Sunday’s three-gamer is effectively the “main” slate for the weekend on DraftKings, with the usual assortment of featured contests. It kicks off at 1:00 p.m. ET with Steelers-Bills and goes through the night game between the Rams and Lions.
Editor’s note: After this article was written, the Steelers-Bills game was moved to Monday.
In this article, I’ll be using various FantasyLabs tools and other industry metrics to break down the DFS slate.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate projections:
Editor’s note: After this article was written, the Steelers-Bills game was moved to Monday.
NFL DFS Quarterback Picks
Stud
This one’s easy. Dak Prescott ($7,600) was one of the most valuable assets in fantasy after the first month of the season, topping 24 DraftKings points in eight of the Cowboy’s last 12 games. Two of the other four were blowouts where Dallas won by at least 20.
Now he and the Cowboys draw a bad Packers defense that ranks 27th against the pass by DVOA in the friendly confines of Jerry World in Dallas. Green Bay has the second-worst pass defense of any playoff team, ranking just one spot ahead of the Eagles.
Given the Cowboys’ reliance on the pass (top six in Pass Rate Over Expectation) and Dak’s expected efficiency, it’s an absolute smash spot for the passing game. While he’ll be popular, we’re projecting fairly evenly distributed ownership among the four top options, so he’s a fine GPP play as well.
Prescott leads our models in median, ceiling, and Pts/Sal projections for the three-game slate.
Value
There are two quarterbacks near Prescott in terms of Pts/Sal, both playing in the late game on Sunday. That would be Lions starter Jared Goff ($6,200) and former long-time Lions starter Matthew Stafford ($6,500). The trade that saw the two former No. 1 overall picks swap teams has worked out remarkably well for both teams, with the Rams winning a Super Bowl in Stafford’s first season in LA and the Lions winning their division for the first time in 30 years this year.
This game has the highest total of the weekend, with an excellent chance to turn into a shootout. Unlike the Packers-Cowboys game, we’re expecting a close battle with a spread of just 3.5.
There are pros and cons to both quarterbacks here. Goff has been excellent at home, but plays for a team more reliant on the run (26th in PROE). However, the Rams have the softer passing defense at 22nd by DVOA, and the Lions are favored — and thus implied for more points.
The Rams throw the ball about 3% more than the Lions, with the matchup likely to push that number even higher. Detroit ranks third in DVOA against the run but 16th against the pass, which Sean McVay will almost certainly be looking to exploit.
All things considered, I’d be leaning towards Stafford for cash games and Goff for GPPs. It’s hard to fit both of the Rams’ top pass catchers in a cash lineup, but you get exposure to both through Stafford. At the same time, you can secure the bulk of Goff’s production through Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000), especially if number two option Sam LaPorta ($6,000) is limited or injured.
For tournaments, Stafford plus both top receivers and a Detroit bringback would be how I attack this game in tighter builds.
NFL DFS Running Back Picks
Stud
Projection systems — both ours and otherwise — love Kyren Williams ($7,300) this week. On the one hand, I understand. He’s one of two backs on the Sunday slate to see anything resembling a workhorse role and has been far more efficient than the other (Tony Pollard ($6,100) on the season.
On the other hand, I have a tough time paying up for a back against the Lions. The Rams are likely to face a slightly negative game script here, and Detroit is so much easier to beat through the air. Even if Williams sees a ton of carries, Detroit’s top-three ranking in yards per rush allowed could still limit his overall production.
Still, it’s hard to argue with his production. Williams had scores of 17 and 20 DraftKings points in matchups with the tough defenses of Baltimore and Cleveland. He’s a safe bet for a “good” score but has a lower-than-usual chance of being a week-winner.
Value
The aforementioned Pollard is tied with Williams for the lead in Pts/Sal projection at running back on Sunday. He’s seen a workload similar to Williams’ (at least in terms of market share), but it has been horribly inefficient for the vast majority of the season.
The spot couldn’t be much better, though. He’s a big home favorite, taking on the worst run defense of the six teams on Sunday’s slate. If the Cowboys get off to an early lead, we could see a heavy dose of Pollard. He’s a strong cash game option and makes sense in GPP lineups built around a dominant Cowboys win.
Behind Pollard in Pts/Sal is Aaron Jones ($6,300) of the Packers. Following a quiet season, he broke out in the last month with three straight games of at least 20 carries and 17 DraftKings points. Expect Green Bay to lean on him even more in the playoffs, but it’s a rough matchup against the strong Cowboys defense.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($6,500) is also interesting this week. Detroit has brought him along slowly most of the season — except when David Montgomery ($6,200) was inactive — as they looked to protect the explosive rookie. However, the playoffs are a different animal. It wouldn’t be a shock to see Gibbs with the bulk of the workload this week, though that’s more of a hunch than anything. Still, he’s worth a look at lower ownership than the other backs mentioned so far.
