The NBA continues a full week of action this Thursday, but it does take a little bit of a break with fewer games to consider. Four games make up the main DFS slate on Thursday sandwiched between 10-game schedules on Wednesday and Friday. Of the eight teams in action, the Cavaliers are the only team playing for the second night in a row while the Pacers and Grizzlies will play again on Friday.
As usual at this point of the season, multiple key players are dealing with injuries that have the potential to impact Thursday’s contests. Keep an eye out for status updates throughout the day and be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest adjustments as news breaks.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
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The Knicks host the Pacers in one of the biggest contrasts in styles in the NBA. The Pacers play fast and get in high-scoring games while the Knicks grind things out more on defense. The Knicks have the highest pace differential on Thursday’s slate in this favorable matchup against the Pacers, and Jalen Brunson is in a great spot to continue his impressive run of production.
On Thursday’s slate, Brunson has the highest median and ceiling projections of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites and ranks in the top three in Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate.
Brunson had 29 points and nine assists in Tuesday’s win over the Jazz, and he has scored at least that many points in eight of his last nine games. In those nine games, he averaged 1.36 DraftKings points and 1.31 FanDuel points per minute and led the Knicks with a 33.4% usage rate.
He’ll have to continue to carry a large workload while Julius Randle (shoulder) is sidelined, and he’s projected for 34.1% usage in 37.0 minutes in Thursday’s juicy matchup.
Value
The Grizzlies have been wiped out by injuries this season, but they continue to offer good value as other players step up to help fill in the gaps. Scotty Pippen Jr. has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel and the fourth-highest on DraftKings. Pippen made his first start of the season on Monday against the Kings and had 12 points, five assists, and three steals for 29.5 DraftKings points and 30.9 FanDuel points in 32 minutes.
While Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart are all out with long-term injuries, John Konchar (ankle) is questionable while Luke Kennard (knee) and Derrick Rose (hamstring) are doubtful. Even if Konchar does return, there should still be plenty of work for Pippen to be a good play under $5,000 on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
He is projected for a 20.6% usage rate in 28.9 minutes against the Cavs, and he’s a very solid pay-down play that should get plenty of volume.
Fast Break
Tyrese Haliburton expects to play on Thursday against Brunson and the Knicks, but he’s officially still questionable. He was on a minutes limit in his return and expects to be on one for the next several games. As a result, he’s very risky to pay up for since his workload is very uncertain. Building around Haliburton has been a great strategy this season, but I’m still holding off on going back to the well until he’s able to return to his full workload.
The Jazz host the short-handed 76ers on Thursday with Joel Embiid (knee) out and Tyrese Maxey (ankle) questionable. On the other side of that matchup, Collin Sexton brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating. Sexton had a great January aside from one dud in Brooklyn on Monday. Over his 16 games during the month, he produced 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.32 FanDuel points per minute while playing 25.6 minutes per game with a 29.1% usage rate.
If Maxey misses the game, Patrick Beverley will be a strong mid-range play worth considering. He has scored at least 12 points in each of his last three games and has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight of his last 10 games.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
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The Cavaliers got Darius Garland back from a 19-game absence on Wednesday night in their victory over the Pistons, but the star guard was limited to just 20 minutes. He may or may not play Thursday against the Grizzlies, but either way, Donovan Mitchell projects to be a top option to consider.
Spida has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projections at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He matches 11 Pro Trends on both sites as well, which is the second-most of all players on DraftKings and the third-most of all players on FanDuel.
Mitchell dropped 45 points against the Pistons on Wednesday and has had 25+ points in nine of his 13 games in January. During the month, he averaged 1.50 DraftKings points and 1.49 FanDuel points per minute while logging 34 minutes per game with a 34.2% usage rate. With the return of Garland and Evan Mobley, Mitchell’s workload will likely decrease, but he still is a great centerpiece to build around while those two are in the process of ramping back up after extended absences.
Value
Without Randle and OG Anunoby (elbow, questionable) for the last two games, Donte DiVincenzo has gone off with a pair of huge performances for the Knicks. Against the Pacers, our projections are high on him again this Thursday, giving him the highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the entire slate on DraftKings and the highest of all shooting guards and small forwards on FanDuel.
