The NBA Player Models are the lifeblood of our NBA product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. You’ll also find our Trends and On/Off tool, Vegas Dashboard, and so much more.
Let’s dive into our models for NBA DFS going position by position, looking at guys with some of the highest ceiling projections and players standing out as values with our predictive Projected Plus/Minus metric.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your teams.
Note: Projections and Leverage Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day as news comes out after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Luka Doncic at Philadelphia 76ers – $12,000 DraftKings, $12,600 FanDuel
Priced in a tier of his own, Luka Doncic has the highest projected ceiling on this six-game slate by a wide margin. In his last seven games, Doncic has provided a massive ceiling, averaging 40.9 points, 11.7 assists, 11 rebounds, and 78.8 DraftKings points per game. The only issue is that Doncic is questionable, so make sure to keep an eye on his status the closer we get to lock. If Doncic is ruled out, the immediate beneficiary is Kyrie Irving, who is expected back for the first time in six games.
The 76ers are a completely different team without reigning MVP Joel Embiid, who is out for the foreseeable future. They have a 4-10 record, and their defensive rating drops from 112.6 to 120.7 without Embiid controlling the paint. Despite his $12,000+ salary on both sites, Doncic is the best pay-up option on the slate if he is playing.
Nobody can match his ceiling.
Top Value: Immanuel Quickley at New Orleans Pelicans – $7,000 DraftKings, $7,400 FanDuel
After missing three straight games with a minor injury, Immanuel Quickley picked up right where he left off with back-to-back great performances. Quickley recorded a 17-point, 11-assist double-double last game, made six 3-pointers, and scored 25 points in the game prior. He had a positive Plus/Minus in both contests and looks like a strong value option. Since joining the Raptors, Quickley is averaging a career-high 17.3 points per game while shooting 43.5% from behind the arc.
Despite the Pelicans ranking eighth in defensive rating this season, this is an exploitable matchup for him on the perimeter. Given Quickley’s elite 3-point shooting, this matchup sets up perfectly for the long-range sniper. The Pelicans rank last in 3-pointers allowed with 39.4 per game. Priced in the mid-range, Quickley is a good option in a balanced build.
Don’t forget to check out our NBA SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Top Ceiling: Donovan Mitchell vs. Sacramento Kings – $9,700 DraftKings, $10,600 FanDuel
The Cavaliers have won 13 of their last 14 games, and Donovan Mitchell is the main reason for their success. During their winning streak, he is averaging 28.7 points, 7.6 assists, and 51.2 DraftKings points per game. Even though Mitchell is starting to get a healthy supporting cast, he is their go-to option. Mitchell leads the Cavaliers in points, usage rate, assists, and steals per game. Prioritize Mitchell on DraftKings, where he is $900 cheaper than FanDuel with a 91% Bargain Rating.
Looking for their ninth consecutive home victory, the Cavaliers are 4.5-point home favorites against the Kings. A great example of the Cavaliers’ pecking order is their January 31st game. Despite Darius Garland and Evan Mobley being back, Mitchell erupted for 45 points and 72.5 DraftKings points.
He is impossible to ignore on this slate with weak pay-up options.
Top Value: Cam Thomas vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,600 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel
One of the highest-owned players at the guard position is Nets shooting guard Cam Thomas. Over his last five games, the microwave scorer has averaged over 30 points per game and has a positive Plus/Minus in each contest. He is shooting 53.7% from the field and 46.7% from behind the arc during that time, with a 33.6% usage rate. Thomas is coming off a 40-point game where he shot 14-for-26 from the field and 5-for-11 from downtown and made seven of his eight free-throw attempts.
Since the start of the New Year, the Warriors rank 29th in defensive rating. They have struggled to defend on the perimeter, and Thomas erupted for 41 points in their last meeting in December. With Dorian Finney-Smith and Ben Simmons out, the playing time for Thomas will be solidified. He is projected to play around 35 minutes and be an elite value on both sites.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: LeBron James at Charlotte Hornets – $10,000 DraftKings, $10,200 FanDuel
Projected for less than 10% ownership on both DraftKings and FanDuel, LeBron James will be a fantastic contrarian pay-up option. Leading the Lakers in points, usage rate, assists, and steals per game this season, James has put together another All-Star season at the age of 39. He is shooting 52% from the field, which is his 13th year of the past 15, where James has shot 50%+ from the floor. James has also made at least two 3-pointers in eight straight games. He’s still got it.
