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Each weekday, our Data Dive articles use 10 of these metrics to highlight notable players in the day’s Main slate.
Batters
After watching Kris Bryant tee off for three home runs and the Rockies-Blue Jays combine for 14 total runs, it seems like tonight is probably yet another Coors-dominated slate in which you must hit on the right bats. I mean, just take a look at the winner of last night’s FanDuel Squeeze. If you didn’t have Bryant, sorry.
Park Factor: 100, All Batters, Coors Field
Coors Field is alive and well, despite the fences being raised during the offseason. These players are very expensive, but our Plus/Minus metric — adjusted for salary — shows that even the super-high salaries don’t limit value. Which Rockies and Blue Jays batters you roster tonight will largely depend on pitching (which we’ll get to), but rest assured that bottom-of-the-order guys can get it done, too.
Recent Batted-Ball Distance (Ft): 261, Justin Bour
Bour, projected to hit sixth for the (maybe good?) Miami Marlins tonight, has been absolutely crushing the ball lately. His batted-ball distance mentioned above, exit velocity of 96 miles per hour, and ridiculous hard-hit rate of 53 percent are all elite marks. Guys with comparable recent stats have been a value historically, so look for Bour to continue this crazy pace:
Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA): .464, David Ortiz
Ortiz is in a bad hitter’s park, especially compared to Coors Field: The Park Factor Rating for lefties at Tropicana Field is 23, compared to the 100 mark seen above. However, that hasn’t really stopped Ortiz in the past: His overall Plus/Minus historically is +1.07 on DraftKings, and that number barely moves to +1.06 when he’s at below-average parks. Ortiz crushes righties everywhere.
Isolated Power (ISO): .365, Chris Davis
The Coors batters will likely be very highly owned, but we’re seeing some batters in Ortiz and Chris Davis who have just as much Upside as anyone. Davis gets Erik Johnson tonight, who has averaged -0.33 DK points in his last three games and has a miserable 3.015 HR/9 allowed rate. All signs point to a Crush bomb.
Plus/Minus, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our free Ratings tool.
Recent Hard-Hit Percentage (%): 56, Colby Rasmus
Lefty Colby Rasmus is projected to hit fifth for the Astros tonight against righty Tim Lincecum. Rasmus’ high recent hard-hit rate of 56 percent is a whopping 19 points higher than his yearly average. Combining those two into a trend show a nice +0.99 Plus/Minus historically for batters with those marks. The Astros are projected for only 4.4 runs — an average number for this slate — so you can likely get Rasmus’ hard hitting at an ownership discount.
Bargain Rating (%): 99 (FD), Adam Eaton
Eaton is only $3,200 on FanDuel despite having a .349 wOBA versus righties and being on a team with an implied Vegas total of 4.9 runs. He also has sneaky stolen-base potential: He is averaging 0.125 SB/G in the last year. Going against a guy who has trouble getting guys out — Kyle Gibson and his 1.434 WHIP — Eaton has the opportunity to score points in a variety of ways tonight.
Pitchers
Alright, you want to load up on bats. That means that we’ll need to find some hidden value in pitchers. But first, let’s hit the chalk.
K Prediction (SO): 7.7, Jon Lester
Lester has both the highest K Prediction and highest moneyline (-250) in tonight’s slate. Those two factors alone produce a ridiculously-high historical Plus/Minus. It’s possible, given the bats and totals in this 15-game slate, that Lester could be a bit underowned tonight because of his high $11,700 DraftKings salary.
Pitch Velocity Differential (MPH): +2.2, CC Sabathia
Just as we all expected, it is 35-year-old CC Sabathia that has cranked up his pitch velocity the most in his last two starts. However, oddly enough, this has not been a historically profitable trend for pitchers. Combine that with the fact that the Yankees are projected to allow 4.4 runs to the Rangers tonight and Sabathia becomes a tournament-only play at best.
Pro Trends (FD): 8, Hisashi Iwakuma
It’s tough to find a value pitcher in a terrific spot tonight (which is probably why they’re value pitchers), but Iwakuma could be an interesting cheap option. Despite getting rocked for 11 hits last game, he is projected to allow only 3.7 runs against the Pirates tonight. He is also playing in a top-five pitcher’s park and is a fairly heavy favorite at -180. You could do much worse in the bargain bin than Iwakuma.
Bargain Rating (%): 98 (FD), Corey Kluber
Kluber is only $10,800 at FanDuel, whereas he is $13,400 at DraftKings — $1,700 higher than Jon Lester. Kluber does get the Braves tonight, and his -200 moneyline reflects that he is likely to get the 12-point FD win bonus. He is also facing a team with a slate-low implied total of 3.1 runs. Given the huge pricing discrepancy between sites, definitely pick and choose your Kluber exposure.
