Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Joe Ross, WSH
Ross’ average of 7.91 strikeouts per nine innings (SO/9) admittedly isn’t the highest, but the Phillies’ projected .256 SO/AB should help in that regard. Their 43 Team Value Rating today is also the lowest of any offense. With Philadelphia implied to score only 3.1 runs, Ross’ -260 moneyline today, which has already been backed by 74 percent of bets, outweighs the fact that he has allowed an average batted-ball distance 20 feet farther than his yearly average recently.
Steven Matz, NYM
Even bettors think that Matz is the perfect storm today, as he’s currently received the highest percentage of moneyline bets among pitchers. That makes sense given his 177-foot batted-ball distance allowed in the last two weeks. The Brewers’ implied total has also plummeted 0.6 runs since initially opening. And assuming Miller Park opts to keep their roof open, hitters will also be forced to battle against the double-digit winds blowing in towards home plate. The fact that Milwaukee is projected with a whopping .279 SO/AB only solidifies Matz as an option in every format.
Jon Lester, CHC
Lester, who costs $13,400 at DraftKings, is the only pitcher priced over $11,000 today. Still, it stands to reason that he’s worth it given the matchup. The Braves are projected with only .211 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), but their overall Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) and Isolated Power (ISO) against left-handed pitching remains the lowest in the majors. He’s also recorded a +15.95 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last three starts.
Plus/Minus, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
C
Welington Castillo, ARI
Castillo won’t have near the ownership that Nick Hundley/Dustin Garneau and Derek Norris will likely have, despite being the only catcher slugging over .600 today. He’s also the only catcher with a wOBA greater than .400. It helps that Adam Conley has allowed a 232-foot batted-ball distance in the last 15 days, a bottom-two mark among pitchers today.
1B
Ryan Zimmerman, WSH
With Wil Myers slated as a popular contrarian pick, it’s likely Zimmerman and his .714 slugging percentage are underowned today. And if that is the case, note that his average of .059 home runs per at-bat against lefties is top-10 among first basemen. His .192 ISO Differential is also third-highest, behind only Rob Refsnyder’s (.232) and Chris Davis’ (.205) at his position.
Mike Napoli, CLE
Joey Votto, Zimmerman, and Napoli all have a 99 percent Bargain Rating at FanDuel. Napoli’s recent batted-ball distance isn’t nearly as far as the others, but he’s averaged 0.7 more FanDuel points than either over the last month. Despite positive differentials across the board against left-handed pitching, Napoli is still more of a tournament option since he’s historically produced a -0.15 Plus/Minus at DraftKings against said handedness.
2B
Adam Rosales, SD
Priced $2,000 at DraftKings, Rosales is more than viable despite his -.061 ISO Differential. In his last six starts, he has produced an equivalent exit velocity to high-priced second basemen such as Robinson Cano and Jose Altuve. His low salary has also allowed him to produce a 50 percent Consistency mark in the last month.
3B
Danny Valencia, OAK
Over his last 10 starts, Valencia has quietly recorded a +5.47 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. That average is even higher at FanDuel (+6.77), where he has a 90 percent Bargain Rating. Either way, it’s a tremendous spot for him seeing as only Evan Longoria and Kris Bryant have produced a farther batted-ball distance in the past 15 days. Valencia’s raw ISO, however, is still .020 higher than either.
SS
Marcus Semien, OAK
Whether it’s his .130 wOBA Differential or .117 ISO Differential, it’s obvious that Semien prospers when facing lefties. Additionally note his .583 slugging percentage against said handedness, which trails only Manny Machado’s (.586) and Taylor Motter’s (.583) among shortstops. His .406 wOBA is also top-five at his position.
OF
Ryan Raburn, COL
Raburn is slugging .583 versus left-handed pitching, but reasons for rostering him go beyond that. After all, the Rockies are yet again implied to score nearly seven runs, and Raburn has recently averaged a batted-ball distance 23 feet farther than his yearly average. All of Colorado’s outfielders will be popular choices, but note that Raburn is still their only player with double-digit Pro Trends today.
Jay Bruce, CIN
Bruce’s 96-MPH exit velocity makes him an elite option at DraftKings. But that outlook is only intensified at FanDuel, where he has a 99 percent Bargain Rating. He’s also tied for having the most Pro Trends at his position across sites. With a 256-foot batted-ball distance of late, he’s considered one of the more viable options to pay for if fading (or even alongside) Rockies and other expensive players at his position.
Jayson Werth, WSH
Not only is Werth’s .677 slugging percentage top-three at his position, he also has a whopping .229 ISO Differential against southpaws. Further, Adam Morgan has mustered an average of only 2.8 DraftKings points over the past month. With Werth recently recording a hard-hit rate 14 percent higher than his yearly average, his .375 ISO today is certainly worth owning.
Weather Watch
Thunderstorms could interrupt the beginning of Padres-Rockies, but the weather is supposed to clear immediately after. If stacking that game (and you likely are), continue as planned.
Good luck!
