PGA DFS Picks: Using Perfect% Simulations To Find Value at the Arnold Palmer Invitational

For the second of four straight events in Florida, this week is the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which will be played at Bay Hill Club and Lodge (par 72, 7,466 yards, Bermuda greens) in Orlando. Since 1979, this course has been the home of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. While the venue remains the same, this tournament will host a smaller field of only 69 golfers as one of the PGA TOUR’s eight signature events this season. Top 50 and ties and anyone within 10 shots of the lead will make the cut.

At FantasyLabs, we have two data columns (and many more) in our PGA Models called “Perfect%” and “SimLeverage.”

Perfect% reflects the percentage chance that a player lands on the perfect lineup for the current PGA tournament. This percentage is based on thousands of simulations driven by FantasyLabs’ proprietary projections.

SimLeverage shows the difference between Perfect% and our projected ownership. SimLeverage is best used to determine leverage in GPPs.

However, this article is going to focus on Perfect% and how to use it to find value plays for this PGA DFS slate.

As you dig into the numbers, you can enjoy the many tools that FantasyLabs offers, including the Lineup Optimizer, which effortlessly creates up to 300 lineups.

Alternatively, you can use the Lineup Builder if you prefer a more hands-on approach for cash games or single-entry tournaments.

And don’t forget to utilize our various PGA DFS tools, like our PGA Correlation Dashboard and our Trends tool.

PGA DFS Value Picks for the Arnold Palmer Invitational

Jordan Spieth ($9,400)

Spieth carries the fourth highest Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the seventh most-expensive golfer on DraftKings and is an excellent player to pay up for this week. The three-time major champion has been brilliant at Bay Hill, finishing T4th in his debut at the course in 2021 and then carding another T4 in his second attempt at the track last season.

Of all the golfers in this field who have competed at Bay Hill more than once, Spieth ranks first in Strokes Gained per round at the difficult par 72. The 30-year-old was disqualified after a scorecard error at the Genesis in his last start, but before this debacle, Spieth had looked awesome to begin the season, with two top-six finishes in his first three starts of 2024.

Plus, Spieth ranks sixth in par-5 efficiency when we compare this field’s last 50 rounds, which is terrific news with Bay Hill up next. The par fours are extremely difficult at this track, and capitalizing on the four scoreable par 5s is crucial if you want to contend at Bay Hill.

Of the past three winners at this venue, two finished the event in the top three in par-5 efficiency.

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Jason Day ($8,200)

Day checks all the boxes this week. When we exclude withdrawals, the Aussie has made 8-of-9 cuts at Bay Hill, with six of those finishes being top-25 results. Most notably, Day won at Bay Hill in 2016, and he finished T10 here last season.

As for his current form, Day is on the heels of a T9 at the Genesis, which, like the Arnold Palmer Invitational, is one of the PGA TOUR’s signature events this season that hosts all of the best players on the circuit. This notably marked Day’s third top-10 finish of 2024 in only five starts.

The former major champion ranks 12th in SG: Tee-To-Green this season and must be rostered at this affordable salary, which is the cheapest Day has ever been for an Arnold Palmer Invitational on DraftKings. While only the 19th most expensive option on DraftKings this week, the veteran presents the 10th-highest Perfect% in our PGA models.

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Chris Kirk ($7,800)

Kirk loves teeing it up in Florida. The 38-year-old finished T28th at the Cognizant Classic at PGA National this past week and won at the venue last year. Kirk has also been terrific at Bay Hill, where he owns a 9-for-11 record in terms of made cuts, with five top-20 finishes.

Kirk enters this week with eight top-30 finishes in his last 10 starts – with the highlight of this run being a victory at the Sentry in January – and ranks 10th in Total Strokes Gained when we analyze this field’s last 24 rounds at courses that are home to Bermuda greens.

Furthermore, Kirk’s ball striking has been stellar, with him ranking ninth in SG: Approach over his last 50 rounds. Three of the past four winners at Bay Hill have finished the tournament top-10 in SG: Approach, and he should add another high finish to his impressive Arnold Palmer Invitational resume this weekend.

Kirk carries the 18th-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models but is only the 25^th most expensive player on DraftKings.

Adam Scott ($7,500)

Scott has been great in 2024, finishing T20, T8, and T19 in his first three starts of the season. As always, Scott’s ball striking has been magnificent, with him gaining strokes on approach during all three of these finishes and ranking sixth in SG: Approach for the season. Scott’s flat stick has also been impressive, with him gaining at least 1.7 strokes putting in back-to-back starts.

The Aussie’s game is clearly firing on all cylinders right now, and he should shine in his return to Bay Hill this week, possibly with a top-10 finish. In 13 starts at the Florida venue, Scott has produced seven finishes of T31 or better, including a pair of T3 finishes.

Not only is Scott a great value play – he carries the 24th-highest Perfect% in our PGA Models, but he is only the 32^nd highest-priced player on DraftKings – the former Masters champion isn’t expected to be a common name in GPPs.