The NBA continues its Rivals Week with seven games on the schedule Thursday night. As has been true throughout this week, there are multiple intriguing matchups on the board, led by the national TV doubleheader featuring the Celtics-Heat and the Kings-Warriors in rematches of last year’s playoff series. The Warriors, Heat, Timberwolves and Wizards are playing for the second night in a row, while the Pacers are the only team turning around and playing again on Friday.
Several key players are dealing with injuries that could impact the slate, so keep a close eye out for availability updates throughout the day. As news breaks, be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
The New Year is going great for New York. Jalen Brunson and the Knicks are 9-1 in the 10 games he has played in 2024. Brunson has a 31.3% usage rate over that span and has played 35.9 minutes per game while producing 1.36 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute.
On Thursday’s slate, he has the highest ceiling projection of all point guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has the third-highest median projection at the position on DraftKings, where he also has the third-highest salary and matches 11 Pro Trends, which is more than any other point guard in play.
Brunson has scored 30+ points in five straight games and has added at least seven assists in six of his last seven games. The Knicks’ star has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 10 games on FanDuel and six of his last nine on DraftKings. He projects to be a good play at his price on Thursday as his Knicks welcome in the reigning champion Nuggets.
Value
One of the top teams to target for value on Thursday is the Jazz, who have the highest implied team total on the slate as they visit the Wizards. Washington plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and has the second-worst defensive rating, so the Jazz should pile up points.
Collin Sexton is still dramatically underpriced on DraftKings, where he brings the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of any player on the slate. On FanDuel, he’s more expensive but still has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards. Sexton brings a 94% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, where he is especially hard to pass up at just $6,600.
In each of his last seven games, Sexton has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He leads Utah with a 30.0% usage rate during that span and has produced 1.46 DraftKings points and 1.43 FanDuel points per minute. In each of those seven games, he has at least 20 points and has averaged 25.7 points in 27.3 minutes while chipping in 5.4 assists and 2.6 rebounds as well.
Fast Break
Stephen Curry vs. De’Aaron Fox will be the spotlight matchup in the later showcase game, but neither brings quite as high a ceiling as Brunson. Curry is worth noting on FanDuel, though, where he brings a 94% Bargain Rating and the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position. Curry also has the highest median and floor projection at point guard on DraftKings.
Jamal Murray has flashed a very high ceiling on the Nuggets’ current road trip. He had huge games against the Celtics and Pacers, with over 30 points in each game and more than 10 FanDuel points above salary-based expectations. He started the trip with a double-double in Philadelphia as well, so he can contribute in multiple ways. He’s a little cheaper than the other elite options on the board but still brings a very high ceiling.
With Tyrese Haliburton (hamstring) out, T.J. McConnell and Andrew Nembhard will fill in at point guard for the up-tempo Pacers. McConnell will be facing his former team, the 76ers, and has been the better fantasy play, although Nembhard usually gets the start. Their salaries are similar, but I’d lean toward McConnell off the bench as the better value play on Thursday.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
At shooting guard, Jaylen Brown has the highest median projection on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the second-highest ceiling projection at the position, behind only Sexton. Brown has more support from the rest of his team than some of the other top shooting guard options, but he still has been turning in excellent numbers lately for the Celtics.
Brown has exceeded salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in six of his last eight games while producing 1.31 DraftKings points and 1.28 FanDuel points per minute with a 29.6% usage rate and an average of 32.7 minutes per game.
He had a strong game against the Heat earlier this season and will look for another good stat line in South Beach.
Value
The Kings have gotten great production off the bench from Malik Monk, who has emerged as one of the top contenders for the Sixth Man of the Year Award. He is one of the best guard values on the board at either point guard or shooting guard, checking in with the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both spots on DraftKings and the second-highest at shooting guard on FanDuel.
Monk should thrive against the Warriors and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of the teams’ last two meetings this season. He had 21 points on Nov. 28 in their most recent meeting to help guide the Kings to a one-point victory.
