NBA

NBA DFS (Friday, April. 5): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings

By Alex Hunter @Hunta512
Apr 5, 2024

Friday presents a massive 10-game slate on DraftKings. The NBA Player Models are the base of our NBA product here at FantasyLabs. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.

Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the best projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.

Note: Projections, Ownership projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.

NBA DFS Point Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Tyrese Haliburton vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $9,400 DraftKings

Sitting only a half-game ahead of the Heat for the No.6 seed in the East, every game is important for the Pacers right now, as securing the No.6 seed means avoiding the Play-In tournament. Haliburton has been on a roll, producing 52.3 DraftKings PPG in his last three, and Indiana carries the highest implied team total on the slate tonight, with the Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-less Thunder in town, who have dropped back-to-back games without the MVP candidate. Oklahoma City has ranked 27th in defensive rating over these last two, and even with Gilgeous-Alexander available, Haliburton lit the Thunder up for 49.5 DraftKings points when these two teams met last month.

The All-Star is a strong spend at this price point and will become an even better investment if Myles Turner (questionable, finger) sits. Bennedict Mathurin (shoulder) is out, and with he and Turner off the court this season, Haliburton’s usage has increased by 3.6 percentage points, via the On/Off Tool.

Top Value: Jordan Goodwin vs. Detroit Pistons – $4,300 DraftKings

Goodwin has been exceptional off the bench for the depleted Grizzlies, scoring 35.8 DraftKings PPG in his last three, and his role should grow to new heights tonight. Jaren Jackson Jr. (quad) and Luke Kennard (knee) have both available for the last three games, but Jackson has been ruled out for tonight, while Kennard is doubtful. With these two players off the floor this season, Goodwin has supplied 1.1 DraftKings PPM, thanks to his usage rising 5.1 percentage points to 23.8%.

With FantasyLabs projecting the veteran for 36 minutes tonight in this great matchup vs. the Pistons – who rank 27^th in defensive efficiency this season – Goodwin should destroy this low salary and is a must-play.

Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:

NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks

Top Ceiling: Jordan Poole vs. Portland Trail Blazers – $7,400 DraftKings

It should be a Poole party in Washington tonight. The tanking Blazers are in town – who rank 26th in defensive rating over their last 10 – and the Wizards will be missing Kyle Kuzma (ankle) and Tyus Jones (back). With these two starters off the court this season, Poole’s usage has leaped 7.7 percentage points to 34.3%, and his assist percentage has skyrocketed 13.5 percentage points to 33.9%, resulting in 1.24 DraftKings PPM for the guard.

Poole has scored over 40 DraftKings PPM in three straight and should absolutely continue this streak Friday.

Top Value: Cason Wallace at Indiana Pacers – $4,400 DraftKings

After coming off the bench in the first of these last two without Gilgeous-Alexander, Wallace moved into the starting lineup Wednesday vs. the Celtics and was a bright spot in the loss, posting 28.75 DraftKings points across 28.2 minutes. The rookie showed off his defensive abilities against this league-best Boston team, racking up four steals and one block. Wallace finds himself in a much friendlier matchup tonight, facing the Pacers – who rank second in pace and 24th in defensive efficiency – and if the guard remains a starter, he will be a great punt to attack.

Listed as doubtful, Jalen Williams (ankle) is also expected to miss his third in a row, and with both he and Gilgeous-Alexander off the court this season, Wallace is providing 0.94 DraftKings PPM, which is attributed to his usage jumping a team-high 8.7 percentage points, via the On/Off Tool.

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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Pascal Siakam vs. Oklahoma City Thunder – $8,200 DraftKings

Siakam is a viable option either way, but the forward will become a tremendous option if Turner misses his second straight. With the center absent Wednesday vs. the Nets, Siakam finished with 42.75 DraftKings points and was one rebound shy of a double-double. Since joining the Pacers at the trade deadline, Siakam has led the team with a 30.4% usage rate with both Turner and Mathurin off the floor, which is a 4.0 percentage point lift from his average.

