The Player Models are the lifeblood of our NFL DFS product. They house our projections for each player, but that’s just the beginning of what you’ll find inside. After all, a projection is just part of the equation: salary, ceiling, and projected ownership all factor into which players stand out as the best plays each week.
Let’s dive into our models and look at a few players with the highest ceilings and values for this week’s slate.
Note: Projections and Leverages Scores/Ratings may change throughout the week after this article is posted. Consult the Player Models directly for any updates as we get closer to lock.
And don’t forget about the tools that FantasyLabs has to offer, like our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 300 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to hand-build your lineups.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Top Ceiling: Lamar Jackson vs. Houston Texans – $7,900 on DraftKings, $8,700 on FanDuel
Lamar Jackson finished the season as the clear MVP frontrunner. He also had the last two weeks off since the Ravens wrapped up the bye week with their Week 17 win over the Dolphins. He should come into Saturday’s matchup rested and ready to roll, and he brings the top median and ceiling projection at quarterback this week in the FantasyLabs projections and THE BLITZ projections on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
In his 16 games this season, Jackson averaged 229.9 passing yards and 51.3 rushing yards per game, and those numbers increased in his eight home games to 254.9 passing yards and 54.4 rushing yards per game. Jackson threw 24 touchdowns and just seven interceptions while adding five rushing scores. He finished the season with an impressive run of performances, culminating in his five-touchdown, 321-yard passing performance in the Ravens’ home rout of the Dolphins.
Jackson seemed to get more comfortable in coach Todd Monken’s system as the season went on and mastered it in his last few games. He could also get an added boost this week from the potential return of Mark Andrews (ankle), who would give him another top option in the passing game alongside rookie Zay Flowers, who is returning from missing the regular-season finale with an injury.
In a system in which he has flourished with his receiving corps fully healthy, Jackson should be able to pick apart the Texans, who allowed an average of 256.4 passing yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks also had seven rushing scores against Houston in 18 games this season.
With his added rushing potential and a home game in a fairly favorable matchup, Jackson is clearly the top pay-up quarterback in our models this week.
Top Value: Brock Purdy vs. Green Bay Packers – $6,500 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
The 49ers also show up very well in our models this week since they have the highest implied team total of the weekend in their home matchup against Green Bay. Brock Purdy has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all quarterbacks on DraftKings in the FantasyLabs projections and in Chris Raybon’s projections. On FanDuel, he ranks second behind only Jackson in each of those projections.
Like Jackson, Purdy sat out the regular-season finale. In his 16 games, he averaged 267.5 passing yards and threw for 31 touchdowns, along with 11 interceptions. He averaged 309.4 passing yards in his seven home games, throwing 13 touchdowns with a 72.1% completion percentage. Although Purdy and the 49ers lost to Jackson’s Ravens at home in Week 16, they bounced back with a road win in Washington to secure the top seed in the NFC.
The Packers gave up 403 passing yards in their win in Dallas last week. Although most of that production came after the game was decided, the secondary didn’t inspire much confidence. They have allowed 300+ passing yards in three of their last five games, along with 10 passing touchdowns over that span.
On DraftKings, Purdy and Patrick Mahomes are the only quarterbacks who match four Pro Trends. On FanDuel, he has a 69% Bargain Rating and the second-best Opponents Plus/Minus on the slate.
Purdy has a great group of skill players to work with and a good matchup. He hasn’t been as consistently excellent as Jackson but he is a great pivot play if you decide to go with more value at quarterback to spend up in other spots.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Top Ceiling: Christian McCaffrey vs. Green Bay Packers – $8,800 on DraftKings, $10,800 on FanDuel
After two weeks of rest, Christian McCaffrey is back to dominate the running back projections this week. In an evenly-blended aggregate of Raybon’s, FantasyLabs, and THE BLITZ, CMC has the highest ceiling, median, and floor projection at the position by a wide margin.
He matches an incredible 15 Pro Trends on FanDuel, while no other player on the entire slate matches more than eight. On DraftKings, he also matches a slate-leading 12 Pro Trends and comes with a 99% Bargain Rating. Since he is so much cheaper on DraftKings, he not only has the highest raw projections, but he also brings the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position by a wide margin.
McCaffrey was dominant in his first full season with coach Kyle Shanahan, producing 21 touchdowns in 16 games and averaging 91.2 rushing yards and 35.3 receiving yards per contest. He showed all season long that he has an unmatchable high ceiling and also a very solid floor. He found the end zone in almost every game and got so much volume that he rarely failed to produce a huge number.
The Packers run defense ranked in the middle of the NFL this season. Opposing running backs had 15 touchdowns while averaging 94.1 rushing yards and 29.1 receiving yards per game. Those yardage totals indicate that there should be space for McCaffrey to run wild.
As usual, he’s a great play to build around this weekend, and he especially makes sense on DraftKings, where his salary isn’t nearly as elevated compared to the other options at the position.
Top Value: Devin Singletary – $5,700 on DraftKings, $6,400 on FanDuel
While he can’t touch CMC’s season-long production, Devin Singletary is another clear top running back to consider this weekend. He comes at a huge discount compared to other options at the position, ranking ninth in salary at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In the aggregated projections, Singletary has the second-highest Projected Plus/Minus at running back, behind only CMC on DraftKings and Rachaad White on FanDuel.
