Saturday night gives us a matchup between the 49ers and the red-hot Packers. The 49ers are listed as 9.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 50.5 points.
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NFL DFS Stud Picks
Christian McCaffrey unsurprisingly headlines the Showdown slate, fresh off a tremendous year. McCaffrey was dealing with a calf injury down the stretch but was a full participant in practice this week.
This matchup is certainly nothing to be afraid of, but it isn’t the most mouthwatering matchup ever as many make it out to be. The Packers are right around the middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed at 4.2. They have allowed 14 rushing touchdowns, and McCaffrey has a nose for the end zone.
They’ve been elite down the stretch, allowing just 3.3 yards per carry and two rushing touchdowns over their past four games. San Francisco boasts a stronger rushing attack, and McCaffrey’s dual-threat usage makes the top overall option on the slate.
Deebo Samuel is one of the most frustrating players to pin down in daily fantasy. He always comes in with a high price despite his always fluctuating workload. However, his per-touch efficiency can be off the charts, and he’s a one-of-a-kind explosive player. He had 59 total touches over the last nine games, scoring ten touchdowns.
This matchup bodes well for him, as Green Bay runs the 12th-highest rate of zone coverage. Samuel has a 26% target rate per route run against zone compared to 16% against man.
Despite Samuel’s zone splits, we can’t count out Brandon Aiyuk. Green Bay runs the fifth-highest rate of Cover-3, and Aiyuk leads the team with a 28% target share against the coverage. I prefer Samuel to Aiyuk, but it is close.
Brock Purdy is preferred over both receivers, topping 20 DraftKings points in nine of 16 games. Green Bay shut down the Dallas passing attack when it mattered last week, as Dak Prescott averaged under five yards per attempt through the first three quarters.
However, we have seen Green Bay get shredded numerous times this year. Baker Mayfield and Bryce Young lit up this defense in Weeks 15 and 16. Purdy is leading one of the top offenses in the league, and this Packers defense isn’t equipped to slow them down after being on the field for nearly 90 plays against Dallas.
Aaron Jones leads the way on the Green Bay side, coming off of his fourth-straight game with more than 20 carries. Jones found the end zone three times against Dallas and gets a plus matchup against San Francisco, contrary to public belief.
The 49ers rank in the bottom half of the league in success rate allowed on runs and have given up the 12th-most receiving points per game to running backs. This appears like a tough matchup, but Jones should be successful. If AJ Dillon is back, it’ll diminish Jones’ outlook, but if Dillon misses again, Jones is a strong play.
Jordan Love had one of the most impressive playoff debuts that we’ve ever seen. He completed 16-of-21 passes for 272 yards and three touchdowns. Absolutely slicing and dicing the Cowboys defense. Love has been sensational for about a month now, playing like one of the best quarterbacks in the league.
This San Francisco pass defense is tough but not unbeatable. We’ve seen them struggle at times, and Green Bay has had one of the most potent offenses in the league as of late. It’s hard to ignore Love at such a cheap price.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Romeo Doubs was someone who I had absolutely no interest in last week, and he made me eat dust. He had an anemic track record against man coverage, which Dallas ran at a very high rate. However, I tip my cap, as he caught all six of his targets for 151 yards and a touchdown.
Despite last week’s performance, I’m going to double down and avoid Doubs this week. Last week was his first time catching more than four passes since Week 11, as he’s been very touchdown-reliant as a whole.
Green Bay’s wide receivers will likely stay in rotation, with Doubs and Christian Watson leading the way. Watson only played on 41% of the snaps in his return, as he was questionable all week. The last time we saw him return from a long absence, we saw him jump all the way up to 84% of the snaps in his second game.
With the emergence of Dontayvion Wicks and Bo Melton, I’m not expecting Watson to reach that high. However, I’d expect him to settle in between 65-75%, making him my favorite Packer pass catcher.
Wicks is a strong value option as well, while Melton may be a tough click with how many guys are ahead of him. Jayden Reed remains the team’s slot man but caught zero of three targets last week. Green Bay ran a lot of two tight end sets last week, which limited Reed’s snaps. I’d expect him to jump back to 60-70% this week, making him a strong option.
Cost adjusted, I’d rank the receivers Watson, Reed, Wicks, Doubs, and Melton, with Doubs and Melton being interchangeable.
At tight end, Luke Musgrave caught a long touchdown, but it was Tucker Kraft who ran a route on 66.7% of the dropbacks compared to 38% for Musgrave. However, we’ve now seen Musgrave jump from 17.6% in Week 18 to 38% last week, and Kraft saw his lowest participation since Week 11. I’d expect this closer to a 50/50 timeshare in a matchup with a San Francisco defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards per target to tight ends.
George Kittle’s price sticks out like a sore thumb right in the middle of all this Green Bay madness. There are so many options that I understand someone’s price has to drop. However, his talent partnered with this matchup make him a stellar option.
Green Bay has allowed the third-most yards per target and yards per reception to opposing tight ends. They’ve also allowed ten touchdowns to the position, making Kittle a strong bet to reach the end zone.
I’m not sure how much Elijah Mitchell we can expect this weekend, as McCaffrey seems to be fully healthy. He makes sense when building for 49ers victories, as he could salt the game away. He’s also a threat to mix in early on in the game if Shanahan wants to keep McCaffrey fresh.
We haven’t seen Jauan Jennings since Week 15, as he’s been dealing with a concussion. He’ll likely return to playing on about 30-50% of the snaps and likely need a touchdown to pay off his tag. He’s not a priority, but he’s a fine value piece.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- AJ Dillon ($1,800 on DraftKings, $8,000 on FanDuel): It’s unclear whether or not AJ Dillon will suit up, as he’s missed the past two games. Green Bay should have success on the ground, and Dillon comes in with an impressively cheap price tag.