Siakam provides 1.4 DraftKings PPM with this expanded usage rate, and this is an excellent matchup vs. the understaffed Thunder, who have ranked 27th in defensive rating in these last two sans Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams.

Top Value: GG Jackson vs. Detroit Pistons – $6,000 DraftKings

Jackson finished with 33 DraftKings points in Wednesday’s upset over the Bucks and should have an even better showing tonight vs. the lowly Pistons. After both being available vs. Milwaukee, Jackson Jr. and Kennard are expected to join the Grizzlies’ lengthy inactive list tonight, and with these two players off the court this season, Jackson’s usage has risen 3.5 percentage points to a team-high 27.1%, and he has contributed 1.0 DraftKings PPM.

Jackson’s current Vegas props are very encouraging, set at 20.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 2.5 assists on the DraftKings Sportsbook, which would be 31 DraftKings points before defensive stats and bonuses. The rookie is vastly underpriced for his expected role tonight and is an excellent target for all formats.

NBA DFS Power Forward Picks

Top Ceiling: Paolo Banchero at Charlotte Hornets – $8,500 DraftKings

The Magic still have a chance to finish as either the third or second seed in the East and this is a juicy spot, with the Hornets ranking second-to-last in defensive efficiency this season. Banchero leads the Magic with a 28.9% usage rate this season and is coming off a 47 DraftKings point performance vs. the Pelicans on Wednesday, who rank seventh in defensive efficiency for the season.

The forward has been slightly more productive on the road this season and never seems to be a common name in GPPs, which should be the case tonight, with 10 games on the schedule. For a smaller eight-game slate Wednesday, Banchero was less than 1% owned in DraftKings’ main GPP of the night, via the Contest Dashboard.

Top Value: Jabari Walker at Washington Wizards – $5,500 DraftKings

Walker is an elite value play tonight. As the Blazers’ starting power forward, Walker has thrived, collecting 43.1 DraftKings PPG in his last two. With this starting role, the 21-year-old has logged over 40 minutes in each of these past two contests. Coming off a win over the Hornets and with Portland clearly looking to develop their young core with the season coming to a close, Walker should continue to see a huge role tonight, and this is the perfect spot for his impressive play to continue.

Not only does Washington rank second in pace and 28th in defensive efficiency, they are giving up the most rebounds and second most points in the paint this season. There is no better spot in the league for a big man and Walker is a legitimate threat for over 50 DraftKings points.

NBA DFS Center Picks

Top Ceiling: Victor Wembanyama at New Orleans Pelicans – $11,000 DraftKings

While this is a less-than-ideal spot, with the Pelicans ranking seventh in defensive efficiency, Wembanyama is a player you need to have exposure to tonight. The rookie has been matchup-proof recently, scoring 83 DraftKings points vs. the Knicks, 63.75 DraftKings points vs. the Warriors, and 75.25 DraftKings points vs. the Nuggets, in that order. When we compare the league’s last 10 games, all three of these teams rank top-12 in defensive rating. New Orleans ranks 12th in defensive rating during this time and should have trouble slowing down Wembayama, especially with Devin Vassell (head) and Jeremy Sochan (ankle) both sidelined.

With these two starters off the floor, Wembanyama’s usage has risen 2.1 percentage points to 34.6%, and he has produced a whopping 1.8 DraftKings PPM.

Top Value: Trey Jemison vs. Detroit Pistons – $3,200 DraftKings

Last but not least, when it comes to value plays from the shorthanded Grizzlies, Jemison is an outstanding punt at this near-minimum salary. In addition to Jackson being inactive, Brandon Clarke (Achilles) is out as well, leaving Jemison as Memphis’ starting center for this awesome matchup vs. the Pistons. In the last two games, both Jackson and Clarke have missed; Jemison has supplied 30.8 DraftKings points in 31.3 minutes per game as the Grizzlies’ starting center.

Detroit is allowing the fourth most points in the paint this season, and Jemison has the potential to reach 10x value in this terrific situation. In our NBA models, the center is the No.1 value on the slate.

Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.