs per game and runs scored, fading Max Scherzer might be your initial thought. However, the Cubs are quietly projected with .272 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB). Their projected .279 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) is also bottom-two tonight, leading Cincinnati’s by only .008. Plus, you’re not going to fade Scherzer just to fade him. As Billy Beane once so elegantly put it: “Hope is not a strategy.” And with only 20 available pitchers in this slate to begin with, there are few pitchers with the potential to match Scherzer’s Upside. You wouldn’t request a trial by combat if either The Mountain or The Hound weren’t your ally, and you certainly wouldn’t pass on Scherzer if there were no comparable options.

But, just for the fun of it, let’s discuss the pitchers you’d consider as potentially viable substitutes for Scherzer if you were actually asinine enough to pivot away from him.

Zach Greinke

Greinke is probably the first non-Scherzer hurler who comes to mind, if only because he has averaged as many DraftKings points as Scherzer (26.8) over the last month. Also, the Dodgers’ projected .270 SO/AB is at least comparable to Chicago’s. But, unlike the Cubs, the Dodgers have a projected wOBA tonight well over .300. And their total has only risen despite receiving 27 percent of moneyline bets this evening.

This being a shorter slate, there’s at least some merit to rostering Greinke, since he has allowed the lowest batted-ball distance of any pitcher tonight in the past 15 days. But note that he has yet to record a single outing of any Upside at FanDuel (where you can roster only one pitcher), whereas Scherzer has achieved such status in eight percent of his performances. Additionally, Scherzer has allowed a hard-hit rate nine percentage points lower than his yearly average in the past two weeks.

Kyle Hendricks

Rostering Hendricks tonight is a strategy similar to stacking opposing offenses at Coors Field: One side is so highly touted that the other side, although comparable, is overlooked. For instance, the Nationals’ implied total has sunk 0.2 runs since initially opening. Hendricks’ 16-percent Upside at DraftKings is also higher than both Scherzer’s and Greinke’s this season. Hendricks has allowed a batted-ball distance 11 feet shorter than his yearly average in the past 15 days. All that, despite receiving a majority of moneyline bets in this matchup.

Carlos Carrasco

Since returning from injury, Carrasco has failed to meet salary-based expectations by -14.82 points on FanDuel, where has has a 91-percent Bargain Rating. So he’s cheap — but maybe deservedly so. Still, he has recently induced a 63-percent ground ball rate, and has averaged 10.33 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9). He has recorded performances this season that even Scherzer would approve of — 33 DraftKings points in Tampa, 22.05 against the Mariners — but, given the Royals’ projected .236 SO/AB, Carrasco is likely more of an accomplice (say, the second pitcher at DraftKings) than protagonist tonight.

Matt Cain

When our Vegas dashboard grades an offense with the lowest Team Value Rating of the night, I listen. Tonight, Matt Cain (returning from an injury) is facing said offense. He’s averaging only 6.34 SO/9, but Milwaukee’s projected .299 SO/AB should boost his total. Also, in the three starts prior to his injury,  Cain had exceeded salary-based expectations by +8.30 points at DraftKings. Of course, in the five games prior to those three games, he recorded a -10.22 Plus/Minus. He has only a 28-percent Consistency at DraftKings on the year, but his 100 Park Factor already puts him in a better spot than most.

Still, averaging only 14.1 DraftKings points in the last month, Cain has little chance of matching either Greinke or Scherzer. The Brewers will also likely stack two left-handers at the top of their order (Jonathan Villar and Scooter Gennett), which could be detrimental, given the winds blowing out to right field at 15 miles per hour. Cain, of course, has allowed 1.60 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) over the past year.

Aaron Blair and Jered Weaver

Blair is not a viable substitute, if only for his production (or lack thereof) over the last 10 games:

 

 

 

Neither is Weaver, since soft-tossing pitchers (read: those who average velocities lower than 84 MPH) have historically produced a -0.91 Plus/Minus at DraftKings against Minnesota.

Home of the Braves

The Blue Jays are the only offense implied to score at least five runs tonight, but that’s nothing out of the ordinary. This season alone, they’ve had 16 instances in which they’ve been projected at or above that number. But how often can we claim the Braves to have been implied at 4.6? Never, actually. Not this season, anyway. The highest they’ve been implied at is 4.3. In fact, Atlanta has been implied to score fewer than three runs on nine more occasions than they’ve been projected to score over four.

At this time, five offenses are implied to score more runs than the Braves, but only two (Tigers-White Sox) are involved in a matchup with a higher total. Only the Blue Jays, White Sox, and Angels have a higher Team Value Rating than Atlanta, too. I don’t think that calls for an all-out Braves stack (although that is about as contrarian as one can get), but Daniel Wright’s recent 244-foot batted-ball distance allowed warrants some exposure against him.

Take, for instance, Freddie Freeman’s 12 Pro Trends tonight. Not only is that the most among first basemen, but it’s more than anyone in tonight’s player pool. He has also averaged a 266-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, which is only one foot shorter than Chris Carter’s average in that span. There’s also Ender Inciarte, who has a .114 wOBA Differential versus right-handed pitching. And let’s not forget about Mallex Smith, who’s quietly slugging .531 against said handedness. At the least, none of them will carry the same ownership that nearly all Toronto hitters will have tonight.

And in the event that you’re looking to fade what will likely be the most popular stack entirely, here are some more hitters who have absolutely nothing to do with Toronto (unless they’re from there):

Carlos Santana

Santana has a higher Plus/Minus at DraftKings when hitting fifth (+0.64) than when leading off (+0.09). He’s expected to hit fifth today.

Todd Frazier

Frazier has a .156 ISO Differential versus left-handed pitching, which is .068 higher than the next third basemen in this slate.

Dioner Navarro 

Navarro has an 86-percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel and he slugs .500 against left-handed pitching. His recent 86-MPH exit velocity leaves a lot to be desired, but his .241 ISO is the highest among catchers.

Jay Bruce

Blessed to be facing Aaron Blair (who is averaging -0.1 DraftKings points over the past month), Bruce has averaged a 255-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days.

Ian Desmond

Desmond’s batted-ball distance in the past 15 days might be 10 feet shorter than Bruce’s, but their exit velocity in that span is the same. Desmond’s .398 wOBA and .551 slugging percentage are also top-10 among outfielders tonight.

Narrative Street

Most shrugged at the sight of James Shields’ -11.5 DraftKings points in his debut with Chicago, chalking the performance up to ‘jitters.’ But if that is the case, his nerves of steel must have also been absent when he scored -19.20 the start prior. As it pertains to tonight, only R.A. Dickey and Jerad Eickhoff have a lower Park Factor than Shields does.

This season, two pitchers (Derek Holland and Robbie Ray), much like Shields, have seen their salaries dip $3,400 in the course of one month, and the ensuing results were a +3.90 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. But neither has allowed as many HR/9 as Shields, who has been rocked for 1.44 over the last year. He has also received the lowest percentage of moneyline bets among pitchers tonight.

Also in a terrible spot is Sean Manaea — that is, if the Athletics remain dogs. Pitchers facing the Rangers have recorded a -5.26 Plus/Minus at DraftKings when Texas has been favored this season.

Good luck!

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