James will get a cupcake matchup against the Hornets, who rank last in defensive rating this season at 121.3. The Lakers are a slate-high 12-point road favorites, implied for 119.75 points. James did record a triple-double a little over a week ago, and it wouldn’t be surprising if he racked up another one. This is a phenomenal spot to get exposure to a low-owned James.
Top Value: Cameron Johnson vs. Golden State Warriors – $5,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel
Currently, the most popular player on the DraftKings slate is Nets forward Cameron Johnson. Similar to Cam Thomas, Johnson is another great way to get exposure to the Nets’ offense at a cheap price tag. Johnson has one of the biggest pricing discrepancies, being only $5,000 on DraftKings compared to $6,300 on FanDuel. Prioritize the sharpshooter on DraftKings, where he has a 95% Bargain Rating. He is one of the best values on the slate at his very cheap salary tonight.
After a career year last season, Johnson has taken a little bit of a step back this season, only averaging 13.9 points per game. However, that is still the third-highest on the Nets, and he is shooting 39.8% from distance. Johnson has increased his rebounding recently, which helps his floor when the shot isn’t falling. He is simply too cheap on DraftKings in this matchup.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Top Ceiling: Anthony Davis at Charlotte Hornets – $9,900 DraftKings, $11,300 FanDuel
With power forward and center eligibility on DraftKings and FanDuel, Anthony Davis is by far the most popular pay-up option on this slate. Priced under $10,000 on DraftKings, it feels like an absolute steal for Davis. His cheap salary is resulting in 11 Pro Trends and a 96% Bargain Rating. He has been inconsistent recently but always has the potential to put up a ceiling performance. His 12.2 rebounds per game tie for third in the league, and he is averaging 24.7 points per game.
It is hard to find a better matchup for Davis than this Hornets frontcourt. They rank 27th in rebounding percentage with 48.1% and 24th in points allowed in the paint with 53.8 per game. DraftKings sportsbook has Davis at a near lock to record a double-double in this matchup at -500. This is a perfect matchup for him to get back on track with a huge game tonight.
Top Value: Tobias Harris vs. Dallas Mavericks – $7,400 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel
Tobias Harris is questionable to play with an illness, but he has had four days off after missing the 76ers last game. If he is able to suit up, Harris looks like a fantastic mid-range value play. If Harris is unable to play, Tyrese Maxey becomes one of the best plays on the slate. Maxey gets a slight edge to Harris when Embiid is not in the lineup, but it is not by much. With the reigning MVP off the floor this year, Harris has a +4.43% usage rate and a +5.6 DraftKings Plus/Minus in 598 minutes.
The 76ers are 1.5-point home underdogs, but this matchup against the Mavericks has the highest total on the slate at 242.5 points. The Mavericks rank eighth in pace, and the 76ers have played faster recently without Embiid on the floor. Harris will get plenty of opportunities against a defense that struggles defending the perimeter. Just make sure that he can suit up.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Top Ceiling: Domantas Sabonis at Cleveland Cavaliers – $10,100 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Priced a little over $10,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, Domantas Sabonis is playing the best basketball of his career. The versatile center is averaging 19.9 points, a league and career-high 13 rebounds, and eight assists per game this season. He is shooting 61.9% from the field and 43.4% from distance. He has recorded a positive Plus/Minus eight of his last 10 games. Sabonis has a triple-double in half of those games and continues to lead the league with 44 double-doubles.
The Cavaliers may be without Jarrett Allen, who is questionable with an ankle injury. That would make life easier for Sabonis even with Evan Mobley back. Allen is one of the best defensive big men in the league and a key reason why the Cavaliers allow 46.5 points per game in the paint. If Allen is out, this is a green light special for Sabonis.
Top Value: Nic Claxton vs. Golden State Warriors – $6,900 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel
Another Nets value player who looks great on this six-game slate is Nic Claxton. The athletic big man leads all centers on FanDuel with the highest projected Plus/Minus and is second on DraftKings behind Anthony Davis. Claxton is drawing over 20% ownership, which shouldn’t be surprising with his recent game log. He has a double-double and positive Plus/Minus in 10 of his last 14 games. Claxton has defensive upside with his 2.2 blocks per game, which is the sixth-highest in the league.
The Warriors have been an incredible rebounding team, which does limit his ceiling a little bit. However, in their last meeting, Claxton had no trouble in this matchup, recording a 19-point, 12-rebound double-double, including four blocks. Among the Nets value options, Claxton may be the best of the bunch. He is too cheap and has so much upside in this spot.
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