The NBA is ready to stuff this Saturday with 10 games spread throughout the day as Rivals Week continues. Four of the games tip off during the day with six games making up the main DFS slate on Saturday night. Of the 12 teams in the player pool for those contests, half are playing for the second day in a row. The Hornets, Mavs, Clippers, Bucks, Pelicans and Spurs all played Friday as well, so keep an extra close eye out for the injury reports from those teams.
Multiple key players are dealing with injuries that could impact the slate. As availability updates come out throughout the day, be sure to refresh the NBA Models for the latest adjustments leading up to tip off.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
On Friday, Luka Doncic was forced to face the Hawks without his teammate Kyrie Irving (thumb), who missed his second straight game. Luka did more than just get by, exploding for 73 points while leading his team to a five-point victory. He finished with 101.5 DraftKings points and 94.5 FanDuel points.
While Irving’s status for Saturday’s matchup with the Kings is uncertain, Doncic has been so amazing lately that he’s worth considering as a pay-up play either way. He has poured in over 30 points in each of his last seven games and has exceeded his incredibly high salary-based expectations in each of his last four since returning from injury. He has averaged 2.03 DraftKings points and 1.91 FanDuel points per minute in those four games.
Of all the players on the slate, Luka has the highest median, floor, and ceiling projection on DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus and the most Pts/Sal of any player in the pool on both sites.
On Saturday at home against Sacramento, he has a usage projection of 38.14% which is almost exactly his season average with Kyrie off the floor. In that situation, he has averaged 1.80 DraftKings points and 1.66 FanDuel points per minute. If Kyrie is out again, Doncic is almost a must-play, but even if Kyrie returns, Luka has been putting on enough of a show to still deserve consideration.
Value
In a very favorable matchup, Mike Conley has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and offers a low-cost alternative on this star-studded slate. Conley and the Timberwolves face the Spurs, who have been one of the best matchups in the league for opposing point guards all season. Minnesota also has the highest pace differential on Saturday’s slate.
The veteran point guard missed two games earlier this week with an illness but played 33 minutes in his return on Thursday. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on FanDuel, averaging 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.94 FanDuel points per minute.
Conley had 18 points, four rebounds, four assists and three steals in the most recent meeting of these teams at the beginning of December. If you’re looking for a cheap point guard play, this matchup is enough to make Minnesota Mike a great place to start.
Fast Break
The Warriors are hosting the Lakers in their Rivalry Week contest Saturday night, and Stephen Curry has a history of putting up big games against Los Angeles. He comes into this contest on a nice roll, exceeding salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 on FanDuel, where he has an 87% Bargain Rating. Curry has averaged 1.30 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over those 10 matchups and ranks in the top five in Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on FanDuel.
Especially If Kyrie is out again, Dante Exum is a strong mid-range play at point guard for the Mavs. He returned from a nine-game absence on Wednesday and played just 19 minutes against the Suns but was up to 27 minutes on Friday in Luka’s big game. He started the second half in place of the injured Derrick Jones Jr. (wrist). Exum is a point guard and small forward on DraftKings and a point guard and shooting guard on FanDuel. He especially stands out on FanDuel, where he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard, the highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard and a 94% Bargain Rating.
The Jazz should be a great source of value since they have the highest implied team total on the board, as they face the Hornets (more below). Keyonte George and Kris Dunn have the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards under $5,000 on DraftKings, and their salaries are all the way under $4,000. On FanDuel, the best bargain play projects to be Nick Smith on the other side of that matchup.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
The Lakers have been getting great production for the last few games from D’Angelo Russell, who gets a chance to take on his former team the Warriors on Saturday night. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on FanDuel and the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at point guard on DraftKings. He also has the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard on FanDuel.
Russell has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in eight straight games and seven of those contests on DraftKings as well. He averaged 1.21 DraftKings points and 1.15 FanDuel points per minute during those eight games. He had 29 points on Thursday in his most recent game and has scored over 25 points in five of his last seven.
Both Anthony Davis and LeBron James have been playing through injuries over the past few weeks, and Russell has helped to carry the load. He has a 23.0% usage rate on the season, but in his last 10 games, that rate has increased to 26.0%.
Value
The Jazz snapped a three-game losing streak with a win in Washington on Thursday, and they get a great matchup on Saturday in Charlotte. The Hornets have the worst defensive rating in the NBA, and as mentioned above, the Jazz have the highest implied team total on the board.
