The Wild Card round closes with the Eagles traveling to Tampa Bay. The Eagles are listed as three-point road favorites, while the total sits at 43.5 points.
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Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Monday’s Showdown slate has some big names, but injuries loom as A.J. Brown will not suit up. This leaves Jalen Hurts as undoubtedly the top option on the slate despite his dealing with a finger injury.
Hurts doesn’t carry an injury designation, but he left the season finale with a finger injury on his throwing hand. I’m assuming he’s around 100%, and he gets a matchup with the Bucs, who have allowed the fifth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay loves to send extra rushers, and Hurts has struggled against the blitz this year. Add to the fact that he’s now down his top weapon; it gives cause for concern. However, his prowess around the goal line cannot be ignored, and despite his struggles against the blitz, he still topped 20 DraftKings points against Tampa Bay in Week 3.
Mike Evans comes next, and despite Philadelphia’s struggles against WR1s all season long, Evans only had five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown when these teams first played.
The Bucs’ receiving room is interesting, as despite Chris Godwin coming in way cheaper (and belonging in the midrange section), he’s seen more work than Evans for a few weeks now. Over the first 12 games, Evans had a 26% target share and 27.5% target rate per route run.
In the five-game span since, Evans has a 21% target share and 20% target rate per route run, while Godwin has a 29% target share and 28% target rate per route run. Regardless, I still side with Evans, who could see slightly lower ownership.
Rachaad White was a workhorse this year, ranking second among all running backs in touches on the year. The Eagles were a ferocious run defense to start the year, but they’ve allowed 144 scrimmage yards per game to opposing running backs since their Week 10 bye.
Baker Mayfield gets a mouth-watering matchup against an Eagles’ defense allowing the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks. However, Mayfield is dealing with ankle and rib injuries and is listed as questionable. He’ll almost certainly suit up, but he hasn’t been great as of late. I’m fine rostering one to two Bucs without him, but I think people may overlook Mayfield with how many high-end options there are.
Speaking of high-end options, DeVonta Smith becomes one of the most attractive clicks on the slate now that Brown is out. With Brown off the field, Smith has a 28% target rate per route run and a 29% target share. He also plays about three-quarters of his snaps from the perimeter, where Tampa Bay is most vulnerable.
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NFL DFS Mid-range Picks
D’Andre Swift missed the season finale with an illness but appears a full-go. The matchup is tough, as Tampa Bay allowed the third-fewest DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. However, the matchup was still tough in Week 3, when Swift ran for 130 yards on 16 carries.
I’m not buying into that performance, as Tampa Bay has been stout all year, and Hurts’ touchdown equity worsens Swift’s outlook. Kenneth Gainwell will surely mix in for passing work and some rushing work, which makes me uninterested in Swift. Gainwell is an interesting value piece.
Dallas Goedert had a fairly disappointing season but could see an increase of work with Brown sidelined and Tampa Bay allowing the second-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends. He’s second on the team in targets when Hurts is blitzed, and the No. 1 option is out.
This is a great matchup for Cade Otton, as Philadelphia has allowed the ninth-most DraftKings points per game to opposing tight ends. He plays almost every snap, but he has struggled to earn targets. He’s a fine option.
Chase Edmonds has been mixing in a little bit as of late, but it still doesn’t provide much appeal.
With Brown out, it opens up the door for ancillary Eagle receivers. Quez Watkins is my favorite option, as he played almost 100% of the snaps last week when Smith was out. I expect him to be across from Smith tonight in 2WR sets. Julio Jones may be popular, but he still mostly just plays in some red zone sets.
Olamide Zaccheaus had two catches for 58 yards and a touchdown in the Week 3 matchup, but Watkins was out. Watkins is my preferred option of the three.
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NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Trey Palmer ($2,800 on DraftKings, $8,500 on FanDuel): Trey Palmer has been running a route on over 70% of the team dropbacks and sees targets deep down the field. He shares the same strong matchup as Evans and Godwin and is far cheaper. He’s a strong value option.
