Let’s get to it. (And don’t forget to check out our Vegas dashboard for any line movements.)
Pitchers
Stephen Strasburg, WSH
Despite having a -245 moneyline tonight, Strasburg has still received 90 percent of the bets in this matchup. Per our advanced stats, he has allowed a batted-ball distance of 226 feet in the past two weeks, but it clearly hasn’t effected his results, as only Clayton Kershaw and Johnny Cueto have averaged more DraftKings points over the last month. The Phillies’ implied total has also already sunk 0.2 runs, now only 0.1 runs higher than the total for the Giants (Kershaw’s matchup tonight). Seeing as how Philadelphia is projected with .256 strikeouts per at-bat (SO/AB), Strasburg’s 80-percent DraftKings Consistency — eight percentage points higher than Kershaw’s — doesn’t appear to be in jeopardy.
Clayton Kershaw, LAD
Over the last month, Kershaw has averaged 9.7 more DraftKings points than the next pitcher, so it’s not as if he’s being overlooked. In this game, however, his Upside might be comparatively limited, as San Francisco is projected with a SO/AB -0.031 lower than that of the Phillies in this slate. I might lean toward Kershaw at DraftKings, where he now costs only $400 more than Strasburg, who has experienced a massive +$1,600 Salary Change. But at FanDuel, where Kershaw is still $1,100 more expensive than any other pitcher, I would be tempted to look elsewhere.
Consistency, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Lance McCullers, HOU
He has been activated for only five games, but McCullers has produced a +7.07 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last four starts. His 90 Park Factor tonight doesn’t hurt, either. Still, what’s most tantalizing about McCullers is that he has recently limited opponents to a batted-ball distance 33 feet shorter than his yearly average. With his 9.63 SO/9, he should do well against a Rays offense projected with .266 SO/AB.
Matt Harvey, NYM
Half of Harvey’s top-four DraftKings performances this season have come in his last two games, in which he has a +10.06 Plus/Minus. Furthermore, his velocity of 95.4 miles per hour over that time is 0.2 MPH higher than his yearly average. The strikeouts have yet to stack in his favor, but Milwaukee’s projected .274 SO/AB should help that cause.
Pitchers to Exploit
Andrew Cashner, SD
The Rockies opened with an implied total 1.1 runs higher than any other team’s, but their total has still grown an additional 0.5 runs. They’re now threatening to have an implied total of seven runs for the second time this year. It’s bad enough that Cashner has averaged only 8.1 DraftKings points over the last month. That he’ll also be forced to pitch around seven-MPH winds blowing out of the stadium is just cruel.
Bud Norris, ATL
Norris’ last outing against the Dodgers was the first time he had pitched a full five innings in nearly two months. Still, his last six starts have resulted in a -8.31 Plus/Minus at DraftKings. Having allowed 1.68 home runs per nine innings (HR/9) in the past year, Norris is deservedly receiving only seven percent of moneyline bets tonight.
Justin Nicolino, MIA
The Marlins are currently the only team showing reverse line movement — that is, their implied total has plummeted 0.3 runs even though they are receiving a majority of moneyline bets. Concurrently, Arizona’s has risen 0.4. That’s bad news for Nicolino, who has a disturbingly low 3.19 SO/9. It also doesn’t help that he is tied with Hisashi Iwakuma, Hector Santiago, and Junior Guerra for the slate’s highest recent exit velocity allowed at 93 MPH.
C
Wellington Castillo, ARI
Wellington’s .595 slugging percentage against lefties is .040 higher than any other catcher’s tonight. His recent batted-ball distance is admittedly poor, but his .306 Isolated Power (ISO) is still top-two. Additionally, he’s the only catcher that has a Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) greater than .400 in this slate.
James McCann, DET
McCann’s .170 ISO Differential tonight is the highest among starting catchers. His .242 wOBA is also top-five. He has only an 18-percent Consistency in his last 18 games, but he is likely to experience favorable results soon, given that his recent batted-ball distance is 34 feet farther than his yearly average.
1B
Anthony Rizzo, CHC
Rizzo has recorded a 52-percent Dud rate in the last month, but his +1.40 Plus/Minus at DraftKings in his last 10 games at least suggests that he’s improving. Pertaining to tonight, he’s still slugging .511 against right-handed pitching, and Norris is allowing .146 more HR/9 to left-handed batters (than to right-handed batters) this season.
Wil Myers, SD
Whether it’s at DraftKings or FanDuel, Myers is the highest-Rated first basemen in the Bales Model tonight. That’s due in part to his average of 11 DraftKings points in the last month, which trails only David Ortiz’s (12.7) among starting first basemen. Myers’ last 10 games have been quite impressive, as well:
2B
DJ LeMahieu, COL
LaMahieu’s recent peripherals alone make him worth rostering, as over the last 15 days he has a batted-ball distance 29 feet farther than his yearly average. In that span, he has also recorded a hard-hit rate 18 percentage points higher. And in this slate no projected starter has more Pro Trends at his position.
3B
Jung-ho Kang, PIT
Kang has a top-three batted-ball distance at third base, which would ordinarily be enough to roster him with confidence. Tonight, he’s all the more desirable because he’s facing Michael Wacha, who has averaged only 3.8 DraftKings points over the last month. Coincidentally, during that span Kang has produced a 57-percent Consistency, which is the highest among starters at his position.
Jake Lamb, ARI
Nolan Arenado has a higher Rating than Lamb in our Bales Model, but over the last 15 days the latter has actually batted the ball 14 feet farther than the former. Additionally, Lamb’s recent exit velocity is tied with Evan Longoria’s for the highest at the position. Finally, Lamb is tied with Arenado in Pro Trends at FanDuel, but he far surpasses him there on account of his unreal 97-percent Bargain Rating.
SS
Trevor Story, COL
Whether it’s his .308 ISO, .069 home runs per at-bat (HR/AB), or 10 Pro Trends, Story leads nearly every important category among shortstops. And at FanDuel he also has a 99-percent Bargain Rating. Given his 10.7 FanDuel points in the last month, that value is all too good to pass on, especially since he has averaged a 232-foot batted-ball distance in that span.
OF
Chris Young, BOS
Young has exceeded salary-based expectations by +6.09 points at DraftKings over his last 10 games. In fact, Young has been so productive recently that his ISO Differential against right-handed pitching is now no longer negative. What’s more is that his 14 Pro Trends not only lead all outfielders tonight but also lead every position in the entire slate.
Carlos Gonzalez, COL
Although the Rockies will have a high ownership tonight, Gonzalez’s .655 slugging percentage can’t be passed on. His .167 and .160 wOBA and ISO Differentials are also top-10 among outfielders. Over the last 11 days, Charlie Blackmon has actually hit the ball 11 feet farther than Gonzalez has, but the latter’s Plus/Minus at DraftKings in that span remains +0.94 higher.
Franklin Gutierrez, SEA
Assuming that Gutierrez (rather than Seth Smith) starts against a lefty, you’ll be pleased to know that his 95-MPH exit velocity in his last nine starts is tied for top-four among outfielders. With a 70-percent Bargain Rating at DraftKings, Gutierrez has a 63-percent Consistency in that span. And even with a -0.086 ISO Differential against southpaws, Gutierrez has a .567 slugging percentage in the top 12 at his position.
Weather Watch
Red Sox-Twins could be delayed by thunderstorms following the first hour of play, but there’s a greater chance that all inclement weather passes prior to first pitch. If you’re considering Steven Wright or Tyler Duffey, be sure to monitor the situation.
Good luck!
