Sunday’s Wild Card action kicks off with the Bills and Steelers in Buffalo. The Bills are listed as 10-point home favorites, while the total sits at 36 points.
Editor’s note: After this article was written, the Steelers-Bills game was moved to Monday.
Don’t forget to check out our Lineup Builder if you like to hand build your lineups or our Lineup Optimizer for those of you who like to enter multiple lineups into tournaments.
Finally, make sure to check out all the projections available for purchase (Chris Raybon’s come included with a FantasyLabs subscription) within the FantasyLabs Models. Subscribers now have the option to purchase Derek Carty’s THE BLITZ from our Marketplace. Projections from One Week Season and Establish the Run are available if you’re a subscriber to those specific sites (our optimizer is a separate add-on feature).
You can also combine them to create your own aggregate DFS projections:
Editor’s note: After this article was written, the Steelers-Bills game was moved to Monday.
NFL DFS Stud Picks
Josh Allen unsurprisingly leads the way on this Showdown slate, as he’s the engine of Buffalo’s offense. Allen’s become essential in the run game, with 26 carries over the past two weeks and eight rushing touchdowns over the last six games. This is essential, as there are going to be frigid temperatures and massive winds in Buffalo, which will limit passing.
Buffalo dismantled this same Pittsburgh team last year 38-3. Obviously, the potential for lack of passing will hurt Buffalo, but I’m still expecting them to be able to move the ball. Allen is clearly the top option on the slate.
Without T.J. Watt, Pittsburgh will likely be unable to pressure Allen. When Allen is kept clean, Stefon Diggs has a 32% target share compared to 24% when Allen is under pressure. The potential lack of passing volume is worrisome, but Diggs is still one of the top bets for fantasy points outside of Allen, and Pittsburgh has been unimposing against opposing receivers.
James Cook will likely have his hands full, as he’s seen a lot of volume lately, and Buffalo likely skews more toward the run. He’s seen 15+ opportunities in five straight contests, including 19+ in three of his past four.
Pittsburgh has allowed the 12th-most yards per carry and 14th-most DraftKings points per game to opposing backs. The only downside for Cook is the role Allen is taking around the goal line, but Cook will see volume through the air and on the ground and can house a touchdown from far out.
George Pickens leads the way on Pittsburgh, fresh off one carry for three yards. That’s it. That was his only stat in the game against Baltimore. With Mason Rudolph under center, a third of Pickens’ targets have come deep downfield, which is bad news in a bad-weather game.
I’m expecting Pittsburgh to lean very run-heavy, giving me interest in Najee Harris. Harris has 53 carries over the past two weeks and seems to be Pittsburgh’s only shot at keeping this game close. Buffalo is middling on the ground, making Harris my top target on the Pittsburgh side.
Buffalo ranks inside the top eight in DraftKings points per game allowed to both quarterbacks and receivers, leaving me out on Rudolph and Pickens for this game.
Don’t forget to check out our SimLabs Lineup Generator to create advanced DFS lineups using the power of simulation:
NFL DFS Midrange Picks
Gabe Davis headlines the midrange, but I’m not expecting him to play this weekend. He missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday as he’s dealing with a PCL strain. I’d expect more Khalil Shakir for Buffalo, as he’ll shift closer to an every-down role.
Trent Sherfield benefitted from the Davis injury last week, catching three of four targets for 24 yards and a touchdown. Both he and Shakir gain appeal, with Davis likely out.
Diontae Johnson took a short pass 71 yards to the house last week, which salvaged his fantasy day. He’s playing the majority of his snaps on the outside, where Buffalo has been tough on opposing receivers. It’s hard for me to get excited about any of these Pittsburgh pass catchers with Rudolph under center in such a poor weather game.
Jaylen Warren figures to see a solid amount of work on the ground as well, spelling Harris and taking more of the passing-down work. He has 22 carries and nine targets over the past two weeks, and he’ll likely have a strong role with Pittsburgh surely opting to pound the rock.
Dalton Kincaid piques my interest on this slate, as I’m expecting Buffalo to shift to more 2TE sets with Davis sidelined. He has 15 targets over the past two weeks, catching 11 balls for 171 yards. He’s also operated a lot in the short areas of the field, which will be needed with the weather so poor.
Despite my interest in Kincaid, I still think Dawson Knox is a solid play. He comes in very cheap, and I expect Buffalo to utilize the tight ends more as opposed to elevating receivers behind Sherfield and Shakir.
Buffalo has been very strong against opposing tight ends this year, and Pat Freiermuth has struggled to earn targets in this Pittsburgh offense. I have little interest in the Pittsburgh tight end.
Ty Johnson and Leonard Fournette back up Cook, and Fournette has some appeal with his role around the goal line. Johnson was limited in practice with a concussion, so we’ll see about his status. I prefer Fournette.
Be sure to check out all the pick’ems Sleeper has to offer with Sleeper Fantasy promo code LABS1 for a $100 deposit match.
NFL DFS Value & Punt Picks
- Defenses & Kickers: These options are always in play in the single-game format, but make sure to correlate the rest of your lineup around them.
- Deonte Harty ($2,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Harty will likely work in as the WR4 if Davis misses. How fruitful this role is in poor weather remains to be seen.
- Allen Robinson II ($1,000 on DraftKings, $6,500 on FanDuel): Allen Robinson continues to play a ton of snaps, barely earn targets, and see his price drop. He’ll be out there a bunch if you need a punt.
- Calvin Austin III ($800 on DraftKings, $5,500 on FanDuel): With Pittsburgh likely needing creativity and a lot of volume on the ground in order to generate offense, we could see Austin utilized with some carries from the WR position.
YOU MAY ALSO LIKE
NFL DFS Trenches Report: Which Lines Have an Advantage in Week 1?
NFL DFS Week 15 Millionaire Maker Review: Breaking Down the Winning Lineup
NFL DFS Week 16 Main Slate Picks Breakdown: Can Commanders Slow Down Christian McCaffrey?
NFL DFS Showdown: Lineup Optimizer Rules and My Favorite Angle in Cowboys-Titans
