Our Bargain Rating metric is a really cool way to identify quickly which site you should have the most exposure to players. It is a historical percentile rank representing how much of a bargain a player is on one daily fantasy site versus the other. Of course, a player could be a bad play or good play on both sites; however, knowing where you’re getting the best “deal” on a player is critical if you’re playing cash games, especially if you’re playing on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
To emphasize bargains, we’ll use a color chart for players listed in this breakdown. If a player is green, they have a higher Bargain Rating on DraftKings; if they’re red, they have a higher Bargain Rating on FanDuel.
We have a nice split slate today: Eight games in the Early slates and eight in the Main. As such, let’s go through the nuances of each.
Early
In general, the Early slate is the one to load up on bats. The collective implied Vegas total of the eight games in the Early slate is currently 74, whereas the Main slate totals 66.5 runs. It helps that in the Early slate is the Coors Field game — currently with an 11.5-run total — but there are also no low-total games to target. The lowest-total game is Marlins-Cubs at 8.0 runs. Bats are easy to find early on. Pitching is a little more difficult.
Pitchers
John Lackey is probably the safest option, although there are concerns with him as well. He’s a fairly heavy favorite at -172, which makes his low K Prediction of 5.9 a little more palatable on FanDuel, due to the possible 12-point win bonus. Players with high moneylines and low K Predictions have been a better value on FanDuel historically, as shown by their +2.62 Plus/Minus there versus a +1.23 mark at DraftKings.
Drew Pomeranz has the highest K Prediction in the Early slate at 8.4, although his recent advanced stats and opponent projected run total (4.5) are both very concerning. His batted-ball exit velocity allowed is currently a whopping four miles per hour more than his yearly average. Likewise, he has allowed a hard-hit rate 21 percentage points higher in his last two starts. Pitchers with these awful marks have performed very poorly in the past. The cherry on top of this melting sundae is his strike percentage, which is a sad 42 percent.
Carlos Carrasco’s advanced stats are a little less drastic than Pomeranz’s. His exit velocity allowed is up three MPH and hard-hit rate is up six points — and his opponent is projected to score only 4.2 runs, a respectable number relative to this slate. Michael Pineda is always a terrifying ride to get on, but he has hit salary-based expectations in his last four games, has positive advanced stats, and is facing a team projected to score only 3.9 runs.
Batters
Which Coors Field batters should we discuss? Let’s start with Trevor Story, who is oddly $3,500 on FanDuel and has a ridiculous 50 percent hard-hit rate over his last 12 games. No surprise, players who come into Coors Field with a hard-hit rate of at least 50 percent have typically crushed value.
You can really make a case for all Coors Field batters: Yes, even the bottom-of-the-order ones. If you want to find the chalk, however, Nolan Arenado’s .297 Isolated Power (ISO), Yasmany Tomas’ .563 slugging, and Paul Goldschmidt’s .455 Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) are all elite marks, inside or outside of Coors Field. Peter O’Brien continues to intrigue: Despite his misleading .765 ISO (small sample size), his low salary and batting spot lately with the Diamondbacks are too good to overlook.
There are also very high totals in this slate other than Rockies-Diamondbacks. The Orioles, Yankees, and Blue Jays are all implied to score over 5.0 runs. The usual suspects are in good spots here. Chris Davis (.364 ISO vs RHP), Carlos Beltran (.241 ISO vs RHP), and Josh Donaldson (.585 slugging vs RHP) all have potential for big games.
The most intriguing team might be the Indians. They currently have a 74 Team Value Rating — higher than both Coors teams — and they face off against Anibal Sanchez, owner of a unbelievably high HR/9 allowed rate of 2.084. Their combination of pricing and Upside makes them a very nice pivot off the likely high ownership levels of the Rockies and Diamondbacks in tournaments.
Plus/Minus, Bargain Rating, Upside, and other premium exclusive metrics are accessible via our Ratings tool.
Main
Pitchers
Madison Bumgarner is in about as ideal of a spot as possible for a pitcher. He has an elite WHIP (1.011), elite K/9 rate (10.306), is predicted to whiff 8.4 Phillies, is facing a team projected to score only 2.3 runs, and is a huge -300 moneyline favorite. He also gets the benefit of pitching at home, where he has a perfect Park Factor Rating of 100. He’s expensive — $14,000 on DraftKings and $12,000 on FanDuel — but he’s still worth it, as we know that $14,000 guys can still be a value.
After Bumgarner, there isn’t another elite option. No other pitcher has a K Prediction above 6.6. There are, however, a couple of viable options, including Jacob deGrom, who is trending in the right direction after struggling early on after returning from injury. The Braves are slated to score only 3.3 runs, and deGrom has seen good recent advanced stats: He has allowed a batted-ball distance of only 188 feet in his last two games, a mark that has historically led to profitability for pitchers.
After that, you’ll have to take your chances with a cheap strikeout guy — like Nate Karns versus STL — or perhaps a more-expensive WHIP guy — such as Kenta Maeda versus Pittsburgh. The edges are small after Bumgarner and deGrom, so perhaps look to more in-depth statistics, including Umpire Plus/Minus. For example, Ron Kulpa, home-plate umpire for the Dodgers-Pirates affair, has historically gifted starting pitchers with +1.0 points over expectation.
Batters
Although the Main slate doesn’t have the high collective total of the Early one, there are still teams with very high totals: the Orioles, Red Sox, Rangers, and Angels are all currently projected for 5.0 runs or more. Let’s run through those teams.
Depending on who starts for the Orioles, everyone in their lineup might have positive splits against right-handed pitchers. We already mentioned Chris Davis (the Orioles have a double-header today), so let’s hit on the other Baltimore guys. His teammates have marks that aren’t far behind his elite numbers: Adam Jones and Pedro Alvarez both have ISO marks of at least .220 and hold 10 Pro Trends on DraftKings. Kyun-Soo Kim is cheap and has strong Consistency — he has scored fantasy points in every game he has started so far — but he didn’t play last night and doesn’t have much Upside, outside of being a part of an Orioles stack.
David Ortiz is always an elite option against righties, as shown by his .380 ISO and .709 slugging percentage. His advanced stats, however, are a bit down as of late. His groundball rate is up nearly 20 percentage points from his yearly average. His teammate Jackie Bradley, who also crushes righties, fortunately has great advanced stats: His 51 percent hard-hit rate is 14 points higher than his yearly average. Mookie Betts had been struggling lately, but he hit a homer last night and also stole a base. He’s always a candidate for an explosive game.
The Rangers don’t have the power of these other top-projected teams — Rougned Odor has the highest ISO at .234 — but they have a solid wOBA mark and get to face knuckleballer Steven Wright. Perhaps most importantly they currently have a projected Team Value Rating of 90, which means that their combination of projected runs (4.9) and salaries across the board make them incredible values. For this reason, they make for a viable stack if you choose to pay up for Bumgarner or deGrom.
The Angels face lefty Dillon Overton in his big-league debut. That might not be the death sentence it seems (as shown in that link), but Mike Trout is a struggle for any pitcher, let alone a rookie. Although a bit forgotten this year, Trout still boasts a .407 wOBA versus lefties and has a recent hard-hit rate of 38 percent. Interestingly, most of the Angels batters have almost even splits (for example, Albert Pujols has a mid-.200 ISO versus both lefties and righties), which means that even if Overton gets pulled early, the Angels will still be OK. They also boast a better Team Value Rating than the Rangers on FanDuel.
Good luck!
