Sunday night gives us potentially the most anticipated game of the weekend between the Rams and Lions. The Lions are listed as three-point home favorites, while the total sits at 51.5 points.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
NFL DFS Stud Picks
The Rams and Lions game is teeming with studs, as Amon-Ra St. Brown leads the way. St. Brown has found the end zone in four straight games, topping 100 receiving yards in three of four, and topping 22 DraftKings points in all four.
This matchup also plays right into St. Brown’s favor, as the Rams run Cover-3 at a high rate. St. Brown has averaged 2.94 yards per route run against zone coverage and leads the NFL in receiving yards against Cover-3. He’s the top overall option on the showdown slate.
A quartet of Rams come next, with rookie sensation Puka Nacua leading the way. This Detroit secondary has gotten roasted all year long, setting up Nacua and Cooper Kupp for big days. Detroit has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing receivers and has been especially vulnerable to the perimeter.
Detroit has allowed the fifth-most yards per target and yards per game to boundary receivers. Both receivers have great matchups, but Nacua plays about 70% of his snaps from the perimeter compared to 35% for Kupp, giving him a slightly better matchup.
Kyren Williams is priced in between the two receivers but has a far more difficult matchup. Detroit has allowed the fewest DraftKings points per game and third-fewest yards per carry to opposing backs.
Only two backs have topped 20 PPR points against Detroit since their bye in Week 10, and both of those backs did about half their damage through the air. Williams only has two targets over his past two games and spent a lot more time pass-blocking against the Giants.
His volume is impeccable, but with how many great options on this slate, you have to draw the line somewhere. I’ll be avoiding Williams on this showdown slate.
Matthew Stafford closed the year on a heater and now gets a matchup against Detroit, who has allowed the third-most DraftKings points per game to opposing quarterbacks on the year. The Lions do a good job getting after the passer, boasting the third-highest pressure rate in the league.
However, I trust McVay to scheme around this to give Stafford time to throw and dice up this secondary. Stafford is a top option on the slate.
The book is out on how to scheme against Jared Goff. However, it seems the Rams designed their defense with the sole purpose of letting Goff carve them up.
Goff has always struggled against man-heavy, aggressive defenses that get after the passers. The Rams play the fifth-lowest rate of man coverage and have a middling pressure rate and blitz rate. There are numerous strong options, and I do prefer St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs to Goff. However, Goff is a strong option nonetheless.
Gibbs is one of my favorite options on the slate. He’s now seeing some goal-line touches, with this backfield turning into a fairly even split.
The reason for my Gibbs optimism is the potential for increased receiving work. Detroit backs saw a bump in the passing game last year when they traded Hockenson, and I could see a similar bump with Sam LaPorta out of the lineup.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Sam LaPorta is listed as questionable and will likely see a little work on Friday, but I’m not expecting him to suit up on Sunday for Detroit.
This leaves David Montgomery to lead the midrange. He’s found the end zone in three straight games, which has salvaged his fantasy scores. He doesn’t see much work in the passing game, which makes him very touchdown-dependent. He’s a fine option against a Rams defense allowing a middling yards per carry, but I’m all in on Gibbs, which leads me to being out on Montgomery.
Demarcus Robinson and Josh Reynolds are two receivers in the midrange who I have a lot of interest in. Robinson has become a near-every-down player for Los Angeles as of late and has seen a 20% target share in 3-WR sets, narrowly trailing Kupp (25%) and Nacua (24%). Detroit’s secondary is abysmal, making Robinson a strong option.
With LaPorta likely out and Kalif Raymond unlikely to suit up, Josh Reynolds will likely see a bump in playing time and target share. A lot of people will flock to Jameson Williams, who is certainly a viable option. However, I prefer the veteran, as Goff trusts him and is tied with LaPorta for the team lead in end-zone targets.
Tyler Higbee is questionable, as he separated his shoulder in Week 17. If he misses, Davis Allen becomes interesting. as he’s played well when given time. It’s unclear what the split will be like if Higbee plays, so I’ll likely avoid the situation as a whole.
Tutu Atwell has struggled to get much run with the emergence of Demarcus Robinson, rendering him borderline unplayable in this spot.
If LaPorta does miss, James Mitchell and Brock Wright become viable cheap options. Mitchell is viable, as he ran 23 routes last week after LaPorta left injured.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones ($800 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): With Kalif Raymond out, Donovan Peoples-Jones becomes an interesting punt option. He played 37% of snaps last week with Williams out and Raymond getting injured. We could probably expect around 20-25% of the snaps if Raymond does miss, giving him some appeal.
