The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at Orlando Magic – $10,300 DraftKings, $11,600 FanDuel
After a couple of mediocre games in a row, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had another ceiling game last time out against the Kings, scoring 38 points while shooting 15-for-26 from the field and 3-for-4 from behind the arc. Gilgeous-Alexander looks much better on DraftKings than FanDuel at his cheap $10,300 price tag. He has a 95% Bargain Rating and has returned a positive Plus/Minus in five of his last seven games. When paying up at point guard, he is the only option.
Sitting one game behind the top seed in the Western Conference, the Thunder are 2.5-point road favorites against the Magic. Despite the Magic ranking fourth in the league in defensive rating, Gilgeous-Alexander can still take advantage of this matchup. He has a 32.7% usage rate, which ranks third in the league, and is currently second in the league MVP voting.
Top Value: D’Angelo Russell vs. Detroit Pistons – $7,300 DraftKings, $7,900 FanDuel
Playing in one of the best game environments on the slate, the Lakers have a slate-high 126.25-point implied total tonight. They are 11-point home favorites against the Pistons, who continue to have the worst record in the league. Spencer Dinwiddie will debut with the Lakers, but our models prefer paying the extra salary to get up to D’Angelo Russell. Russell is coming off a 30-point game and has recorded a positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 12 games.
There is always a chance that one of Anthony Davis and LeBron James are unable to play. They are both questionable, and due to the easy matchup, it is on the table. Russell looks like a strong mid-range option, regardless of how well he has been playing. He is shooting a career-best 41.8% from behind the arc while averaging 17.5 points per game this year.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Devin Booker vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,700 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
Priced at $9,700 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Devin Booker is coming off back-to-back 32-point games. His usage rate is starting to creep back up into the 30% range in those two games. Booker is having his best year as a pro. He is averaging a career-high 28 points and 7.1 assists per game while shooting a career-best 50.2% from the field. Given the low price tag, he can easily exceed his salary in this matchup. The Suns are five-point home favorites, implied for 125.25 points.
The Kings are an exploitable matchup, given how fast they play and their poor perimeter defense. They rank just outside the top 10 in pace and 20th in defensive rating. Opponents are shooting a league-high 39.8% against them from downtown, which bodes well for the sharpshooting Booker. He looks like a better play on FanDuel, where Booker has 10 Pro Trends.
Top Value: Tyler Herro at Milwaukee Bucks – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,800 FanDuel
The Miami Heat are dealing with a ton of injuries to their backcourt, including Terry Rozier, Jimmy Butler, and Josh Richardson. All three are out, with Duncan Robinson questionable. That will open up the floodgates for Tyler Herro, who is playing a homecoming game at Milwaukee tonight. Herro has put together back-to-back strong performances, averaging 24 points, 5.5 assists, five rebounds, and per game, 37.85 DraftKings points per game while shooting 55.6% from the field.
Staying under $7,000 on DraftKings, Herro is projected for the highest ownership on the slate. He will be a staple in cash games with most of the Heat backcourt being out. Herro is projected to play around 36 minutes and have a 26% usage rate. Both of those numbers could rise if the Heat are able to stay competitive as eight-point road underdogs in Milwaukee.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Jayson Tatum at Brooklyn Nets – $9,500 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Jayson Tatum has been flirting with a triple-double in six of his last seven games. During that time, he is averaging 28 points, 8.7 rebounds, and seven assists per game. Tatum has captured a double-double in five of his last 10 games and 19 times already. However, he has yet to get that elusive triple-double this season. Tatum will get another great opportunity tonight against the Nets. In his two meetings against the Nets, Tatum is averaging 27.5 points and 10.5 rebounds per game.
