In every MLB Plays of the Day post, several FantasyLabs writers use our FREE Trends tool and Player Models to highlight each one player to roster heavily in cash games and/or tournaments for the day’s slates.
Here are today’s plays of the day.
The Play of the Daigle
Who is John Daigle? Ron Swanson’s spirit animal.
John Daigle: Stephen Strasburg, WSH, SP
Despite having a -245 moneyline tonight, Strasburg has still received 90 percent of this matchup’s bets in Vegas. Per our advanced stats, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 226 feet in the past two weeks, but it clearly hasn’t effected his results, as only Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto have averaged more points over the last month.
The Phillies’ implied total has also already sunk 0.2 runs, so everything is certainly trending in Strasburg’s direction. Seeing as how Philadelphia is projected with .256 strikeouts per at-bat, Strasburg has a good chance to get a number of strikeouts, given his slate-high nine K Prediction. On top of that, on FanDuel, where he has a strong 92-percent Bargain Rating, Strasburg has a good chance of getting the 12-point bonus for the win.
Also, be sure to check out John’s Slate Breakdown for additional analysis.
The Remaining Plays of the Day
Here are all the plays recommended by people whose surnames don’t rhyme with “bagel.”
Bryan Mears: David Ortiz, BOS, 1B
An interesting tournament strategy for Coors Field slates is simply to take very high-priced batters who aren’t playing at Coors. The Rockies-Padres game has a current total of 12 runs, with the Rockies implied for seven of those. A lot of people are going to find it hard to fade that game.
On DraftKings, Ortiz (along with his teammate Mookie Betts) is priced at $5,500, trailing only Nolan Arenado ($5,600). Why would anyone pay up for the second-most expensive batter in the slate, when there are a lot of Rockies batters, such as Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon, and Trevor Story, A) available for less money and B) implied to score almost two runs more? Contrarianism.
Ortiz’s Upside is still immense, given his .385 ISO versus right-handed pitchers. The RHP he’s facing tonight is Tyler Duffy, who sports a not-great 1.429 WHIP and has given up four home runs in his last two games. Even though Ortiz’s recent hard-hit rate is down from his yearly average by four percentage points, he is still incredibly crushing 43 percent of his batted balls: Other hitters would commit felonies for that type of hard-hit rate.
On top of that, his recent batted-ball distance is 243 feet and his average batted-ball airtime is 3.97 seconds. With 13 Pro Trends, Ortiz has huge potential tonight and will come with a big ownership discount that you won’t get with Coors batters.
Upside, Pro Trends, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Tyler Buecher: DJ LeMahieu, COL, 2B
Everyone will target the Rockies and their slate-high implied total of seven runs. Among the Rockies, second basemen DJ LeMahieu is someone to consider rostering, especially on FanDuel, where he has a moderate salary of $3,300, good for a Bargain Rating of 90 percent.
Although it might be chalky, a Rockies stack tonight makes a lot of sense, as they have a ton of peripheral factors that make them excellent targets. Vegas has already increased the run total by 0.6 runs since the opening line, and we could continue to see that move further throughout the day. Additionally, the moneyline continues to move in the Rockies’ direction and is now up to -183, third-highest on the slate. Add in a Park Factor of 100 and a Weather Factor of 93, and everything is lining up for this . . . lineup.
Batting second in the order, LeMahieu has a position-high exit velocity of 95 miles per hour and the second-highest hard-hit rate at the position with 47 percent. Additionally, his recent batted-ball distance is 29 feet farther than his yearly average. Going against RHP Andrew Cashner, LeMahieu is nearly handedness-agnostic, with incredibly similar statistics against righties and lefties.
The Rockies will undoubtedly be a popular team to target tonight, but if you’re looking for some cheap exposure to the expected fireworks at Coors Field then look no further than LeMahieu.
Matthew Freedman: Clayton Kershaw, LAD, SP
On FanDuel, Kershaw has an 80-percent Bargain Rating and Consistency over the last fantasy month, so if you are going to play Kershaw (and you should) then that’s probably the place to do it, especially because he has a good chance of getting the 12-point victory bonus, given his -160 moneyline.
Plus, there’s this trend, which is actually much better than its +7.75 Plus/Minus indicates. (Look at the ‘Past Results’ tab in the Trends tool to find out why the trend is even better than it seems.)
The trend’s sample of 10 pitchers is miniscule, but how often does a pitcher who A) throws a lot of innings and B) gets a lot of strikeouts have the opportunity to play in one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in MLB? Of course the sample is going to be small, in part because Kershaw is an outlier.
If you don’t mind paying up for a pitcher, he’s a strong FanDuel option in both cash games and tournaments.
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The Plays of the Day series is our answer to the question, “Who do you guys like today?” We publish a Plays of the Day article every weekday for MLB and a Plays of the Week every Wednesday for PGA and Euro Tour.
