After weeks of nail-biting, heart-pounding action, we’re about to hit the crescendo of the NFL season. The playoffs are about to kick off, and for the first couple of weeks, that means a handful of games to get excited about. Wild Card Weekend features a six-game slate spread across three days. The Cleveland Browns and Houston Texans have the honors with a playoff-opening Saturday matinee, followed by an evening tilt between the Miami Dolphins and Kansas City Chiefs in frigid temperatures.
This article will discuss 3-5 of my favorite pick’ems from various DFS sites like Betr, Sleeper Fantasy, PrizePicks, and Underdog Fantasy.
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Wild Card Saturday NFL Fantasy Pick’ems
Joe Flacco Higher 1.5 Touchdown Passes
Joe Flacco’s late-career renaissance with the Cleveland Browns has been one of the most compelling narratives to emerge from the 2023 NFL season. The former Super Bowl MVP was canvassing teams to return to the NFL before the Browns came knocking. The marriage couldn’t have gone any better, as Cleveland finished with 11 wins and the fifth seed in the AFC. As we’ve all seen, Flacco typically reserves his best performances for the postseason.
Last time he went on a postseason run, Flacco bested a gauntlet of future Hall of Famers. The Baltimore Ravens got past the Indianapolis Colts, Denver Broncos, and New England Patriots before defeating the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XLVII. Playoff pedigree runs cold through Flacco’s blood.
That’s without even considering his elite form this season. Flacco’s passing yards per game and yards per completion are the highest they’ve ever been, correlating with improved scoring metrics. The Browns’ quarterback has thrown 13 touchdown passes in five games, recording multiple touchdown passes in each contest and hitting three scores in all but two of those outings.
The Browns have their work cut out for them on the road, but thankfully, they have the unflappable Joe Flacco under center. Surprisingly, Flacco has been an integral part of the team’s success, and we’re not expecting that to change in the playoffs. We’re planting our flag in Flacco going north of 1.5 touchdown passes.
C.J. Stroud Lower 21.5 Completions
It’s just a matter of time before C.J. Stroud is announced as the Offensive Rookie of the Year. The Houston Texans quarterback engineered a triumphant rookie season en route to the team’s first AFC South title since 2019. Still, his resolution will be tested against a fierce Browns’ pass defense in the first round of the playoffs.
As good as the Texans have been, they’ve decreased their reliance on their rookie signal-caller over the latter part of the season. Stroud hasn’t attempted more than 32 passes in any of his last four games, averaging just 27 attempts over that stretch. Predictably, his completions have dropped with fewer attempts, falling to 17.5 across the four-game sample. That downward trend is likely to continue against an unforgiving Browns’ pass rush.
Cleveland operated one of the most imposing defensive fronts in the league. The Browns averaged the sixth-most sacks this season, getting to quarterbacks 2.9 times per game. Anchored by Myles Garrett and Za’Darius Smith, Stroud will have defenders in his face from the outset of this contest.
Stroud will face an immense amount of pressure in Round 1 of the playoffs, negatively impacting his chances of exceeding his completion projection. Those efforts are further hindered by decreased emphasis on the Texans’ passing game over the last few weeks. At the end of this one, we’re expecting Stroud to fall below 21.5 completions.
Patrick Mahomes Lower 248.5 Passing Yards
Part of the joy of open-air stadiums is the uncertainty it brings come playoff time. The Kansas City Chiefs and Miami Dolphins will get to navigate those challenges on Saturday night when they face temperatures as cold as -30 with the wind chill. Inevitably, that will make it hard for either team to gain traction with their passing game, but Patrick Mahomes faces the added challenge of escaping one of the best pass rushes in the NFL.
It was unlikely that Mahomes would repeat the magic of his MVP season this year, but many didn’t expect him to fall as far as he did. The six-time Pro Bowler threw for the second-fewest yards of his career while putting together his worst quarterback rating as a starter. Worse, he’s fallen off toward the end of the season, throwing for less than 246 yards in three of his past five.
Those issues will only be compounded by a top-end Miami defense. Although they got off to a rough start to the season, the Dolphins ended the campaign as one of the top units in the NFL. Miami totaled the third-most sacks while ranking in the top half of the league in passing yards allowed, with the 12th-fewest passing yards as the visitors.
Mahomes is contending with an elite Dolphins pass defense and sub-optimal weather considerations. Combined with his diminished efforts this season, it’s unlikely he will accumulate the 249 passing yards needed to push him over his total. We’re taking a firm stance on Mahomes falling beneath his passing yards.
Tyreek Hill Lower 6.5 Receptions
Some of the same rationale can be applied to our final play of the slate. Tyreek Hill has been the Dolphins’ offensive catalyst this season; however, an ankle injury has limited his production over the final few weeks of the season. Finding his footing in unrelenting weather conditions makes it even more improbable that he exceeds his receiving projection on Saturday.
Hill’s big play threat has been negated over the last few weeks. The Dolphins’ wideout has been held below 100 receiving yards in four of his last five, falling below six receptions in three of those contests. Moreover, his ankle ailment appears to be impacting his ability to run his usual routes and haul in passes. Hill has a dismal 52.0% catch rate over his previous two games, grabbing just 13 of 25 passes.
The Dolphins have a more imposing path to victory against the Chiefs defense. KC allows the fourth-fewest passing yards and eighth-lowest completion percentage, totaling the second-most sacks in the league.
Temperature-wise, this will be a 50-degree swing for the Miami Dolphins week-over-week. Playing in frigid temperatures with an ailing ankle amidst a downturn in his production all point toward a diminished performance from Hill. Although you wouldn’t be wrong for taking him to go lower than any of his receiving projections, we’ve honed in on 6.5 completions against the Chiefs.
