After four fantastic weeks in Florida, the PGA TOUR heads to Texas for two tournaments leading up to the Masters. This week’s event in Houston is a familiar venue and tournament, but the title sponsor is new and the spot in the calendar is a shift as well.
Tony Finau won the last Houston Open just over a year ago, in November of 2022. He finished four strokes clear of the field on this historic course, which hosted the Houston Open in the 1950s before the event moved elsewhere for several decades. The course will be hosting the event for the fourth straight season after a 2019 renovation and re-design by Tom Doak with help from player consultant Brooks Koepka.
On the calendar, this year’s tournament now replaces the WGC Match Play in the Texas swing, and since it’s a good tune-up for Augusta, it draws a pretty solid field. Texas native and OWGR No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is back in action, looking for his third straight PGA TOUR win. Including Scheffler, there will be six players in the top 30 of the OWGR teeing it up this week, including Finau, Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Will Zalatoris, and Jason Day. This is a typical full-field event on the PGA TOUR with 144 players that will be cut to the top 65 players and ties after Round 2.
The design of the course is set up to mirror Augusta National, and it typically plays difficult relative to par. The rough will be very different in the spring this year than it has been in the past in the fall. The par 70 will still pose a stern test since it can stretch to almost 7,500 yards, but scores will likely be lower since the rough is not quite as thick. With only four holes with water and very few bunkers, the course’s main difficulty lies in the difficult green complexes that include creative pin positions and run-off areas that make accuracy on approach important and reward players who have strong work around the greens. It’s Texas, so gusty winds are also part of what can make the course difficult, depending on the forecast.
In this post each week, we’ll focus on players who are strong GPP options. That means they have lower ownership projections than their potential performance. Finding this kind of high-leverage play is critical for GPP success. The picks here go against the grain to take advantage of players who may be overlooked and under-owned.
In this post, all Strokes Gained metrics referenced are from the Rabbit Hole.
Usually, I rely on the Stroked Gained Model in FantasyLabs, which is very predictive of results. I also tend to lean into players that gain shots on approach since week-to-week putting performance can be highly volatile, even for the best players on the PGA TOUR.
Since these are GPP picks, we can accept more risk if it raises the lineup’s ceiling. High-risk, high-reward options with low ownership create the “boom-or-bust” style lineups that can lead to large-field success.
GPP contests are contests that have large numbers of entries and pay out huge prizes to the top few percent. This week, the largest GPP on DraftKings is the $600K Pitch + Putt, which awards a $150K top prize to first place.
The players highlighted below will be good options in all formats if they deliver, but they come with risk factors that usually keep them from being safe plays. Consistency and reliability should be the focus of lineups in cash and double-up contests, where finishing in the top spot isn’t quite as important as in GPP tournaments. To find specific guidance for all contest types, check out our full Daily Fantasy Golf coverage each week.
No matter what type of format you prefer, be sure to use the FantasyLabs PGA Models to help you make the best choices. These models use stats and simulations to highlight different players’ strengths and weaknesses. A few critical new stats for GPP play are Perfect% and SimLeverage, which are further explained here.
As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups. Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach.
Check out my top picks in each price range listed below.
Editors note: SimLeverage and Perfect% numbers may change after this piece is published. Be sure to check the PGA Models for any updates to the sims.
High-Priced PGA DFS Picks
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Tony Finau $9,900
There are four players with salaries over $10,000 this week, led by Scottie Scheffler. Scheffler has a deservedly high ownership projection, given his form and course history. All four high-priced players are strong options but have high ownership projections of over 20%. If you’re looking for GPP leverage, the place to find lower ownership projections and still get high ceilings is just outside that top group, starting with the defending champ, Tony Finau.
Finau has more Total Strokes Gained at this venue than any other player in the field. He did miss the cut in one of his three events but finished in the top 25 in 2020 in addition to 2022’s victory. His overall game is very well-suited to the venue since he’s typically very strong on approach, especially from medium to long range.
The course projects to play differently this season, but Finau still offers a huge opportunity with an ownership projection under 12%. While he did miss the cut last week at the Valspar, it was his first missed cut of the season, and he had been playing well before that letdown. He posted four top 25s in his first seven events of 2024, including a T6 at the Farmers Insurance Open. He also had a top 20 at the Genesis Invitational and Mexico Open and made the cut at THE PLAYERS two weeks ago.
Missing the cut last week should get him rested and ready to defend his title, and he’s coming in a little under the radar, especially after such a dominant win last season. He has the fourth-highest SimLeverage in the field, and his Perfect% is the third-highest of the players with salaries under $10,000.
Jason Day $9,500
Jason Day is another proven winner on the PGA TOUR who brings a lower ownership projection and a high ceiling. Day’s ceiling projection is the third-highest in the entire field, and his Perfect% also ranks third in the field behind only Scheffler and Wyndham Clark, who both have more than double his ownership projection, which is under 15%.
Day has made the cut in all three of the previous tournaments held on this track, finishing in the top 20 in two of those tournaments. He hasn’t been in contention on Sunday yet this season, but he has posted three top 10s and made the cut in six of his seven tournaments.
This season, Day’s short game has been excellent. He ranks 11th in the field in Total Strokes Gained over his last 24 rounds and in the top 10 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green during that span. His putter can run hot and cold at times, but he has excelled on these greens in his past trips to Memorial Park. He picked up a win in Texas last year right after The Masters, and this year, I think he could pick up the victory on this side of the first major of the year.
His salary of $9,500 makes him workable alongside Scheffler as a strong one-two at the top of your lineup, or it enables you to build a very balanced lineup if you fade Scottie this week. Day’s low ownership helps him have the highest SimLeverage in the entire field.
