The Divisional Round is always one of the best weeks of the year, as we have four highly-anticipated games between Super Bowl contenders. The weekend kicks off Saturday afternoon with the Texans heading to Baltimore. The Ravens are listed as 9.5-point home favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Lamar Jackson is in a price tier of his own for this Showdown slate, and rightfully so. He clears the next player in median projection by over six points and ceiling projection by more than 10. He was scorching hot the last time we saw him, coming off of a 321-yard, five-touchdown day against the Miami Dolphins.
Jackson gets a great matchup here against a vulnerable Houston secondary. It was a while ago, but Jackson already had a game against this defense in Week 1. He completed 77% of his passes for 7.7 yards per attempt, but he only attempted 22 passes, and Baltimore amassed three rushing touchdowns.
Houston has struggled mightily against opposing passers, and Baltimore may opt for a more aerial attack, with the Texans boasting a strong run defense. Jackson is always a threat with his legs as well, with 35+ rushing yards in all but two games this year.
Nico Collins comes next, fresh off another strong performance. He fell four yards short of the 100-yard bonus, racking up 96 yards and a score on six catches.
Baltimore has allowed the ninth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers, making them appear as a tough matchup at first glance. However, they’ve been vulnerable against top receiver options, allowing the ninth-most receptions per game to opposing WR1s.
Collins continues to rack up volume with Tank Dell sidelined, now owning 35% of the team targets and a 30% target rate per route run with Dell off the field. He has averaged 35 yards fewer per game on the road, but he played just six games on the road due to injury and had some tough matchups.
C.J. Stroud has received a lot of hype this week, and rightfully so. He was stellar in his playoff debut against the Browns, completing over 75% of his passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns as the Texans pulverized Cleveland.
Stroud shredded a top defense in Cleveland, but he gets another tough test this week against Baltimore. The Ravens have allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks, as well as the lowest yards per attempt.
I’m not sure if Stroud can recreate last week’s magic, but I’m expecting another strong showing from the rookie, who has already cemented himself as a top-ten quarterback in the league.
Zay Flowers had been dealing with a calf injury down the stretch but was a full participant in practice Thursday and appears like a full-go for Saturday’s contest. He’s found the end zone in four of his last five games, topping 20 DraftKings points in all four games where he found the end zone.
Flowers’ splits have been dependent on Mark Andrews‘ status, as Flowers has a 19% target rate per route run with Andrews on the field compared to 22% with him off. I’m expecting Andrews to return, but it’s unclear how much he’ll play. I’m expecting close to a 50/50 split between him and Isaiah Likely.
If Andrews misses, Likely becomes a very strong option, as Houston has allowed the second-most receptions per game and fourth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends. If Andrews suits up, I’d expect him to play in more high-leverage situations, which could take key touches away from Likely.
Back to Flowers; his outlook is dinged a little bit if Andrews plays, but he’s still a strong option, as Houston has allowed the fifth-most yards per catch to opposing receivers.
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NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Devin Singletary continues to soak up volume, as he saw 13 carries and three targets last week. He’s seen 53 carries and seven targets over the past three weeks. He’s an essential part of Houston’s game plan.
He’s needed the end zone to pay off, averaging 9.7 DraftKings points per game over the stretch without touchdowns. Baltimore has been leaky as of late, allowing the fourth-most yards per carry to opposing running backs over the last eight games.
Singletary could see a lighter workload with Houston a large road underdog, but if they keep it close, we’ll likely see a lot of Singletary.
Gus Edwards has been the lead back since Keaton Mitchell got hurt. Justice Hill has seen more work as a pass catcher while mixing down for some carries. Edwards has out-carried him almost two to one and has dominated the touches inside the five-yard line on the year.
Houston has allowed the fewest yards per carry to opposing backs on the year, but they have surrendered 12 rushing touchdowns.
Both Edwards and Hill are viable options on the Showdown slate.
Baltimore has been very careful with Odell Beckham Jr.‘s usage, as he’s run a route on 48% of dropbacks this season. They could potentially ramp him up now that we’re in the postseason and all the chips are down. He has a 22% target rate per route run and has the most end-zone targets on the team.
I like Beckham Jr. in tournaments, as his role could be expanded.
Dalton Schultz caught a 37-yard touchdown, which salvaged his fantasy day last week, as it was his only catch on two targets. That was to be expected, though, as Cleveland has done a great job limiting tight ends.
Baltimore has struggled against opposing tight ends when they line up in the slot, which Schultz does about a quarter of the time. However, they’ve been good as a whole, allowing the fifth-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends.
Rashod Bateman has been the WR 2/3 in Baltimore, earning less work than Beckham Jr. but playing more snaps. He picked up a little more volume down the stretch, averaging five targets per game from Weeks 13-17. I’m not a huge fan of Bateman here, as there’s potential for Beckham Jr.’s role to grow, but not much opportunity for Bateman.
Nelson Agholor was used extensively in Baltimore’s final game against Pittsburgh. He’s been primarily the team’s slot man, not totaling many fantasy-viable scores. He’s too expensive for his role here.
The value receivers for Houston have far more appeal with Noah Brown sidelined. Robert Woods was limited in his first game back, running a route on just 34% of dropbacks and earning two targets. John Metchie III is priced right behind him, as he ran a route on 68% of dropbacks and caught all three of his targets.
Both receivers were limited in practice, while Xavier Hutchinson, who ran a route on 32% of the dropbacks last week, was a full participant. I’d expect both Woods and Metchie to play. I’d like to get up to Woods or Metchie as opposed to using Hutchinson.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Brevin Jordan ($2,800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Brevin Jordan played on 50% of the snap last week, catching his lone target for a 76-yard touchdown. He’s slightly overpriced, but he’s a viable punt option on Saturday night.
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