Jordan Clarkson brings solid value in this great matchup, and he ranks in the top four in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Clarkson has double-digit points in nine of his last 10 games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of those games on DraftKings. He averaged 1.08 DraftKings points and 1.02 FanDuel points per minute over that span with a 28.1% usage rate in 30.8 minutes per game.
Clarkson went off for 33 points against the Rockets last Saturday in a ceiling game but struggled his next time out with just nine points in a blowout loss to the Pelicans. Despite his volatility, he brings great upside from his mid-range salary on Saturday. He and the rest of the Jazz should be able to put together a strong performance against the Hornets.
Fast Break
Against the Spurs, Anthony Edwards has the highest median and ceiling projection at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He had a couple of lower-scoring games while playing through an illness but bounced back with 38 points in 34 minutes in Wednesday’s win over the Wizards. He followed that with 24 points the next night in a win over the Nets.
Our projections indicate that Malik Monk is lined up for a bounce-back game against the Mavericks. He has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at both point guard and shooting guard on DraftKings and FanDuel. Monk managed just four points on Thursday against the Warriors, but this should be a great matchup for him since the Mavs have given up more DraftKings points per game to opposing shooting guards than any other team in the NBA. He’s a volatile play with a high ceiling coming off the bench for the Kings.
Josh Green has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of shooting guards under $5,000 on FanDuel since he could have an expanded role with Jones and Irving possibly sidelined for the Mavs. On DraftKings, Kevin Huerter has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards on the slate. His salary has slid just under $5,000, but he has double-digit points in four of his last five games with a pair of double-doubles during that span as well.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
Jayson Tatum has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on both sites at the position as well.
Tatum gets a boost for his home matchup against the Clippers since Kristaps Porzingis is doubtful with an ankle injury, and without Porzingis on the floor, Tatum gets an increase of 2.7 percentage points to his usage to a team-high 33.3%. He has produced 1.37 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute without Porzingis on the floor
After a bit of a shooting funk earlier this month, Tatum has found his groove in his last few games. He had 39 points and 11 boards in a huge game against the Mavs on Monday and had 26 points in a blowout win over Miami on Thursday.
Tatum had 30 points in a rout of the Clippers in Los Angeles just before Christmas and will look to put together another big stat line Saturday night. The Celtics will be on their home court for the first time since losing to Denver last Friday.
Value
As a bargain play, Jaden McDaniels can help save some salary while still chipping in some solid numbers. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on DraftKings, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating.
McDaniels is typically a low-usage option for the Wolves, starting 23 straight games with a 16.3% usage rate in his 31.1 minutes per contest. Even though he doesn’t take a ton of shots, he has turned in solid stats lately, scoring at least nine points in eight straight contests with a high mark of 23 points against the Pistons. In those eight games, he has averaged 0.70 DraftKings points and 0.67 FanDuel points per minute while playing 31.4 minutes per game.
While his production rate isn’t going to blow anyone away, his consistent minutes make him productive enough to consider as a cost-saving option at small forward. He is a great play from under $5,000 on DraftKings in this fantasy-friendly matchup against the Spurs.
Fast Break
LeBron James has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on DraftKings, where he has a 91% Bargain Rating. After missing one game with an ankle injury, The King returned with 25 points and 12 assists in 36 minutes on Thursday. He has at least 24 points in five straight games and should enjoy this spotlight matchup against Steph. He has the second-highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at the position behind only Tatum.
On FanDuel, Miles Bridges is a small forward while he is a power forward and center on DraftKings. He projects well in his matchup with the Jazz on both sites and has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards on FanDuel, where he also matches a slate-high 13 Pro Trends.
For the Jazz, Simone Fontecchio continues to be a solid value starter and has exceeded salary-based expectations in four straight games, averaging 0.98 DraftKings points and 0.93 FanDuel points per minute in 26 minutes per game. Like McDaniels, he’s a low-usage option who contributes good non-scoring numbers and plays plenty of minutes. He’s especially underpriced on DraftKings, where he has an 82% Bargain Rating.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
As the Bucks look to bounce back from their loss to the Cavs on Friday, they’ll host the Pelicans, as both teams finish their back-to-backs. The Bucks have the second-highest implied team total on the board, and the game has the second-highest over/under. Despite the tumultuous week the team has had, Giannis Antetokounmpo still stands out as a strong power forward play if you have the salary available. He has the highest median and floor projection at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, where he brings a significant 95% Bargain Rating.
