Seven NBA games are set to stuff Saturday night full of fantasy basketball action, providing a 14-team player pool for DFS contests. Of those 14 teams, the Hawks, Hornets, 76ers, and Spurs are on the second game of a back-to-back, while the Rockets and Wizards will turn around and play again on Sunday.
As usual, several key players are dealing with injuries that could impact this slate. Watch carefully for availability updates throughout the day, especially from the four teams playing for the second day in a row. Approaching tip off, be sure to refresh the NBA Models throughout the day for the latest adjustments and monitor the news hub for status updates.
Let’s dive into some of the top plays on the slate using the FantasyLabs tools and projections.
Also, don’t forget that for large-field tournaments, you can utilize our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the day after this article is posted. The NBA DFS landscape changes quickly.
Consult the NBA Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
NBA DFS Point Guard Picks
Stud
Without multiple key supporting cast members, Donovan Mitchell has been carrying the Cavaliers for the past few games. Cleveland has won six straight coming into their matchup against the Hawks on Saturday, and Mitchell has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all point guards and shooting guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also has the highest ceiling projection and median projection on both sites at both positions.
Part of his great projections is the favorable matchup against Atlanta, who plays at the fifth-fastest pace in the NBA and gives the Cavs the highest pace differential on the slate.
Mitchell has produced 1.36 DraftKings points and 1.35 FanDuel points per minute on the season, but over his eight games since returning from a four-game absence, he has been even better, producing 1.50 DraftKings points and 1.54 FanDuel points per minute. He has over 30 points in each of his last three games dating back to the Cavs’ trip to Paris. If you’re looking to pay up for a big-name guard in a smash spot on Saturday, Spida should be at the top of your list.
Value
The Spurs are expected to have Victor Wembanyama back in the rotation after he sat out Friday’s game with an ankle injury, but whether Wemby has played or not, Tre Jones has been turning in very solid stats since reclaiming his spot in the Spurs’ starting lineup. In a great game environment, he has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus of point guards on FanDuel and the second-highest on DraftKings, behind only Mitchell.
Jones has started the last eight games for the Spurs, averaging 29.9 minutes per game with a 17.4% usage rate. He has produced 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.03 FanDuel points per minute and exceeded salary-based expectations in six of those games on FanDuel and five of those contests on DraftKings. He had 30 points last Saturday against the Bulls in his best game of the season and also had 16 points on Friday in a good performance.
In their matchup with the Wizards, the Spurs have the third-highest implied team total on the board. Washington still ranks first in the NBA in pace and second-to-last in defensive rating, which should lead to plenty of points produced in this matchup. Jones will also get a boost from facing his brother Tyus Jones, who is the starting point guard for the Wizards.
Fast Break
The Knicks’ recent surge is being fueled by Jalen Brunson, who has exceeded salary-based expectations in five of his last seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel while producing 1.34 DraftKings points and 1.27 FanDuel points per minute. Brunson and the Knicks face former teammate Immanuel Quickley and the rebuilding Raptors on Saturday night in Toronto, and Brunson will likely carry his typically heavy workload.
The Rockets show well in our models this Saturday for their home matchup against the Jazz. Fred VanVleet has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. He has scored at least 20 points in four of his last six games, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those four contests, including the Rockets’ most recent game on Wednesday against Brunson’s Knicks.
With De’Anthony Melton (back) still sidelined by a lumbar spine stress response, Patrick Beverley has stepped into a larger role and chipped in solid fantasy production as a bargain play at point guard for the Sixers. Beverley has played over 26 minutes in four straight games and five of his last six, and he has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those five contests. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of point guards under $5,000 on FanDuel, where he has an 89% Bargain Rating. On DraftKings where he is priced up, Craig Porter Jr. and Amen Thompson are attractive bargain alternatives.
NBA DFS Shooting Guard Picks
Stud
One of the key return pieces in the Donovan Mitchell trade was Collin Sexton, who has stepped up lately with great production for Utah, a team that has gone 12-3 over their last 15 games. In those 15 games, Sexton has stepped up with 1.35 DraftKings points and 1.33 FanDuel points per minute over those 15 games with a 28.9% usage rate.
In Saturday’s matchup, Sexton has the fifth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating at just $6,100. On Both DraftKings and FanDuel, he has a top-six ceiling projection at the position.
Sexton has exceeded salary-based expectations in five straight games coming into this matchup in Houston. In those five games, he has cranked his production up to 1.55 DraftKings points and 1.50 FanDuel points per minute with a 31.1% usage rate. He brings a high ceiling at his mid-range salary.