In his 11 games in January, Monk has averaged 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.13 FanDuel points per minute while playing 29 minutes per contest. He was in a bit of a shooting slump but went 4-for-6 from the field in his most recent game, so he may be ready to break out with a big game on Thursday.
Fast Break
After battling an illness and posting a couple of down games, Anthony Edwards bounced back with 38 points in 34 minutes in Wednesday’s win over the Wizards. As long as the injury report on the second half of the Wolves’ back-to-back doesn’t have any surprises, he should be a good top-tier play against the Nets on Thursday.
Jordan Clarkson doesn’t project quite as high as his teammate Sexton, but he’s also one of the top values in the backcourt. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and ranks in the top four at both shooting guard and point guard on FanDuel. Facing the Wizards is a favorable enough matchup to make both guards viable value options.
With Zach LaVine (ankle) sidelined again, Ayo Dosunmu is getting more work for the Bulls and is a strong value option to consider Thursday when Chicago visits the Lakers. Dosunmu has exceeded salary-based expectations on FanDuel in four of his last five games, with double-digit points in each of those contests. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all shooting guards under $5,000 on DraftKings and the second-highest in that price range at point guard.
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NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel and the highest ceiling projection at small forward on both sites comes from Lauri Markkanen. Markkanen will be looking to bounce back from scoring just 11 points in a tough loss on Tuesday to New Orleans, but our projections are very high on him in this smash spot against the Wizards.
In his 12 games this month, Markkanen has produced 1.34 DraftKings points and 1.28 FanDuel points per minute while playing a team-leading 31.4 minutes per game. He had scored 22 points or more in eight straight games before Tuesday’s letdown, and he should be able to have no trouble bouncing back to that level of production against the Wizards.
He brings an extremely high ceiling in a great matchup, especially for a player with a salary of only $8,000 on DraftKings and $8,400 on FanDuel.
Value
No one comes close to matching Markkanen’s Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on this slate, but if you need a more affordable option with good upside, his teammate Simone Fontecchio has exceeded salary-based expectations in three straight games.
The Italian has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all small forwards under $5,000 on FanDuel. On DraftKings, Fontecchio can play either forward spot and ranks in the top seven in Projected Plus/Minus at both positions. He also brings an 87% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Fontecchio has started 13 straight games for the Jazz and has increased his production to 0.96 DraftKings points and 0.91 FanDuel points per minute over the last three games.
Fast Break
For as long as LaVine is out, DeMar DeRozan will have a high ceiling for the Bulls. On Thursday against the Lakers, he has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Typically, DeRozan gets massive minutes and usage whenever LaVine is sidelined, giving him both a very high floor and a high ceiling.
Since the Sixers are facing the up-tempo Pacers, Tobias Harris is a solid midrange target to consider. With the rest of the starting lineup healthy, his usage can fluctuate, but he still brings a high ceiling in up-tempo matchups like this one. He is listed as questionable, though, due to illness. If Harris is sidelined, Kelly Oubre, Danuel House, or even KJ Martin would be strong values to consider. The matchup is favorable enough to make Harris’s availability a key situation to watch.
With a change at head coach, the Wizards may shake up their rotation starting on Thursday night, and one candidate for increased playing time is Bilal Coulibaly, who they drafted with a top-10 pick last Spring. The 19-year-old has shown some flashes of a high ceiling and is an interesting option to watch and possibly even take a flier on vs. the Jazz.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Both Anthony Davis (Achilles) and LeBron James (ankle) are questionable for Thursday, which they have been most of the season. James missed Tuesday’s game, though, so there’s more or a real danger of him missing a second straight game on Thursday. Whether LeBron is back or not, Davis should be a good play against the Bulls as long as he plays through his own issue. He has the highest median and ceiling projection of all power forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Davis has been a double-double machine this season, with 36 double-doubles and one triple-double in his 43 games. He has averaged 25.0 points and 12.2 rebounds while producing 1.49 DraftKings points and 1.51 FanDuel points per minute. He has stayed right at those averages over the last month while posting a 27.2% usage rate in 36.1 minutes per game.