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Mid-Priced PGA DFS Picks
Tom Hoge $9,000
Hoge is one of only two players with salaries between $9,200 and $8,200 that has a positive SimLeverage. He will be a great leverage play if he can shake off a tough weekend at THE PLAYERS and return to the form he showed to start the year. He has just a 12% ownership projection, but his odds of a top-10 finish are better than any other player with a salary of $9,000 or lower, according to Vegas.
Hoge has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight straight events, but in his last event, he did struggle on the weekend, fading to a T54 at TPC Sawgrass with a 75-75 finish to the tournament after a strong 67-69 start. Before THE PLAYERS, Hoge posted five straight top 30s, including a pair of top 10s at Signature Events at The Genesis Invitational and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
Over the last 30 rounds, Hoge ranks fifth in the field in Total Stroke Gained and first in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach. He also ranks in the top 20 in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting over that stretch, so it’s easy to see how he has racked up such excellent results. He leads the PGA TOUR in birdies so far this season.
His last time at Memorial Golf Club in 2021, Hoge made the cut and finished 46th after missing the cut in his debut in 2020. After taking last week off, the former TCU standout should be ready to return to form in Houston this week.
Kurt Kitayama $8,100
Kitayama has also been quietly putting together a strong start to 2024 and has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his seven tournaments so far this season. He has the second-highest SimLeverage of all players with salaries between $8,000 and $9,200 with an ownership projection under 13%.
Of all players priced under $9,500, Kitayama has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections this week. He also has the highest Perfect% of all players with salaries under $9,000.
While he has not played the Houston Open at this course before, his game should be a great fit. Over his last 20 rounds, Kitayma ranks in the top 26 in this field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He ranks third on the PGA TOUR this season in par 3 scoring average and 15th in bogey avoidance.
Kitayama has only played seven events this season but posted top 25s at the Sony Open in Hawaii and the Phoenix Open. He played two events in Florida, missing the cut with one bad round at Bay Hill but bouncing back with a strong top-20 at THE PLAYERS in his most recent event.
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Value PGA DFS Picks
Taylor Moore $7,600
There aren’t as many options as usual in the upper $7,000s this week, and as a result, the options in that range are over-saturated based on their SimLeverage and ownership projections. Even Taylor Moore has an ownership projection slightly over 10% and a barely negative SimLeverage, but compared to the players priced around him, he can still differentiate your lineups a bit.
Moore has missed the cut in both of his previous appearances at this venue, but he has been riding a nice heater lately, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last nine PGA TOUR events. He has three top 25s during that span, and his strongest result was last week’s T12 at the Valspar Championship.
Over his last 20 rounds, Moore ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach and 14th in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. His putter has been his problem, but if returning to his home state of Texas can help flip the flat stick, he could be in contention on Sunday. Given the strong form of his iron game, he should be poised to make the cut as a solid value play, even if his putter continues to give him problems.
Victor Perez $7,000
There are several Europeans with low ownership projections and strong SimLeverage in the $7,000s, including Thorbjorn Olesen and Ryan Fox, who have posted strong international results but haven’t put it together on the PGA TOUR quite yet. An even cheaper option that also provides strong leverage is Frenchman Victor Perez, who has an ownership projection under 4% and the third-highest SimLeverage between $7,000 and $8,000 behind only Olesen and Fox.
Perez missed the cut at The Valspar Championship last week but exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his three previous PGA TOUR tournaments. He followed up his T16 at the Cognizant Classic with a T3 at the Puerto Rico Open, where a Final Round 65 left him one shot out of the playoff.
Since coming to the States, Perez ranks in the top 25 on the PGA TOUR in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, but he has struggled putting. The 31-year-old has had success in Texas in the past, though, finishing fourth at the 2021 WGC Match Play for one of his three top-five finishes in his PGA TOUR career. While this week is the same spot in the calendar, the course and format are very different from the Match Play. However, maybe the Texas greens will help him get his putter going enough to capitalize on his excellent approach numbers.
Sleeper PGA DFS Picks
Joseph Bramlett $6,600
Bramlett’s a solid sleeper this week since his game fits the course, and he brings good form. There are definitely some converging trends for the 35-year-old PGA TOUR veteran, and he comes at a very affordable salary.
Last season at the last Houston Open, Bramlett notched a T9 while ranking in the top five in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. He had shaky form both before and after that strong finish last season but comes into this week with a strong T17 last week at the Valspar.
Bramlett has exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his eight tournaments this season and ranks in the top 20 in the field in Total Strokes Gained, Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green, and Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green over his last 12 rounds.
Aaron Baddeley $6,500
Another PGA TOUR veteran who is even more of a flier this week is Aaron Baddeley. The 43-year-old Aussie has flashed some solid form over the last few months, posting top 30s in four of his last six events, dating back to the WM Phoenix Open. He missed the cut in his other two events during that span, so he is a “boom-or-bust” style of play that works for GPP lineups but may carry too much risk for cash contests. His ownership projection is under 1%, though, so if he hits, he’ll be a great leverage play.
In six of his last eight measured rounds, he has gained at least 0.90 strokes around the green, and he has continued to be one of the top putters on the PGA TOUR. With the setup this week allowing a little more forgiveness off the tee, it could play to Badds’ strengths. He ranks first in the field in Stroked Gained: Putting over the last 20 rounds and also ranks in the top five in Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green. Baddeley has not played this event since it relocated to this course but did make the cut in 7-of-13 trips to the Golf Club of Houston with three top 25s and a fourth-place finish back in 2011.
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