Value
Alongside Mitchell in the Cavs’ rotation, Sam Merrill has emerged since the injury to Darius Garland (jaw). With Caris LeVert (wrist) doubtful after playing nine straight games, Merrill is poised for even more work in this great matchup against the Hawks.
Merrill has scored double-digit points in six of his last seven games and has exceeded salary-based expectations in each of those seven games. He has a 19.1% usage in his 24 minutes per game over that span while producing 1.11 DraftKings points and 0.98 FanDuel points per minute.
With LeVert out of the mix, Merrill should have more opportunities on Saturday. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on DraftKings and the third-highest on FanDuel. He’s a strong play under $5,000, who not only brings a high ceiling but also allows you to spend up in other spots.
Fast Break
Anthony Edwards has the second-highest ceiling projection at shooting guard behind only Mitchell on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Edwards and the Timberwolves have a huge showdown with the Thunder on Saturday night, and he comes in on a nice roll with 27+ points in four of five games.
Facing his former team, Immanuel Quickley has the third-highest ceiling projection of all shooting guards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He has been heavily involved and very productive since joining the Raptors but is looking to bounce back after a down game on Thursday against the Bulls.
Jalen Green is also in the top six in Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel. His 27.3% usage rate this season gives him a high ceiling, and he has double-digit points in 12 straight games despite his sometimes inefficient shooting performances.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NBA DFS Small Forward Picks
Stud
The Bulls will be without Zach LaVine (ankle) again, which means more work is coming for DeMar DeRozan and the rest of Chicago’s other starters. DeRozan has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at small forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel, and his salary has dropped a little bit since LaVine’s last return, making him a good value with a high ceiling against the Grizzlies. The Bulls are tied with the Cavs for the biggest pace differential on this slate.
DeRozan has produced 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.04 FanDuel points per minute on the season with a 25.7% usage rate. With LaVine off the floor, his usage climbs to 26.5% and his production increases to 1.12 DraftKings points and 1.13 FanDuel points per minute.
DeRozan plays 37 minutes a game, so that bump in production makes him one of the best small forwards on the board, especially against the short-handed Grizzlies.
Value
The Grizzlies continue to be very short-handed in the backcourt on the other side of that Saturday matchup against the Bulls. As a result, Luke Kennard and Vince Williams Jr. are both strong plays. Kennard is the better value with a top-six Projected Plus/Minus at shooting guard on both DraftKings and FanDuel and brings flexibility with eligibility at point guard at DraftKings and small forward on FanDuel.
Kennard has scored double-digit points in five straight games, exceeding salary-based expectations in each of those five contests. He has averaged 29.6 minutes per game with a 16.1% usage rate over that span, producing 0.92 DraftKings points and 0.83 FanDuel points per minute. While his rates aren’t outstanding, he is getting enough volume to be a very solid value play, and he brings a high ceiling since he can explode for a big number if his shot starts dropping.
Williams has been excellent in five of his last six games, exceeding salary-based expectations on FanDuel and producing multiple ceiling games. He has averaged a team-high 33.5 minutes over those last six games with 0.96 DraftKings points and 1.01 FanDuel points per minute.
Fast Break
R.J. Barrett has also been a good fit for the Raptors, and he exceeded salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games. He has played a team-high 35 minutes per game with a 23.7% usage rate over that stretch while producing 1.14 DraftKings points and 1.11 FanDuel points per minute. Barrett’s usage also jumps a team-high 2.2 percentage points with the recently traded Pascal Siakam off the floor, so his production should trend up moving forward.
Another member of the Bulls with more work coming his way in LaVine’s absence is Patrick Williams, who has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and power forward on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Williams has produced 0.73 FanDuel points and 0.73 DraftKings points per minute without LaVine on the floor this season.
The Spurs have been giving more playing time to Julian Champagnie, who has started each of the last 14 games and played an average of 19 minutes per game. The 22-year-old has had mixed results overall but has at least nine points in each of his last three games, including a 15-point outburst against the Hawks. In this fast-paced matchup against the Wizards, Champagnie brings lots of upside for a bargain play.
NBA DFS Power Forward Picks
Stud
Whenever the Jazz get in a groove, Lauri Markkanen is the maestro in the middle of the action. He has outproduced salary-based expectations in six of his last seven games, producing 1.55 DraftKings points and 1.48 FanDuel points while playing 32.1 minutes per game and boasting a 25.4% usage rate. He has nine rebounds or more in each of those seven games, including five double-doubles.
Markkanen has the highest ceiling projection of all small forwards and all power forwards on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He also represents good value with a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at both positions on both sites. He has a 92% Bargain Rating on DraftKings and is a great centerpiece to build around Saturday night.