On Friday, Giannis fell just one assist short of a triple-double. If he had managed one more assist, it would have been his third straight triple-double, and it marks the second time in his last five games that he finished just one assist short of that mark.
He has put up great numbers all season, averaging 1.71 DraftKings points and 1.66 FanDuel points per minute, but he has been especially exceptional over the past month, averaging 1.82 DraftKings points and 1.72 FanDuel points per minute while playing 35.9 minutes per game with a 32.5% usage rate.
Value
The Warriors have two strong value plays at power forward in their matchup with the Lakers. Draymond Green has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the fourth-highest on FanDuel. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of his last two games and seems to thrive in big games like this one.
Jonathan Kuminga has also been excellent for the Warriors with at least 20 points in five straight games, highlighted by a 31-point game on Thursday against the Kings. In those five games, Kuminga has averaged 1.47 DraftKings points and 1.39 FanDuel points per minute.
Due to that recent production, Kuminga’s salary has climbed a little bit, leaving Green as the slightly better play on a per-dollar basis. Both are strong options to consider as mid-range power forward plays on Saturday’s slate.
Fast Break
In a week stuffed with impressive high-scoring performances, don’t forget that Karl-Anthony Towns dropped 62 points on Monday against the Hornets. He followed it up with strong games against the Wizards and Nets in the Wolves’ mid-week back-to-back, scoring 27 points in each victory. KAT posted double-doubles in both the Wolves’ wins over the Spurs earlier this season and seems to thrive on going head-to-head with rookie Victor Wembanyama.
Whenever the Jazz are in a good spot, Lauri Markkanen is a play that brings a very high ceiling. In his 13 games in January, Markkanen averaged 1.36 DraftKings points and 1.30 FanDuel points per minute. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in seven of his last 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel and should be set up in another smash spot Saturday in Charlotte.
As has been a recurring theme, the Mavs have the potential for elite value depending on the status of Irving and Jones. Grant Williams has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He could slot into the starting lineup or at least have a much heavier workload if Jones ends up missing this contest.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
The Mavericks-Kings matchup should be a great one for more than just the Luka factor on Saturday night. Domantas Sabonis is another great fantasy option to consider from that game, which has the highest over/under on the slate. Sabonis has the highest ceiling projection at center on DraftKings, even edging out Giannis, and he has the highest median, ceiling and floor projection at center on FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both sites and the second-highest on the whole slate behind only Luka.
Sabonis has been filling up the box score impressively over the last month with a steady diet of double-doubles and triple-doubles. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in 10 of his last 13 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel while producing 1.56 DraftKings points and 1.42 FanDuel points per minute with a 22.5% usage rate in 36.4 minutes per game.
The Mavs are short-handed at multiple positions and may have to go small against the Kings, which should set Sabonis up for a monster game. He had 32 points, 13 rebounds, and six assists against Dallas on Nov. 19, and he has the potential for a similar showing in this rematch in Big D. Sabonis is a strong pivot play if you think Luka will come back to earth but still want to target a high-ceiling option in this matchup.
Value
If you can’t pay up for Sabonis and want to go with a cheaper play at center, John Collins stands out with the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers under $6,500 on FanDuel and a projected Plus/Minus in the top six at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has a 93% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where his salary is just $5,400.
Collins has exceeded salary-based expectations in nine of his last 12 on both DraftKings and FanDuel, producing 1.19 DraftKings points and 1.16 FanDuel points per minute. He is coming off an impressive 22-point, 16-rebound double-double against the Wizards. In a similarly soft matchup against the Hornets, he’s a great mid-range option to consider at either power forward or center.
Fast Break
Anthony Davis brings a very high ceiling whenever the Lakers are in action, and his matchup with the Warriors is no exception. He has the second-highest median, ceiling, and floor projection along with the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Victor Wembanyama is probable for the second night of the Spurs’ back to back, according to coach Gregg Popovich. Wemby has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel and is coming off back-to-back strong double-doubles. He also has multiple blocks in four straight games. He has a 97% Bargain Rating on DraftKings since he’s priced all the way up to $10,300 on FanDuel.
If you have to go cheap at center, Kevon Looney and Mason Plumlee have the highest Projected Plus/Minus of centers under $5,000 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Grant Williams has that spot since he is center-eligible while Naz Reid and Larry Nance are other ultra-cheap plays worth a look on that site.