Singletary has exceeded salary-based expectations on DraftKings in four straight games and nine of his last 11. He has six touchdowns in those 11 games and has topped 60 yards rushing in eight of those contests, including each of his last four.
He is also regularly involved in the Texans offense as a receiver, hauling in multiple receptions in six of his last seven games. There is some added risk rolling with Singletary since the Texans could end up playing from behind against the Ravens, but even in that game script, he should catch enough passes to be a solid value play.
The Ravens were very strong against running backs for much of the season. However, opposing running backs did reach 100+ rushing yards in four of their last five games and scored three touchdowns in their last three games. While it’s still a hard matchup, it’s not an impossible one.
When these two teams met back in Week 1, Singletary was just an afterthought behind Dameon Pierce but seized the job as the season went on and became a great complement to C.J. Stroud’s passing prowess.
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NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Top Ceiling: Rashee Rice at Buffalo Bills – $6,800 on DraftKings, $7,800 on FanDuel
Many of the biggest names at the wide receiver position were bounced from the playoffs in the Wild Card Round last week, but there are still some top options to consider. One rising star projected to continue his ascent this weekend is Rashee Rice, who is stepping up as the go-to receiver in the Chiefs’ offense.
Rice has the second-highest median projection at wide receiver on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections, but he only has the seventh-highest receiver salary on DraftKings and the fifth-highest on FanDuel. He also has the highest Projected Plus/Minus at the position on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the three-way aggregate.
Last week, Rice hauled in eight of 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown against the Bills. He exceeded salary-based expectations for the sixth time in his last seven games on both DraftKings and FanDuel. In those seven games, he averaged 8.7 catches on 9.7 targets for 92.6 yards per game and scored four touchdowns.
Rice hasn’t climbed to the level of Tyreek Hill yet, but he has clearly filled that vacancy in the Chiefs’ passing attack as a speed option that Patrick Mahomes can pepper with targets. This week, he should continue in that role against the Bills, against whom he had seven catches for 72 yards and a touchdown in Week 14.
On this week’s slate, Rice is a great way to get a true No. 1 receiver with a high ceiling without having to pay up to the top of the salary structure.
Top Value: Josh Reynolds vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $3,700 on DraftKings, $6,100 on FanDuel
If you have to go cheap at receiver, multiple options have the potential to step up and come up big in big games. Josh Reynolds and Jameson Williams of the Lions are both top options. Reynolds has the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings, and Williams ranks in the top seven in Projected Plus/Minus on both DraftKings and FanDuel in the aggregated projections. Williams has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of all receivers under $6,000 on FanDuel and an 89% Bargain Rating on DraftKings, and Reynolds has a 99% Bargain Rating on DraftKings.
Reynolds has hauled in five catches in each of his last two games and has 40+ yards in four of his last six games. Last week, Williams was relatively quiet, with just two catches for 19 yards, but he has had multiple catches in four straight weeks.
In Week 6 in Tampa Bay, Williams found the end zone and had 53 yards, while Reynolds also hauled in three catches for 50 yards. The Lions’ receivers had a total of 255 yards in that game, and opposing receivers have topped the 180 mark in four of the Bucs’ last six games. On the season, receivers had 14 touchdowns in 18 games against Tampa Bay.
While Amon-Ra St. Brown is a strong pay-up play, the other Lions’ receivers are excellent values as well. On DraftKings, Reynolds is the better option since he’s so cheap and gets more consistent targets. Since he’s priced up on FanDuel, though, Williams is a strong pivot, bringing nice upside with big-play potential.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Top Ceiling: Travis Kelce at Buffalo Bills – $6,000 on DraftKings, $7,100 on FanDuel
Travis Kelce and the Chiefs have become playoff fixtures over the past few seasons, and he continued to add to that legacy with seven catches for 71 in last week’s win over the Dolphins. He comes into this matchup with the Bills with the highest ceiling, median, and floor projections at tight end on both DraftKings and FanDuel, in addition to the highest Projected Plus/Minus.
In his 19 career postseason contests, Kelce has scored 16 touchdowns, with 10 coming in his last 10 playoff contests. He racked up six catches for 83 yards in Week 14 against the Bills and eight catches for 96 yards and a touchdown when he faced them in that great playoff matchup two years ago.
The Bills defense was actually pretty solid against tight ends this season, giving up only three touchdowns to the position all year. However, the Steelers’ tight ends did have 81 yards last week, so Kelce should be able to find some space against the Buffalo defense that has suffered multiple key injuries over the last few weeks.
Top Value: Cade Otton at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – $3,500 on DraftKings, $5,300 on FanDuel
If you have to go cheap at tight end to afford the other options you want to build around this weekend, check out Bucs’ tight end Cade Otton as a strong low-cost option. He has the highest Projected Plus/Minus of the tight end options under $6,000 on FanDuel and the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus for the entire position on DraftKings, where he has an 84% Bargain Rating.
Otton had a huge game against the Eagles last week, hauling in 8-of-11 targets for 89 yards as one of Baker Mayfield’s top options. That reception total established a new career-high for Otton, but he has caught multiple passes in 11 of his last 13 games. Mayfield trusts the second-year tight end out of Washington, who is a sure-handed option over the middle.
Like last week against the Eagles, Otton is in a favorable matchup against the Lions. Detroit surrendered six tight end touchdowns this season and gave up over 100 yards to the position in two of their last three regular-season games.
