The Divisional Round comes to a close between the Chiefs and Bills, which will have everyone on the edge of their seat. The Bills are listed as 2.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 45.5 points.
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You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Who other than Josh Allen to lead the way on this Showdown slate? Allen turned in another great performance against Pittsburgh last week, completing 70% of his passes while scoring four total touchdowns en route to 33.52 DraftKings points.
Buffalo had their backs against the wall and had to win out down the stretch to make the postseason. When the games matter more, we see Josh Allen utilize his legs more, and that remained true this year. He topped 30 rushing yards in five of the last seven games, including topping 65 in three of seven. He also has an impressive nine rushing touchdowns over the stretch, as he’s truly become a weapon around the goal line.
Kansas City has been a great defense, allowing the fourth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year. Allen was held in check for his standards when these teams played in Week 14. He threw for 233 yards and a touchdown while scrambling for 32 yards and a score on the ground.
He clears the next closest player in median projection by 2.5 points, and he’s the top option on this Showdown slate.
Patrick Mahomes is no stranger to these big games, and this matchup is exploitable. Buffalo has been good against opposing quarterbacks, but Buffalo is going to be down potentially eight preferred starters on defense from Week 1.
Mahomes didn’t have much success in the first matchup with Buffalo, totaling 14.64 DraftKings points. They notoriously had the offensive offsides called on Kadarius Toney, which cost Mahomes fantasy points, but who cares? Just don’t line up offsides. Cry about it, Chiefs fans.
A lot of lineups will include both quarterbacks this weekend, and I think that’s the optimal way. Allen is such a threat, and the Chiefs will put the ball in Mahomes’ hands when it counts. Both are strong options.
Isiah Pacheco follows, fresh off 25 touches in back-to-back games. He wasn’t nearly as involved in the passing game in the Wild Card round, as he had just one target compared to seven in Week 17. However, it’s hard to ignore his touch counts in games without Jerick McKinnon. In four games with McKinnon sidelined, Pacheco has seen 91 touches, averaging 22.75 per game.
Buffalo started the year rough against opposing running backs but has turned it around, not allowing a back to top 80 yards since Week 6. Pacheco is a fine option, but he’s not a priority for me.
Rashee Rice started his postseason career with a bang, catching eight of 12 targets for 130 yards and a touchdown, totaling 30 DraftKings points. Rice had a solid game against Buffalo in the first matchup, catching seven of ten targets for 72 yards and a score.
Buffalo’s defense is dealing with a slew of injuries, including slot cornerback Taron Johnson. He’s expected to suit up, but he could be limited. Rice has been running about half of his routes from the slot, setting him up for an advantageous matchup. I prefer Rice to Pacheco.
What a fall from grace it’s been for Stefon Diggs, with his lowest price tag of the season. He had a middling day against Pittsburgh, catching seven of nine targets for 52 yards. He’s only reached double-digit DraftKings points twice in the past six games and three of the past nine.
Diggs also has a tough matchup here, as Kansas City has been stellar against top receivers. Diggs himself, Tyreek Hill (twice), Davante Adams (twice), A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase all failed to eclipse 80 yards against Kansas City.
James Cook has an easier matchup than Diggs, and he crushed the Chiefs in the first matchup. He took 10 carries for 58 yards and caught five balls for 83 yards and a touchdown. Kansas City has allowed the fifth-most yards per carry to opposing backs on the year and have been vulnerable through the air. Cook is a strong play on Sunday.
His price would warrant it, but I refuse to put Travis Kelce in the midrange section. I was all over him last week, and two big drops cost him, but he still caught seven balls for 71 yards. With Buffalo ravaged over the middle of the field with injuries, I’m going right back to the veteran.
Kelce seems to have a knack for the spotlight in these big spots, and I’m expecting a big performance from him on Sunday.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Dalton Kincaid has double-digit DraftKings points in three straight games, as he found the endzone for Buffalo on a 29-yard touchdown last week. He had a middling performance in the first matchup with Kansas City, catching five of eight targets for 21 yards.
Most of the production against Kansas City has come from tight ends and running backs, as they’ve stifled opposing receivers. Kincaid is a strong option in the midrange.
Despite Gabe Davis being ruled out, I still prefer Kincaid to Khalil Shakir. Shakir will run a route on likely 80-plus percent of the dropbacks, and he gets the easiest matchup of all the receivers. He plays about 2/3 of his snaps from the slot, and Kansas City funnels receptions to the middle of the field.
Deonte Harty caught his lone target for 34 yards, but Trent Sherfield is the other Bills’ receiver to be mindful of, as he played on 63% of the snaps and is insanely cheap.
On the Kansas City side, it continues to be a mess behind Rice. Justin Watson ran the second-most routes last week but is slightly too expensive. Mecole Hardman ran a route on 44% of the dropbacks and looks like a strong value piece.
Kadarius Toney could be worth a look if he suits up, as he’s insanely cheap, and they like to script the ball into his hands. Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw his snaps dip last week and doesn’t play enough to warrant rostering in DFS, considering his poor target rate per route run.
Dawson Knox is a solid value option as a touchdown-or-bust play. He’s found the end zone in back-t-back games and saw two targets last week.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Noah Gray ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Noah Gray played on about 50% of the snaps last week and caught his lone target for 20 yards. He’s likely a touchdown-or-bust option, but he’s cheap and shares the same advantageous matchup as Kelce.