Value
Another Spurs play with good upside against the Wizards is Jeremy Sochan, and the second-year player seems to actually be more comfortable with Tre Jones in the lineup playing point rather than trying to carry that workload on his own. He has the fourth-highest Projected Plus/Minus at power forward on DraftKings along with a 94% Bargain Rating, On FanDuel, he brings additional point guard eligibility.
This should be a great matchup for Sochan, who has scored double-digit points in six of his last seven contests and exceeded salary-based expectations in four of his last five. In those five games, Sochan averaged 1.04 DraftKings points and 1.06 FanDuel points per minute while playing a team-high 31.8 minutes per contest. He has had good rebound and assist numbers in those minutes, coming up just short of a double-double in multiple games. In this matchup with Washington, he should be in a smash spot set up for a big return at his $5,400 salary on DraftKings.
Fast Break
The Grizzlies will have to continue to rely on Jaren Jackson Jr., who had 36 points in only 27 minutes in a tough loss to the Timberwolves on Thursday. His ceiling is extremely high since Memphis is desperate for offensive production, and he has had a solid floor with at least 20+ points in five of his last six games. He has a top-five Projected Plus/Minus at power forward and center on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Deni Avdija has been one of the best Wizards producers lately in a complementary role with a lower volume than Jordan Poole and Kyle Kuzma but more consistent non-scoring production. Avdija has a top-seven Projected Plus/Minus at both small forward and power forward on FanDuel, where he has a 68% Bargain Rating.
Timberwolves forward Jaden McDaniels has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus of power forwards under $5,000 on FanDuel behind only Patrick Williams. On DraftKings, Simone Fontecchio and Georges Niang follow Williams in that price bracket and stand out as strong value plays.
NBA DFS Center Picks
Stud
After missing three games with knee inflammation, Joel Embiid has resumed his rampage across the league. He has the highest median, ceiling, and floor projection of all players on the slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He’s a better value on DraftKings, where he has a 93% Bargain Rating, but he can be a great building block on both sites.
Embiid has poured in 30+ points in 19 straight games dating way back to Nov. 17. Over that span, he averaged 36.9 points, 11.4 boards, 6.0 assists, 1.9 blocks, and 1.4 steals to produce 1.97 DraftKings points and 1.93 FanDuel points per minute.
In addition to his dominant form, Embiid has an amazing matchup against the Hornets, who have been a juicy matchup for opposing centers all season. Embiid had 42 points and 15 rebounds in under 30 minutes when he faced them earlier this season, and he should be in a spot to post more big numbers on Saturday.
The only issue with Embiid is that there’s another big number involved in building around him- his salary. He’s the most expensive player on the board on Saturday, so if you build on ‘Biid, you’ll have to be sure to value shop in other spots.
Value
In the Grizzlies new-look rotation, Xavier Tillman Sr. is a solid mid-range play against the Bulls. He has scored double-digit points in each of his last four games included in DraftKings main contests, exceeding salary-based expectations on both DraftKings and FanDuel in each of those games.
Tillman has averaged 0.93 DraftKings points and 0.97 FanDuel points per minute on the season and has improved to 1.01 DraftKings points and 0.99 FanDuel points per minute in January. He has a 31.0-minute projection for this matchup with Chicago, and he’ll be a solid value play if he continues to produce at that rate.
Fast Break
Alperen Sengun has the highest Projected Plus/Minus on the entire slate and is a great play at center as well. He has exceeded salary-based expectations in eight of his last 11 games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. During that span, he averaged 1.32 DraftKings points and 1.31 FanDuel points per minute while playing 33.2 minutes per game.
Just behind Sengun, Jarrett Allen also has very high ratings across the board as a value play in the middle. He has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus on the whole slate on FanDuel and the third-highest on DraftKings. Allen posted 10 straight double-doubles in his last 10 games and thrived with frontcourt mate Evan Mobley (knee) sidelined.
If you have to go cheap at center, Walker Kessler is extremely cheap on DraftKings, with a 98% Bargain Rating and just a $4,300 salary. Marvin Bagley III is also an intriguing value play after a 20-point, 11-rebound double-double in his Wizards debut. If Daniel Gafford (concussion, questionable) is out again, Bagley will have a very high ceiling against the Spurs and could be one of the best value plays on the board.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Jan. 2): Caris LeVert is a DraftKings Lock
NBA DFS (Wednesday, Jan. 25): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS (Monday, Jan. 30): Top Model Picks and Value Plays on DraftKings and FanDuel
NBA DFS Picks Breakdown (Monday, Feb. 6): Target Nets and Mavericks for Value
