This week, we published a lot of content that will be applicable for a while. Within this FantasyLabs Friday Recap, you can find links to all of that content, for your weekend reading pleasure.
General
– The Two Sides of Uncertainty in Daily Fantasy Sports, by Matthew Freedman
Nassim Nicholas Taleb approaches uncertainty like the former Wall Street trader that he is. Nate Silver, however, approaches uncertainty very differently. He views uncertainty from the perspective of a statistician and researcher who has seen the horrible consequences that come from a reckless attitude toward that which is unknown. The ways in which Silver and Taleb theorize and approach uncertainty mirror (accurately and precisely) the ways in which DFS players theorize and approach cash games and tournaments.
– Consistency and Upside Are Not Mutually Exclusive, by Bryan Mears
In general, in cash games you want to find players with high Consistency (or safety). In tournaments, you want players with high Upside. Here’s the thing: Many people assume that these terms are antonymous, and that’s not true. They’re by no means synonymous, but nowhere in the definitions of those terms do we see anything necessitating mutual exclusivity.
– Interpreting Pro Trend Numbers in Player Models, by Bryan Mears
Even research as simple as identifying the number of Pro Trends for a player shouldn’t be taken for granted. As you see above, just because two players have the same number, that doesn’t mean that they’re in identical situations or that they’re equally good plays. That’s why our Player Models have so many columns and sliders: Daily fantasy sports are nuanced and require analysis of a vast amount of variables, Pro Trends included.
NFL
– Video: Prepping for NFL DFS with FantasyLabs Trends
Adam Levitan shows how he uses the FREE NFL Trends tool to get ready for the upcoming 2016 NFL DFS season.
NBA
– Is LeBron James a Bad (DFS) Teammate?, by Matthew Freedman
Basically, it’s conceivable that a player like Jim Kelly (playing football) can lose four championships. It’s not very conceivable that a player like LeBron (playing basketball) can lose four (and maybe five) championships — especially when he had two other superstars with him on four of his Finals trips. Ultimately, I expect that LeBron’s 2-4.5 Finals record isn’t the result of randomness. Given his abilities and stature, he probably isn’t as good for his teams — and teammates — as we’d expect him to be.
Golf
– Video: 2016 FedEx St. Jude Classic Model Preview
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) walks through his personal model for this week’s 2016 St. Jude Classic.
– Video: 2016 Memorial Tournament Lineup Review
Peter Jennings (CSURAM88) breaks down his lineup from the 2016 Memorial Tournament.
– Course History at Specific Courses, by Colin Davy
All courses have their individual tendencies, so it stands to reason that course history might matter more or less at different courses. Maybe on a ball-striker course, understanding how to navigate the fairways is a measure of strategy and eye fit, which might make course history more important there than a bomber’s course, where raw distance is more important than strategy. Do these courses exist? — where course history is more or less important than others? And, if so, can we reliably predict the courses where history will matter more or less?
– Dustin Johnson and Taking the Heavy Favorite, by Bryan Mears
I believe that Dustin Johnson, relative to his Upside of winning this week’s St. Jude Classic, is very mispriced and should be heavily utilized in tournaments. I also believe that the players in the next range of salaries are very mispriced and should probably be faded in tournaments — or at least faded in comparison to their field ownership.
MLB
– MLB DFS Plays of the Day for Friday 6/10
On FanDuel, Kershaw has an 80-percent Bargain Rating and Consistency over the last fantasy month, so if you are going to play Kershaw (and you should) then that’s probably the place to do it, especially because he has a good chance of getting the 12-point victory bonus, given his -160 moneyline. Plus, there’s this trend, which is actually much better than its +7.75 Plus/Minus indicates. (Look at the ‘Past Results’ tab in the Trends tool to find out why the trend is even better than it seems.)
– MLB DFS Plays for the Main Slate of Friday 6/10, by John Daigle
Chris Young has exceeded salary-based expectations by +6.09 points at DraftKings over his last 10 games. In fact, Young has been so productive recently that his ISO Differential against right-handed pitching is now no longer negative. What’s more is that his 14 Pro Trends not only lead all outfielders tonight but also lead every position in the entire slate.
– Kike Hernandez, Opportunity Cost, and ‘Strategy Ownership,’ by Bryan Mears
The Kike strategy could be an interesting contrarian one in tournaments tonight: Although it might carry less expected value than simply ignoring his pricing quirk and filling out a regular lineup, you’re gaining a lot of value by employing a strategy that few DFS players are likely to use. Contrarian plays are, by definition, less optimal than . . . optimal plays. However, contrarianism can become optimal because of the nature of DFS tournaments and strategy ownership.
– Trending Towards a Coors Fade for Friday 6/10, by Kelly McCann
If you’re really looking to be contrarian and obliterate close to half of your opponents in one fell swoop, you could always take a starting pitcher from Coors . . . but today doesn’t look like the day to do that. Pitchers who are similar to Jon Gray and Andrew Cashner in terms of GB/FB ratio and Distance Differential have a negative Plus/Minus of -4.16 in 50 starts at Coors.
– The Daily Fantasy Sports Roundtable #15 – Summer MLB
Matthew Freedman is joined by Adam Pfeifer, John Daigle, and Peter Jennings, who discuss summer MLB: Hot summer — hotter players.
– State of the Stacks, Vol. 7, by Mitchell Block
To say that Evan Longoria’s previous week on the diamond was a successful one is to insult the concept of understatement. If ‘success’ looks like five home runs, nine RBIs, and a .464 batting average over the past seven games, then almost no one has ever been successful in MLB history. Of course, box score production can be misleading at times. Enter our advanced stats. Over the last 15 days, Longoria has been in the 92nd percentile in Distance, Exit Velocity, and Hard Hit Differential Scores.
– MLB Trend Testing: Advanced Pitcher Stats, by Bill Monighetti
This week, I wanted to create a trend that yields positive results while relying ONLY on our advanced stats. There are not many places where you can find this type of advanced data, which means that there are not many DFS players who are likely to be considering this same data. As a result, if something jumps off the page to you when you’re looking at something like exit velocity, batted-ball distance, or airtime, then you can really leverage that information to your advantage.
– MLB Recent Form Report: 6/6/16, by Bill Monighetti
Chris Sale is an interesting pitcher to profile in this series because, while his velocity had been down for several games (per our advanced stats), it hadn’t really affected his surface level stats . . . until recently. After averaging 95.1 miles per hour on his two-seam fastball in his first start of the season, he has generally been around 92.5-93 MPH ever since.
Trends
– MLB 6/6/16: FanDuel Home Run Hitter in Favorable Situations, by Jonathan Cabezas
– MLB 6/7/16: Middle-Of-The-Order Hitters With High Vegas Scores and Pro Trends, by Brandon Hopper
– MLB 6/8/16: Cheap Hitters With High Consistency and Upside, by J.J. Calle
– MLB 6/9/16: Finding Pitcher Value Without Strikeouts, by Bryan Mears
– MLB 6/10/16: Expensive Starters with Low Pro Trends, by J.J. Calle
