Conference Championship Sunday kicks off in the AFC, with Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson set to do battle in Baltimore. The Ravens are listed as 3.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 44.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
To the surprise of no one, Lamar Jackson comes in as the most expensive player on this showdown slate. What’s interesting is the price gaps between him and the rest of the player pool. He’s $1,600 more expensive than Patrick Mahomes and nearly $3,000 more than the third-most expensive player in Travis Kelce.
From a raw points perspective, Jackson runs away with the cake. He has the highest median projection by over three points and the highest ceiling projection by over six. However, from a Points/Salary standpoint, he appears as just a fine play.
This Chiefs defense has allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, they’ve faced few quarterbacks as talented as Jackson.
Josh Allen profiles similarly, solely because he can rack up fantasy points on the ground and through the air at an elite level. Allen ran for 72 yards and two touchdowns while throwing for 186 yards and a score in the Divisional Round. Jackson showed his dual-threat ability to a tee last week, running for 100 yards and two scores while throwing for 152 yards and two scores.
Jackson has been successful against man-heavy and blitz-heavy defense, and Kansas City checks both of those boxes. In past matchups with Jackson, Steve Spagnuolo has dialed up the blitz, blitzing Jackson on 44% and 43% of dropbacks in the past two matchups.
In Jackson’s three games against Spagnuolo defenses, he’s totaled 236 rushing yards and three rushing touchdowns on 33 carries, averaging almost 80 yards and a score on the ground per game. Kansas City has allowed the fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Jackson checks in as the top option, and he should have success with his legs here.
Patrick Mahomes comes in as the other player priced in the five figures. It’s been a pedestrian stretch for Mahomes, as he hasn’t topped 21 DraftKings points in a game since Week 7. In the 11 games since, Mahomes has averaged 16.48 DraftKings points per game.
A lot of Kansas City’s offense this year has been predicated on gashing teams between the numbers. That’s been especially effective the past two weeks, as Buffalo and Miami’s defenses have been ravaged by injuries. Baltimore has been stellar in the middle of the field, boasting elite linebackers and elite safeties. That could spell trouble for Mahomes and the Chiefs.
Baltimore has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Mahomes hasn’t been very effective against top defenses this year. Mahomes is a fine option, but I’m not running to plug him in to start my lineups.
Travis Kelce finally came to life last week, catching five of six targets for 75 yards and two touchdowns. I’ve been singing Kelce’s praises in the past two weeks, as he had two advantageous matchups with Miami and Buffalo.
This matchup is far less appetizing, with Baltimore allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to tight ends. Kelce got to feast on Miami and Buffalo’s injured linebackers and safeties. Now he’ll have his hands full with Kyle Hamilton and Roquan Smith. Mahomes leans on Kelce in big spots, but I’m not rushing to play the big man with this tough matchup.
A lot of Kansas City’s offensive “resurgence” has been due to Isiah Pacheco. He’s been leaned on heavily over the past three games, with 66 total opportunities. Kansas City had limited play volume last week, but Pacheco still took 15 carries for 97 yards and a score while catching one ball for 14 yards.
Baltimore has been a little leaky on the ground as of late, but they match up well with what Kansas City is likely to throw at them. Kansas City has been running more out of heavy personnel, while Baltimore has allowed just 3.4 yards per carry when they have loaded boxes. Pacheco will likely see a lot of volume as Jerick McKinnon remains out.
Rashee Rice was noticeably limited in last week’s game but appears good to go this week. He ran a route on 76% of the dropbacks last week, catching all four of his targets for 47 yards. Baltimore has allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to wide receivers, as they’ve been an elite defense all around. They’ve been stout against top receivers, which is bad news for Rice.
It doesn’t get much better for Baltimore’s top option either, as Zay Flowers likely has a tougher matchup than Rice. Kansas City has allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, including the fewest fantasy points per game to top receivers.
Mark Andrews is also set to be back, and Flowers has just a 19% target rate per route run with Andrews on the field compared to 22% with him off.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
You’re probably wondering if I actually like anyone playing in this game. Finally, I can talk about someone I’m high on. Gus Edwards had 10 carries for 40 yards last week and caught one of two targets for -1 yards. Justice Hill ran well, and Dalvin Cook mixed in towards the end. However, I’m very high on Edwards.
He left last week’s game early in the fourth quarter with a hand injury and was kept out for precautionary reasons. In past big games, like Week 17 against Miami, we’ve seen Baltimore lean on Edwards, and I’m expecting more of the same. I don’t think there’s been some hierarchy change. Justice Hill will continue to mix in and take the passing-down work, but Edwards is still the main man. I like both backs.
Edwards is preferred as Kansas City has struggled mightily against power runs this year, and they’ve allowed the seventh-most yards per carry to opposing backs as a whole.
Kansas City has allowed the second-fewest yards per target to opposing tight ends, which makes Andrews’ return murky for him and Isaiah Likely. Neither one of the tight ends stands out, but Andrews would be the preferred option if forced to choose one. Likely hasn’t flashed much of a ceiling without finding the end zone multiple times, but Andrews could return and be looked at heavily by Lamar.
The pricing on the Baltimore receivers is interesting, as Rashod Bateman comes in as the cheapest after running the most routes of anyone not named Zay Flowers. Bateman ran a route on 72% of the dropbacks, with Nelson Agholor at 62% and Odell Beckham Jr. at 27%.
The Chiefs’ heavy use of man coverage could benefit Beckham Jr, as he has a 27% target rate per route against man coverage compared to 19% against zone. Beckham Jr’s route participation is worrisome, as he’s not much of a run blocker, and Baltimore doesn’t like looking one-dimensional with him out there. Bateman is my favorite option, with Beckham Jr. following.
The Kansas City wide receiver room remains a continuous headache. Marquez Valdes-Scantling usurped Justin Watson in routes last week, running 14 routes compared to 11 for Watson. Richie James ran five routes but could easily be phased out, with Kadarius Toney likely returning.
Mecole Hardman fumbled on both of his touches, so there’s a good chance he sees a diminished role. Skyy Moore could be back this week, but he didn’t practice Wednesday, so I’d expect him to be out. Watson and Toney would be my two favorites (price considered), with Hardman close behind, especially if Toney is limited.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $500 deposit match.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Noah Gray ($1,800 on DraftKings, $7,000 on FanDuel): Noah Gray saw a bump in playing time, going up to 60% of the snaps last week. Gray is viable, but I prefer Watson or Toney in the same price range.