Finally, at the cheap end, I like Jaylen Warren ($5,100) this week. While Najee Harris ($5,400) is the superior ball carrier, Warren has nearly twice as many targets on the season. With Pittsburgh as 10-point underdogs, I’d much rather have the passing-down back than the pure runner this week.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Wide Receiver Picks
Stud
Not only do they have the highest PROE and implied total on the slate, but the Cowboys have the most concentrated passing attack. CeeDee Lamb ($9,000) led the NFL with 181 targets this season, good for just under a 30% target share. For all the same reasons, Prescott is a great play this week, and Lamb is as well. Their production is heavily correlated, and they’ll be the most popular stack on the slate (but for good reason).
Right behind Lamb in median and ceiling projection is the Lions Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,000). Like Lamb, he’s one of just four receivers to average double-digit targets per game this season and has an excellent matchup with the Rams’ soft pass defense. He could see a massive target share this week, particularly if LaPorta misses or is limited. Unlike Lamb, St. Brown can get there without bringing his quarterback with him, as he racks up points through short catches more than yards and touchdowns.
The top tier at receiver finishes with the Rams duo of Cooper Kupp ($7,500) and Puka Nacua ($7,200). The Rams’ top pairing tends to go off in opposite games, with nine total 20-point performances since Kupp returned, but only once at the same time. They certainly could buck that trend in a likely shootout against a pass-funnel defense, but the sharper play is to mix and match them across your lineups.
Value
Another Ram entirely leads out Pts/Sal projection — newfound number three option Demarcus Robinson ($3,600). Robinson had five straight double-digit games before being blanked in limited action against San Francisco (in a largely meaningless game), yet he still has a near-minimum salary. He’s an excellent cash game one-off and a strong third option in Stafford stacks that’s less likely to take away from his teammate’s production.
On the longer shot side, the Lions Jameson Williams ($3,500) has come on strong down the stretch. Before getting a week off in Week 18, he saw about 2/3 of the Lions’ snaps for the past four weeks. Fellow deep threat Kalif Raymond is out this week, which could push Williams closer to an every-down role — especially if LaPorta misses as well.
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NFL DFS Tight End Picks
Stud
We’re heading back to the Dallas passing attack, with Jake Ferguson ($4,700) easily lapping the field. The only tight end priced above $5,000 on the slate is likely to miss LaPorta, leaving Ferguson as the top play by default.
Which isn’t to say he’s undeserving. Ferguson finished top 10 in essentially every major category among tight ends, and has the best offensive environment of any player at the position. He topped 20 DraftKings points just once this year, though, making him a high-floor/low-ceiling option.
Value
The only tight end anywhere near Ferguson in Pts/Sal is the Packers’ Tucker Kraft ($3,300). Kraft is cheap, healthy, and the clear No. 1 tight end on his team. Did I mention he’s cheap? That’s the biggest selling point here, as it’s a fairly difficult matchup for a player who’s topped 11 DraftKings points just once.
Any of the cheaper tight ends are a touchdown away from being the best play at the position, so I’d recommend mixing and matching them across tournament lineups. It’s a tough slate for the position, especially if fading the chalky Ferguson.
GPP Roster Construction
As with all smaller slates, trading projected points (or ceilings) for uniqueness is largely the way to go. My favorite way to do so is to fade one or two of the three chalky Cowboys pieces (Prescott/Lamb/Ferguson) and replace them with players from Rams-Lions.
Dallas has the highest implied team total and would be the safest bet for the most overall fantasy production, but the closer line and two explosive offenses in Detroit give Rams-Lions a far better chance at turning into a shootout. It takes a bit of guesswork on which pieces from that game go off — but that lowered confidence also keeps ownership down.
I’m also mostly shying away from Steelers-Bills outside of defenses. It seems like there’s going to be absolutely brutal weather, which should severely limit the passing attack. There’s still a shot at a good game for any of the running backs, but even that is limited, given the circumstances.
Cash Games
As always, the important thing for cash games is making a late swap plan. The best plays at each position are fairly obvious — and reasonably accessible salary-wise. Rams-Lions as the late game provides plenty of pivoting opportunities, though.
Pivoting from popular players like St. Brown and Nacua to lesser options like Gibbs and Kupp gives rosters a chance to catch up. I also expect Demarcus Robinson to be chalky in cash. If you’re trailing, switching from him to Jameson Williams is another way to salvage some expected value.
Regardless, it’s important to have a plan ready. I’m not expecting much cash game ownership on anyone in the early game (outside of Bills defense), but once the Packers-Cowboys game locks you should have a good read on which players are chalky.
Good luck!