Kristaps Porzingis is questionable to play with a back injury. That would make Tatum’s outlook even more promising. With Porzingis off the floor this season, Tatum has played the most minutes on the team, and his usage rate increased by exactly 3%. Among the pay-up options, he has the third-highest projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Top Value: Jaime Jaquez at Milwaukee Bucks – $4,500 DraftKings, $5,900 FanDuel
Another Heat value player worth getting exposure to is rookie Jaime Jaquez. He is projected to draw his 17th start of the season against the Bucks. In his previous 16 starts, Jaquez averaged 15 points per game and cleared double-digit points in 13 of his last 14 games. His teammate Duncan Robinson is projected to be higher-owned, but he is questionable to even play. Jaquez is the safer of the two options, given how versatile he can be on the floor. He is their Swiss Army knife.
Jaquez looks exceptionally cheap on DraftKings at $4,500 with a 96% Bargain Rating. His game logs are not a pretty sight, but Jaquez will get plenty of opportunity in this matchup with the plethora of injured Heat players. It’s not like the Bucks are a stout defense like they have had. They rank middle of the pack in defensive rating, so Jaquez can excel in this spot tonight.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Kevin Durant vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,800 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel
Given the egregious salary of Giannis Antetokounmpo on both sites and the difficult matchup against the Miami Heat, Kevin Durant is the top power forward across the industry. Durant actually has the highest projected ceiling at the power forward position tonight and the third-highest on DraftKings and FanDuel. Giannis is still a worthy pay-up option, but Durant is the better cost-per-dollar selection. It helps that he has a points and rebound double-double in two of his last three games.
Similar to his teammate Devin Booker, Durant has seen an uptick in his usage rate recently and is shooting the ball very efficiently. He is averaging a team-high 28.3 points per game while shooting over 50% from the field for the 12th straight season. Among the pay-up options, Durant is the highest owned on FanDuel and has a strong 72% Bargain Rating.
Top Value: Jonathan Isaac vs. OKC Thunder – $3,400 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Priced near the stone minimum on DraftKings and underpriced on FanDuel, Jonathan Isaac is starting to get more playing time for the Magic. It is difficult to keep Isaac off the floor when he is putting up 12 rebounds, seven points, and three blocks like he did last game. His versatility and defensive upside will solidify his playing time against Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Isaac is projected to draw around 30% ownership on FanDuel and 20% on DraftKings. He is a strong value on both sites.
Isaac is another easy way to get exposure to the expensive options on tonight’s slate. His $3,400 salary on DraftKings is drawing a 95% Bargain Rating, and he is projected to play only a modest 17 minutes. Isaac doesn’t have to do much to exceed that price tag. He also has posted a positive Plus/Minus in seven of his last nine games on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Phoenix Suns – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,700 FanDuel
Leading the league with 17 triple-doubles, Domantas Sabonis has been on a tear recently. He has recorded a triple-double in four of his last five games and has a positive Plus/Minus in 12 of his last 14 games. Reasonably priced across the industry, he is impossible to ignore, given how well he has been playing. He leads the league with 13.2 rebounds per game while also averaging 19.9 points and a career-high 8.3 assists per game. Sabonis has been incredible all season.
He has fared well in his three meetings with the Suns frontcourt this season. Sabonis is averaging a near triple-double with 21.3 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 9.3 assists per game while shooting an absurd 73% from the field. Projected for about 20% ownership on DraftKings and 15% on FanDuel, he is a fantastic pay-up option, especially on FanDuel with dual eligibility.
Top Value: Bam Adebayo at Milwaukee Bucks – $8,300 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel
Bam Adebayo stuffed the stat sheet last game with 22 points, 13 rebounds, four assists, two steals, and two blocks to finish with over 50 DraftKings points. He will need to continue to have high usage with so many valuable Heat players not able to play tonight. This is the first season that Adebayo is averaging a 20-point, 10-rebound double-double. He will be the most popular center on the slate, but it is for good reason. His mid-range price tag makes him easy to fit into all builds.
Surprisingly, the Bucks have been at attackable defense in their interior. They are allowing 52.6 points per game in the paint this season, which is the 10th-highest mark in the league. The Bucks also rank 20th in rebounding percentage at 49.4%. This is a fantastic matchup for Adebayo to display his ceiling. He can accumulate fantasy points in a variety of ways tonight.