In his last two games, DiVincenzo has taken it to another level, but he has been trending in the right direction since stepping in following the Knicks’ trade of R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley to the Raptors. Since the trade, he averaged 1.15 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute while playing 27.4 minutes per game.
In his last two games with Randle and Anunoby out, he has averaged 30.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists, and 2.0 steals for 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.28 FanDuel points per minute. While he may not be able to sustain that level of production long term, he should be able to keep it rolling in this very favorable matchup against the Pacers, especially if OG is out for another game, opening up more minutes and opportunities.
Fast Break
The Celtics have the highest implied team total on the slate, as they host the banged-up Lakers. Both Jrue Holiday and Derrick White are options worth considering, with Holiday being the slightly better play lately. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings, where he has an 86% Bargain Rating. White is a strong option on FanDuel, although his salary has climbed over $7,000.
While the 76ers are shorthanded, Kelly Oubre Jr. has carried more of the scoring load. He had 25 points in losses to the Nuggets and Trail Blazers last week while Embiid was sidelined, and he has a high upside in this matchup with the Jazz, especially if Maxey joins Embiid on the sidelines.
If you need a bargain shooting guard, Quentin Grimes has a high ceiling, especially if Anunoby remains out. Grimes is still under $4,000 on DraftKings and under $5,000 on FanDuel. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in three of his last four games, with at least 12 points in each of those contests.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
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The big matchup to watch at small forward will be Jayson Tatum vs. LeBron James, provided that James can play through his questionable tag. Tatum is cheaper than LeBron on both DraftKings and FanDuel but has higher ceiling, median, and floor projections, giving him a much better Projected Plus/Minus. Our projections give him a clear edge over LeBron, and it helps that this should be a good pace-up matchup for Boston at home with the highest implied team total on the board.
Tatum was mired in a little bit of a shooting slump in the middle of January, but he finished with over 25 points in four of his last five games, including a 30-point, seven-rebound, seven-assist performance in his most recent game on Tuesday to help his Celtics past the Pacers. His increase in non-scoring production over his last few games has boosted him to 1.51 DraftKings points and 1.47 FanDuel points per minute over his last five contests.
Overall this season, Tatum’s usage is slightly down since he’s getting more help from Kristaps Porzingis and Derrick White. However, he still gets enough work to be an elite fantasy play and should rise to the occasion in this showcase matchup against the Lakers.
Value
One of the players who has stepped up for the Pacers while Haliburton has been out is Aaron Nesmith, who remains underpriced on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards priced under $6,000. Nesmith is priced just over $6,000 on FanDuel, but he does bring added roster eligibility at power forward.
Nesmith has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games on both DraftKings and FanDuel and has led the team with 175 minutes during that span. The addition of Pascal Siakam to the mix hasn’t cost him playing time at all and seems to be helping him to thrive. In those five games, Nesmith produced 1.10 DraftKings points and 1.07 FanDuel points per minute.
While the Pacers still have lots of different wing options, Nesmith seems to have grown into a sizable and reliable role at small forward, and he brings good value to his matchup at Madison Square Garden on Thursday.
Fast Break
Vince Williams Jr. has been one of the best fantasy producers for Memphis during the last few weeks and is not on the injury report after missing Monday’s game with knee soreness. Williams produced 0.98 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute over his last 10 games while logging 33.3 minutes per game with a 17.5% usage rate. Even though he doesn’t take a ton of shots, his multi-category production and high volume make him a strong mid-tier option on Thursday.
The Jazz have been relying heavily on Lauri Markkanen, who will be looking to bounce back after a couple of down games against Brooklyn and New York to start the week. He was held to 13 and 14 points in those two contests, but he had 21+ points in 10 of his previous 11 games. Coming home and facing the depleted Sixers should put him in a good bounce-back spot.