Value
Most of the top value projections at power forward go to expensive options like Markkanen and DeRozan (discussed above) or Pascal Siakam (discussed below). One good option that stands out in the midrange, though, is Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga, who has continued to put up good numbers even with Draymond Green back in the mix.
After starting 14 games, Kuminga has been great in the second unit for his last four games. He scored at least 20 points in each of those four games and exceeded salary-based expectations, producing 1.48 DraftKings points and 1.39 FanDuel points per minute. Even if he can’t maintain that elite level of per-minute production, he should continue to get enough work to be a great investment of around $6,000 on Thursday.
Fast Break
On Monday in Dallas, Jayson Tatum shook off his recent shooting slump and dropped 39 points to go with 11 rebounds and five assists against the Mavs. Tatum’s elite scoring ability gives him a high ceiling in every matchup, and Monday’s performance could be the start of him getting back on track as an elite DFS option.
Pascal Siakam ranks in the top six in Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He had 16 points and 10 rebounds in a loss to the Nuggets on Tuesday. While Haliburton is out, Siakam will need to continue to step into a larger role while adjusting to his new team. This matchup against the 76ers should allow him to produce good numbers on Thursday, especially if Harris is ultimately ruled out.
If you have to go cheap at power forward, the best bargains project to once again come from the Jazz. Kelly Olynyk has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all power forwards under $5,000 on FanDuel, and he’s an even better play on DraftKings, where his salary is only $3,600, and he has a 94% Bargain Rating. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings, behind only Markkanen and DeRozan.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
Joel Embiid is on an incredible run of production and showing no signs at all of slowing down. With an up-tempo, high-scoring game environment against the Pacers, he appears poised for success again on Thursday. Embiid has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection on the entire slate on both FanDuel and DraftKings, where he is a bit more affordable and comes with a 93% Bargain Rating.
Embiid is coming off a ridiculous 70-point explosion against the Spurs on Monday, in which he produced jaw-dropping totals of 105.5 DraftKings points and 104.1 FanDuel points. Not only does he have that kind of ceiling, but he has also been remarkably consistent with 30+ points in each of his last 21 contests. Over that span, he has produced 2.00 DraftKings points and 1.96 FanDuel points per minute with a 41.3% usage rate in 34.3 minutes per game.
Even with other good center options like Nikola Jokic, Domantas Sabonis and Davis on the slate, no one comes close to matching Embiid’s consistency and his ceiling. Especially when you add in what should be a great matchup, Embiid becomes one of the top pay-up plays to build around.
Value
If you can’t afford Embiid, Nikola Vucevic is the best value play at the next tier down the salary structure. He has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on both DraftKings and FanDuel behind just Sabonis and Embiid.
Vucevic comes into this matchup with the Lakers after posting seven double-doubles in his last eight games and producing 1.32 DraftKings points and 1.26 FanDuel points per minute over that eight-game stretch. Vucevic gets a usage and production boost with LaVine off the floor and should continue to be a big part of the Bulls’ game plan for as long as LaVine is sidelined. Especially if AD is limited or out, he could be in a great in the late game on Thursday.
Fast Break
Sabonis actually has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at center on FanDuel and DraftKings. If it wasn’t for Embiid’s other-worldly production, Sabonis would probably be my top play at the position. If you want to pivot away from Embiid, if you expect a letdown, or are just looking for some leverage, Sabonis is a strong option who always stuffs the stat sheet and has produced above salary-based expectations in four straight games and nine of his last 12.
Walker Kessler has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers on DraftKings, just edging out his teammate Olynyk. Kessler is more expensive on FanDuel but has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all centers under $7,000 on both sites.
If you’re overloaded on the Jazz, Nic Claxton is another strong mid-range play worth considering. He continues to regularly out-produce salary-based expectations. On FanDuel, he has an Average Plus/Minus of +5.4 FanDuel points while producing 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.12 FanDuel points per minute and averaging 34.1 minutes per game over his last nine contests.
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