The MLB Breakdown offers data-driven analysis using the FantasyLabs Tools and predictive metrics to highlight notable players within our MLB Player Models.
Wednesday features a six-game slate starting at 1:05 p.m. ET.
MLB DFS Pitching Picks
MLB DFS Stud Pick
Spencer Strider ($11,300) Atlanta Braves (-342) at Chicago White Sox
The biggest issue for Strider today is the weather, which is fairly threatening. On the other hand, if they do, in fact, play this game, pitching gets a massive boost from the 30-degree temperatures and rain/snow mix.
Other than that, it couldn’t be much better for Strider. The Braves ace is the perfect DFS pitcher, thanks to his massive strikeout upside. His career rate sits at 37.2%. He excels in run-prevention, too, with a 3.37 ERA. He should continue to do both today, with the White Sox having a Vegas total of just 2.9 runs and Strider with the biggest K prediction on the slate by a long shot.
Obviously, the weather makes this a risky play, as his spot in your roster would lock at game time even with a delay — leaving you with no options should the game end up postponed. On the other hand, that should keep his ownership reasonable by his standards.
He’s worth some GPP exposure for that reason, but it’s too big of a risk to play him in cash games.
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MLB DFS Value Pick
Zack Wheeler ($8,800) Philadelphia Phillies (-191) vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wheeler isn’t exactly cheap today, but that doesn’t mean he’s not a value. Outside of Strider, he has the best Vegas data on the board — Cincinnati is implied for just 3.2 runs, and the Phillies are the second-largest favorites in the early window.
While there are some potential weather issues here as well, this game got pushed back to 4:05 p.m. ET, which should mean it’s fairly likely to play as normal. Of course, it’s also cold and windy in Philly, which also helps Wheeler’s chances.
Since joining the Phillies, Wheeler has posted three straight years of at least a 26% strikeout rate and an ERA of under 3.61 in each season. Those are ace numbers at a bargain price. He trails only Strider in median and ceiling projection on today’s slate but at a massive discount.
Wheeler is also second in Pts/Sal projection in the FantasyLabs models and first in THE BAT’s, making him an ideal cash game option.
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MLB DFS GPP Pick
Corbin Burnes ($9,400) Baltimore Orioles (-177) vs. Kansas City Royals
This is yet another game that could potentially have weather issues, though the likeliest scenario here seems to be a late start than a game that plays through.
Burnes’ ownership projections seem to be the hardest hit by weather concerns of all the pitchers mentioned here. Like Strider, that makes him a strong GPP option, though probably a bit too risky for cash games. There’s also an argument for trying to play Wheeler and Burnes together. While salary is an issue, there’s some sneaky correlation based on weather. Baltimore and Philly are geographically close enough that if one game plays, the other is also likely to.
Weather issues aside, Burnes is an excellent play today. The Royals are implied for just 3.3 runs, and Burnes has a career 30% strikeout rate. He probably won’t punch out 11 in six innings like he did in his Orioles debut last week, but the upside is there.
Additionally, he has the slate’s best Bargain Rating among pitchers on DraftKings, suggesting we’re getting too cheap of a price on Burnes.
MLB DFS Hitters and Stacks
Notable Stack
With the Lineup Builder, it’s easy to incorporate stacks into DFS rosters.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups.
The top DraftKings stack in the FantasyLabs MLB Player Model when generated by rating using an aggregate projection set belongs to the Atlanta Braves:
Just like with Strider, rostering the Braves is a weather-based gamble today — but one that could pay off in a big way. They’re the only team implied for more than five runs on the early slate, and they’re sitting at 5.4. Even better, they’re the visiting team, so they’ll get a guaranteed ninth inning of at-bats.
While it’s exceedingly difficult to pair the Braves with their pitcher — at least without using bottom-of-the-order arms — it’s potentially worth it if you can make the lineup work. Ownership should be manageable, and obviously, if the game plays that means both Strider and the hitters will be active.
There are some cheaper Braves at the bottom of the lineup that could potentially make such a construction work, or you could save money on arms and load up on the Braves studs.
Other MLB DFS Hitter Picks
One of the great features of being a FantasyLabs Pro member is the option to purchase additional items in the FantasyLabs Marketplace.
In addition to our in-house MLB projections, THE BAT X from Derek Carty of RotoGrinders is available in our marketplace. With this purchase, you can use his projections alone or create aggregate projections within our Player Models.
For this example, we created a 50/50 blend with THE BAT X and the FantasyLabs projections to pinpoint some hitters that stand out.
Jake Burger 1B/3B ($4,200) Miami Marlins vs. Los Angeles Angels (Patrick Sandoval)
The Marlins/Angels game is in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field, a domed stadium that means we won’t have to worry about weather issues.
That’s a welcome relief today, given the issues throughout the league. Miami also trails only Atlanta in implied total today (albeit by a fair amount at 4.5 runs), making them an attractive team to target in cash games. Using PlateIQ, we cna identify their best hitters against the left-handed Sandoval easily:
Burger jumps out immediately, and he’s reasonably priced with multi-position eligibility. It doesn’t get much better than that.
Taylor Ward OF ($4,300) Los Angeles Angels at Miami Marlins (AJ Puk)
Marlins starter AJ Puk ($7,000) had an awful first MLB start earlier in the season. He allowed four runs in just two innings of work against the Pirates, who eventually finished with seven runs in the game.
He probably won’t struggle quite as much this time around, but that’s still a strong sign for the Angels. Especially their hitters with good splits against lefty pitchers — like Taylor Ward.
He had an OPS of .896 against southpaws last season, with better ISO and wOBA numbers than Mike Trout ($5,900). That makes him way too cheap for his likely production, along with a handful of his Angels teammates. Stacking this game, in general, with its nine-run total, is a solid cash game strategy.