The Jazz also offer some of the best cheap options at small forward in Kris Dunn and Simone Fontecchio, who have the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the options under $6,000 on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Bennedict Mathurin has the highest Projected Plus/Minus under $6,000, and Grimes has the highest under $5,000, followed by Sam Hauser at just $4,100 on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
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While it isn’t his most natural role, Jaren Jackson Jr. has had to step into an extremely high-usage position in Memphis due to the team’s limited options. He has a usage rate of over 34% in seven straight games and is projected for 34.9% usage on Thursday against the Cavs. He scored 25+ points in five of those seven contests, and taking so many shots propelled him to produce 1.24 DraftKings points and 1.24 FanDuel points per minute over those seven games.
Jackson has the fifth-highest ceiling projection at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the second-highest at center behind only the injured Anthony Davis. He is still only priced at just over $8,000 but brings an elite ceiling since so much of the offensive workload has to come his way on a nightly basis.
Value
Josh Hart is another great option from the Knicks to consider in their pace-up spot against Indiana. Hart has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings. He also ranks in the top three in Projected Plus/Minus on both sites at small forward.
Hart has started each of the last two games for New York, playing 39 minutes against the Hornets and 43 minutes against the Jazz the following night. He exceeded salary-based expectations in both of those games and in four straight overall. In his heavy workload Tuesday, he finished with a triple-double of 10 points, 10 assists, and 10 rebounds.
If Anunoby returns, his minutes could be slightly reduced, but he has shown he can be a great value and fill in multiple categories in a bigger role while Randle is out.
Fast Break
If Anthony Davis misses a second straight game, LeBron James could end up with an even bigger workload in Boston, provided he can play through his own questionable tag. While Tatum still seems like a better option, both have very high ceilings and can fit at power forward or small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Tobias Harris has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKigns and the second-highest on FanDuel. He had an impressive 26 points and 10 rebounds against the Warriors on Tuesday and will have to step up with at least Embiid and possibly Maxey out on Thursday. With Embiid off the floor this season, Harris has a 25.3% usage rate, which is 4.5 percentage points above his average. He has produced 1.09 DraftKings points and 1.09 FanDuel points per minute in that situation.
Like on Tuesday, the Lakers will present good bargain options unless both AD and LeBron end up playing. Jarred Vanderbilt, Rui Hachimura, and Taurean Prince are worth a look if either superstar sits, with Vanderbilt offering the highest ceiling of the bunch and Hachimura projected to be the best value.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
After missing two games with a sprained ankle, Kristaps Porzingis looked sharp on Tuesday in his return, posting 17 points and 12 rebounds in 31 minutes against the Pacers. Porzingis should be in a great matchup against the Lakers, especially if Davis ends up missing a second straight game. He has the fourth-highest ceiling projection and fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Porzingis has produced 1.22 DraftKings points and 1.23 FanDuel points per minute on the season for the Celtics and has been tracking slightly over those numbers when available over the last month. When he faced the Lakers on Christmas, he had 28 points and 11 boards on his way to over 50 DraftKings points.
Like JJJ, Porzingis brings an elite ceiling from a salary that isn’t close to $10,000. He’s a very strong piece to build around on Thursday night in what should be a good spot, especially if the Lakers are again shorthanded.
Value
Without Embiid, Paul Reed becomes a consideration for the Sixers. He showed that he has a very high ceiling by exploding for 30 points and 13 rebounds against the Nuggets last Saturday, but he was much quieter with 11 points and six rebounds in the following game without Embiid.
He’s a boom-or-bust play against the Jazz, but he brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on FanDuel, where he has a 70% Bargain Rating with his salary of $6,200. On DraftKings, he’s just $6,000 but he has a lower projection, placing him outside the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at the position.
Even in a starting role, Reed offers a wide range of outcomes, making him a key inflection point on Thursday’s slate. He’s not necessarily a must-own, but his upside at his mid-range salary does seem to make him a great fit in GPP tournaments.
Fast Break
Even with Evan Mobley back, Jarrett Allen has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has 16 straight double-doubles and has averaged 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.42 FanDuel points per minute over that impressive run of production.
John Collins and Kelly Oynyk are both solid value plays at center in their matchup with the Embiid-less Sixers. Olynyk is only $3,900 on DraftKings, where he has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center and a 95% Bargain Rating.
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