The FantasyLabs MLB Player Models house numerous data points to help you construct your MLB DFS rosters.
They house our floor, median, and ceiling projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends tool, stacking tool, and more.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams for cash games or small-field tournaments.
Let’s dive into some MLB plays that stand out in our Player Models for today’s slate.
Bargain Rating Picks
You might be asking: what is Bargain Rating, and why should I care?
Bargain Rating shows how much of a bargain a player is on one DFS site versus others. If a player is significantly cheaper on one site than the other, they will have a favorable Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more affordable and a poor Bargain Rating on the site where they’re more expensive. It’s a straightforward metric, but targeting players at reduced price tags is almost always a strong strategy in DFS.
Bargain Rating strongly correlates with player value, which you can quickly see with our predictive projected Plus/Minus metric.
Seeing how Plus/Minus helps you project how many points a player is expected to score compared to what their salary implies them to score, this is a good company for Bargain Rating.
MLB DFS DraftKings Bargain Value
Dominic Fletcher ($2,200): Outfielder, Chicago White Sox
Look, the numbers have not been strong for Dominic Fletcher so far this season, but the price is right for a bargain value today in Kansas City.
In 28 games with Arizona last season, Fletcher batted .301/.350/.441 with two home runs and 14 RBI. Thus far, he hasn’t lived up to those stats in 2024, with just a lone hit in sixteen plate appearances.
Today could be a get-right game against Brady Singer and the Royals. Singer finished 8-11 with a career-worst 5.52 ERA in 29 starts. He did manage a seven-inning scoreless performance in his first start this season. The model likes both Fletcher and Singer to revert back toward the mean today.
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MLB DFS Ceiling Projection Picks
Pitcher
Spencer Strider ($11,000) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
With a tall price tag today, Spencer Strider is by far the most expensive pitcher on the slate. He also has, by far, the highest ceiling potential.
Strider comes off an incredible 2023 campaign where he led the National League with 20 wins and 281 strikeouts. He allowed an impressive .273 xwOBA and notched a 36.8 K%.
Strider is a big investment on the slate but has shown consistent returns for fantasy owners.
Hitter
Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6,500) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
The 26-year-old Braves superstar has one of the highest ceilings on a nightly basis with his versatility and power. Ronald Acuna Jr. finished in the top five of all National League hitters in both home runs (41) and stolen bases (73).
Through five games this season, Acuna Jr. has five hits, a pair of RBI, and six runs scored. The model likes him to get back toward his ceiling tonight. And that ceiling is sky-high. Last season, he batted .337/.416/.596.
The Braves are expected to produce runs tonight with a high implied run total tonight against Tommy Henry and the Diamondbacks. Henry gave up five earned runs in four innings against the Rockies to start the season. Expect a lot of ownership on the Braves bats tonight.
Judge and the Yankees have a good shot at living up to their high expectations in the desert today.
More DraftKings MLB DFS Hitters and Pitchers
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
A new addition to our MLB projections is THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters standing out with this blend.
MLB DFS Pitcher
Aaron Nola ($9,000) at Washington Nationals
With a salary drop of $900 in the first week of the season, Aaron Nola is a strong value play today in Washington.
Nola gave up 12 hits and seven runs in his first start of the season to create an interesting buy-low opportunity for fantasy players. Last season, Nola finished 12-9 with a 4.46 ERA. He managed a 25.5% strikeout rate with a .298 wOBA and 38.5 hard hit %.
The Nationals lineup has a high 24.4% strikeout rate, but they have scored at least four runs in every game this season. The potential is there for Nola to get back on track with a strong performance, but fantasy owners will need to trust the Nationals bats will hit a bit of a lull tonight.
Now in beta testing: our MLB DFS SimLabs Lineup Generator that creates advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation.
MLB DFS Hitters
Jonathan India ($4,500) vs. New York Mets
The Reds’ second baseman is off to a hot start in 2024 with a .449 wOBA through the first six games. His power numbers have never been eye-popping, but Jonathan India provides some upside with extra-base hit potential on the base paths. He has a double and triple already on the year.
The model likes India to continue his impressive start today against Mets left-hander Jose Quintana. The veteran Quintana allowed two earned runs in 4.2 innings in his first start of the season. He has a career 3.86 ERA and 1.71 WHIP.
Yordan Alvarez ($5,700) at Texas Rangers
Yordan Alvarez showed his fantasy potential yesterday with a 38-point DraftKings performance. He notched four hits and two long bombs in the last game of the series against the Blue Jays.
He showed last season that yesterday’s boom game was no fluke. In 2023, Alvarez finished in the top 5% of hitters in xwOBA and xSLG. Those stat indicators resulted in a mammoth .293/.407/.583 hitting line with 31 home runs and 97 RBI.
The Astros take on 26-year-old Cody Bradford in Texas tonight. Bradford is 5-3 in his short major league career with a 5.16 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He gave up two runs in five innings in his first start this season.
